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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 10 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Spain was off by 1.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 13 October to 10 November 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,518 MW (5.9%) too low at 8 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Madrid).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Spain was off by 1.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 13 October to 10 November 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,518 MW (5.9%) too low at 8 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Spain came 3 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 293 MW, against average demand of 26,051 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 45% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 13 October to 10 November 2026
Average error1.1%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%99%
Worst miss1,518 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-46 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,518 MW (5.9%) too low at 8 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 24,121 MW, reported 25,639 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-10. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 10 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Spain day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Spain over the last 7 days of the window, to 10 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 3 Nov, 15:004 Nov, 15:005 Nov, 15:006 Nov, 15:007 Nov, 15:008 Nov, 15:009 Nov, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Spain over the last 7 days of the window, to 10 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-10
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
3 Nov, 15:0029,091 MW28,928 MW
3 Nov, 16:0029,391 MW29,330 MW
3 Nov, 17:0029,968 MW30,131 MW
3 Nov, 18:0031,091 MW31,350 MW
3 Nov, 19:0032,044 MW32,068 MW
3 Nov, 20:0032,540 MW32,422 MW
3 Nov, 21:0031,293 MW31,221 MW
3 Nov, 22:0028,269 MW28,151 MW
3 Nov, 23:0025,833 MW25,618 MW
4 Nov, 00:0024,112 MW23,648 MW
4 Nov, 01:0022,852 MW22,357 MW
4 Nov, 02:0022,034 MW21,576 MW
4 Nov, 03:0021,703 MW21,218 MW
4 Nov, 04:0021,731 MW21,264 MW
4 Nov, 05:0022,510 MW21,988 MW
4 Nov, 06:0025,367 MW24,940 MW
4 Nov, 07:0029,014 MW28,749 MW
4 Nov, 08:0030,892 MW30,404 MW
4 Nov, 09:0031,243 MW30,401 MW
4 Nov, 10:0030,890 MW29,718 MW
4 Nov, 11:0030,248 MW29,001 MW
4 Nov, 12:0029,966 MW28,936 MW
4 Nov, 13:0030,295 MW29,155 MW
4 Nov, 14:0030,296 MW29,185 MW
4 Nov, 15:0030,250 MW29,200 MW
4 Nov, 16:0030,460 MW29,678 MW
4 Nov, 17:0031,002 MW30,436 MW
4 Nov, 18:0032,475 MW31,858 MW
4 Nov, 19:0033,296 MW32,705 MW
4 Nov, 20:0033,815 MW33,146 MW
4 Nov, 21:0032,746 MW31,935 MW
4 Nov, 22:0029,461 MW28,809 MW
4 Nov, 23:0026,776 MW26,027 MW
5 Nov, 00:0024,910 MW24,681 MW
5 Nov, 01:0023,671 MW23,351 MW
5 Nov, 02:0022,878 MW22,499 MW
5 Nov, 03:0022,592 MW22,143 MW
5 Nov, 04:0022,598 MW22,162 MW
5 Nov, 05:0023,333 MW22,879 MW
5 Nov, 06:0026,213 MW25,824 MW
5 Nov, 07:0030,075 MW29,630 MW
5 Nov, 08:0031,606 MW31,386 MW
5 Nov, 09:0031,692 MW31,536 MW
5 Nov, 10:0030,845 MW30,821 MW
5 Nov, 11:0029,693 MW30,215 MW
5 Nov, 12:0029,419 MW29,818 MW
5 Nov, 13:0029,503 MW30,016 MW
5 Nov, 14:0029,639 MW30,025 MW
5 Nov, 15:0029,555 MW29,921 MW
5 Nov, 16:0030,275 MW30,324 MW
5 Nov, 17:0031,240 MW31,171 MW
5 Nov, 18:0032,706 MW32,756 MW
5 Nov, 19:0033,735 MW33,622 MW
5 Nov, 20:0034,374 MW33,964 MW
5 Nov, 21:0033,227 MW32,908 MW
5 Nov, 22:0030,050 MW29,728 MW
5 Nov, 23:0027,331 MW26,989 MW
6 Nov, 00:0025,597 MW25,221 MW
6 Nov, 01:0024,139 MW23,805 MW
6 Nov, 02:0023,227 MW22,986 MW
6 Nov, 03:0022,940 MW22,642 MW
