France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for France was off by 1.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 3,208 MW (5.7%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 07:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Paris).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for France was off by 1.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 3,208 MW (5.7%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 07:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, France came 5 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 747 MW, against average demand of 50,351 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 48% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error1.5%

Bias-0.1%

Hours within 5%99%

Worst miss3,208 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-49 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 3,208 MW (5.7%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 07:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 53,475 MW, reported 56,683 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for France over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 15:00	58,975 MW	60,650 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	57,384 MW	59,213 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	59,153 MW	60,025 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	63,736 MW	63,825 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	64,171 MW	65,075 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	60,206 MW	61,488 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	56,858 MW	58,000 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	57,034 MW	56,863 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	56,705 MW	57,225 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	55,199 MW	54,913 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	53,554 MW	53,200 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	51,402 MW	51,500 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	49,430 MW	49,375 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	49,243 MW	49,100 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	51,687 MW	51,363 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	56,718 MW	56,000 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	61,365 MW	61,063 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	63,786 MW	63,863 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	64,327 MW	64,050 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	63,443 MW	63,000 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	62,879 MW	62,213 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	62,719 MW	61,925 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	60,349 MW	60,625 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	59,790 MW	59,975 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	58,012 MW	58,500 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	55,958 MW	56,538 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	57,760 MW	57,963 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	61,548 MW	62,000 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	61,979 MW	62,475 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	59,013 MW	59,300 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	56,383 MW	56,238 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	57,199 MW	55,638 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	56,823 MW	56,863 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	55,064 MW	54,713 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	53,620 MW	52,625 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	51,169 MW	50,638 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	48,615 MW	48,250 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	47,883 MW	47,075 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	48,651 MW	47,700 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	50,691 MW	49,813 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	52,585 MW	51,813 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	54,837 MW	53,738 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	56,311 MW	55,838 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	56,579 MW	56,700 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	56,292 MW	56,438 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	57,210 MW	57,450 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	54,987 MW	56,500 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	54,127 MW	54,875 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	52,878 MW	53,925 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	51,541 MW	52,613 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	53,218 MW	53,775 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	56,785 MW	57,050 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	57,310 MW	58,250 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	54,864 MW	55,963 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	52,902 MW	53,900 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	53,863 MW	54,125 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	54,112 MW	55,350 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	52,877 MW	53,188 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	51,461 MW	51,450 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	49,306 MW	49,388 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	46,880 MW	46,863 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	45,978 MW	45,775 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	46,369 MW	45,925 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	47,659 MW	47,338 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	48,821 MW	48,538 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	50,720 MW	49,738 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	52,929 MW	51,638 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	54,476 MW	53,075 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	55,521 MW	53,700 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	56,987 MW	54,638 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	54,529 MW	52,925 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	53,547 MW	50,550 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	52,518 MW	49,638 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	51,159 MW	48,713 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	53,187 MW	50,113 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	57,029 MW	54,213 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	58,023 MW	55,988 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	55,403 MW	53,813 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	52,924 MW	51,888 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	52,928 MW	51,825 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	52,888 MW	53,125 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	51,439 MW	51,788 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	49,802 MW	50,113 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	47,771 MW	48,738 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	45,703 MW	46,788 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	45,612 MW	46,325 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	48,162 MW	48,638 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	53,346 MW	53,363 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	58,106 MW	58,488 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	60,641 MW	60,550 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	61,535 MW	60,963 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	61,507 MW	60,713 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	61,813 MW	60,713 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	62,133 MW	61,175 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	60,839 MW	60,163 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	60,666 MW	59,150 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	59,116 MW	58,238 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	57,704 MW	57,513 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	58,814 MW	58,400 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	61,493 MW	61,738 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	61,394 MW	62,088 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	57,720 MW	57,975 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	54,508 MW	54,225 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	53,927 MW	53,213 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	53,364 MW	53,200 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	51,314 MW	50,700 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	49,789 MW	48,850 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	47,312 MW	46,900 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	45,267 MW	44,525 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	44,879 MW	43,900 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	46,832 MW	46,150 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	51,505 MW	50,638 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	55,704 MW	55,888 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	57,460 MW	58,363 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	58,541 MW	59,363 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	58,433 MW	59,200 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	58,987 MW	59,250 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	60,144 MW	59,750 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	58,257 MW	58,888 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	57,958 MW	57,963 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	56,413 MW	56,675 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	54,767 MW	55,350 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	54,985 MW	56,313 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	57,603 MW	59,688 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	57,650 MW	60,463 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	54,391 MW	56,275 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	51,318 MW	52,225 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	51,148 MW	50,863 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	50,639 MW	50,738 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	48,683 MW	48,375 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	47,336 MW	46,575 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	44,453 MW	44,063 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	41,669 MW	41,250 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	40,734 MW	40,113 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	41,023 MW	40,013 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	42,703 MW	41,475 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	43,678 MW	44,400 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	45,374 MW	46,738 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	47,484 MW	48,300 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	49,034 MW	49,663 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	50,004 MW	51,250 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	52,057 MW	53,063 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	50,297 MW	51,963 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	49,443 MW	50,538 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	48,259 MW	49,238 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	46,937 MW	47,863 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	48,765 MW	48,650 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	52,476 MW	51,888 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	53,425 MW	53,100 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	50,858 MW	50,325 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	48,251 MW	47,638 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	48,314 MW	46,963 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	48,113 MW	48,138 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	46,714 MW	46,400 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	45,151 MW	44,475 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	43,116 MW	42,888 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	41,074 MW	40,788 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	40,872 MW	40,188 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	43,157 MW	42,188 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	48,178 MW	46,950 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	52,825 MW	52,200 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	55,579 MW	54,400 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	57,329 MW	55,663 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	57,730 MW	56,288 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	58,183 MW	57,288 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	59,007 MW	58,100 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	57,960 MW	57,550 MW
12 Nov, 14:00	58,105 MW	57,138 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fr_2026,
  title = {{France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/

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France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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