6 Nov, 04:0022,733 MW22,625 MW
6 Nov, 05:0023,385 MW23,336 MW
6 Nov, 06:0026,381 MW26,240 MW
6 Nov, 07:0030,318 MW30,072 MW
6 Nov, 08:0031,958 MW31,783 MW
6 Nov, 09:0031,645 MW31,830 MW
6 Nov, 10:0030,345 MW30,770 MW
6 Nov, 11:0029,452 MW29,695 MW
6 Nov, 12:0028,982 MW29,329 MW
6 Nov, 13:0029,095 MW29,468 MW
6 Nov, 14:0029,157 MW29,398 MW
6 Nov, 15:0029,435 MW29,299 MW
6 Nov, 16:0029,925 MW29,762 MW
6 Nov, 17:0030,918 MW30,637 MW
6 Nov, 18:0032,123 MW32,119 MW
6 Nov, 19:0032,501 MW32,730 MW
6 Nov, 20:0032,863 MW32,923 MW
6 Nov, 21:0031,845 MW31,924 MW
6 Nov, 22:0028,874 MW29,105 MW
6 Nov, 23:0026,421 MW26,625 MW
7 Nov, 00:0024,702 MW24,896 MW
7 Nov, 01:0023,142 MW23,398 MW
7 Nov, 02:0021,850 MW22,327 MW
7 Nov, 03:0021,413 MW21,728 MW
7 Nov, 04:0021,069 MW21,396 MW
7 Nov, 05:0021,130 MW21,361 MW
7 Nov, 06:0021,943 MW22,354 MW
7 Nov, 07:0023,198 MW23,600 MW
7 Nov, 08:0024,227 MW24,936 MW
7 Nov, 09:0025,712 MW26,301 MW
7 Nov, 10:0025,936 MW26,722 MW
7 Nov, 11:0025,575 MW26,371 MW
7 Nov, 12:0025,216 MW25,912 MW
7 Nov, 13:0025,559 MW26,209 MW
7 Nov, 14:0025,728 MW26,176 MW
7 Nov, 15:0025,356 MW25,677 MW
7 Nov, 16:0025,367 MW25,614 MW
7 Nov, 17:0025,777 MW26,324 MW
7 Nov, 18:0027,314 MW27,699 MW
7 Nov, 19:0027,896 MW28,334 MW
7 Nov, 20:0028,389 MW28,671 MW
7 Nov, 21:0028,149 MW28,198 MW
7 Nov, 22:0026,215 MW26,229 MW
7 Nov, 23:0024,281 MW24,279 MW
8 Nov, 00:0022,570 MW22,438 MW
8 Nov, 01:0021,154 MW21,004 MW
8 Nov, 02:0020,150 MW20,011 MW
8 Nov, 03:0019,635 MW19,459 MW
8 Nov, 04:0019,254 MW19,180 MW
8 Nov, 05:0019,274 MW19,210 MW
8 Nov, 06:0019,826 MW19,903 MW
8 Nov, 07:0020,439 MW20,613 MW
8 Nov, 08:0021,027 MW21,271 MW
8 Nov, 09:0022,637 MW22,420 MW
8 Nov, 10:0023,688 MW23,199 MW
8 Nov, 11:0024,159 MW23,309 MW
8 Nov, 12:0024,803 MW23,370 MW
8 Nov, 13:0025,639 MW24,121 MW
8 Nov, 14:0025,796 MW24,335 MW
8 Nov, 15:0024,632 MW23,827 MW
8 Nov, 16:0024,264 MW23,833 MW
8 Nov, 17:0024,776 MW24,476 MW
8 Nov, 18:0026,327 MW26,141 MW
8 Nov, 19:0026,993 MW26,978 MW
8 Nov, 20:0027,910 MW27,674 MW
8 Nov, 21:0027,570 MW27,381 MW
8 Nov, 22:0025,744 MW25,666 MW
8 Nov, 23:0023,566 MW23,617 MW
9 Nov, 00:0021,853 MW22,178 MW
9 Nov, 01:0020,683 MW20,907 MW
9 Nov, 02:0019,655 MW20,152 MW
9 Nov, 03:0019,723 MW19,903 MW
9 Nov, 04:0019,623 MW19,925 MW
9 Nov, 05:0020,437 MW20,764 MW
9 Nov, 06:0023,481 MW23,840 MW
9 Nov, 07:0027,241 MW27,501 MW
9 Nov, 08:0028,989 MW29,399 MW
9 Nov, 09:0029,628 MW30,133 MW
9 Nov, 10:0029,881 MW30,012 MW
9 Nov, 11:0030,252 MW29,935 MW
9 Nov, 12:0030,760 MW30,102 MW
9 Nov, 13:0030,486 MW30,349 MW
9 Nov, 14:0029,801 MW29,957 MW
9 Nov, 15:0029,364 MW29,578 MW
9 Nov, 16:0029,283 MW29,560 MW
9 Nov, 17:0029,638 MW30,152 MW
9 Nov, 18:0031,083 MW31,295 MW
9 Nov, 19:0031,698 MW31,939 MW
9 Nov, 20:0032,586 MW32,360 MW
9 Nov, 21:0031,379 MW31,220 MW
9 Nov, 22:0028,388 MW28,112 MW
9 Nov, 23:0026,059 MW25,374 MW
10 Nov, 00:0024,182 MW23,832 MW
10 Nov, 01:0022,711 MW22,465 MW
10 Nov, 02:0021,840 MW21,597 MW
10 Nov, 03:0021,604 MW21,392 MW
10 Nov, 04:0021,431 MW21,333 MW
10 Nov, 05:0022,265 MW22,033 MW
10 Nov, 06:0025,194 MW24,891 MW
10 Nov, 07:0029,008 MW28,682 MW
10 Nov, 08:0030,718 MW30,374 MW
10 Nov, 09:0030,507 MW30,661 MW
10 Nov, 10:00n/a30,307 MW
10 Nov, 11:00n/a30,101 MW
10 Nov, 12:0029,621 MW30,334 MW
10 Nov, 13:0030,175 MW30,648 MW
10 Nov, 14:0030,246 MW30,470 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/es/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-10. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/es/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_es_2026,
  title = {{Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-10. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/es/}
}

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