SEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SEC was off by 31.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 717 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -31.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 194 MW (42.4%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 19:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for SEC was off by 31.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 717 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -31.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 194 MW (42.4%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 19:00 EST (UTC-05:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SEC came 51 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 88 MW, against average demand of 276 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

717 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error31.4%

Bias-31.4%

Hours within 5%0%

Worst miss194 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-88 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 194 MW (42.4%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 19:00 EST (UTC-05:00): forecast 264 MW, reported 458 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SEC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:00	296 MW	184 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	318 MW	197 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	359 MW	213 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	395 MW	234 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	415 MW	252 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	443 MW	267 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	442 MW	277 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	441 MW	283 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	442 MW	285 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	440 MW	282 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	397 MW	275 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	458 MW	264 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	n/a	248 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	345 MW	229 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	305 MW	206 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	266 MW	182 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	249 MW	167 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	225 MW	154 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	221 MW	146 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	214 MW	142 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	219 MW	144 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	231 MW	153 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	257 MW	167 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	275 MW	174 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	299 MW	183 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	326 MW	197 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	368 MW	215 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	368 MW	236 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	346 MW	255 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	440 MW	270 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	432 MW	277 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	465 MW	282 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	441 MW	281 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	418 MW	273 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	400 MW	260 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	373 MW	246 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	350 MW	229 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	325 MW	213 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	300 MW	197 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	268 MW	179 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	240 MW	160 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	217 MW	148 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	207 MW	139 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	203 MW	133 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	200 MW	132 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	197 MW	133 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	208 MW	141 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	230 MW	153 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	252 MW	168 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	274 MW	184 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	294 MW	198 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	322 MW	215 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	346 MW	228 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	369 MW	237 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	379 MW	246 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	388 MW	251 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	370 MW	244 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	348 MW	234 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	329 MW	224 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	302 MW	206 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	277 MW	192 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	263 MW	180 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	238 MW	165 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	216 MW	153 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	197 MW	132 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	182 MW	123 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	172 MW	118 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	171 MW	114 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	170 MW	115 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	176 MW	118 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	188 MW	128 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	210 MW	142 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	238 MW	159 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	251 MW	169 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	271 MW	179 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	290 MW	194 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	313 MW	212 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	341 MW	228 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	360 MW	237 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	363 MW	244 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	361 MW	242 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	348 MW	237 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	345 MW	235 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	325 MW	223 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	298 MW	208 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	273 MW	191 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	243 MW	169 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	214 MW	148 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	196 MW	131 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	180 MW	122 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	177 MW	117 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	178 MW	115 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	187 MW	120 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	205 MW	134 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	229 MW	154 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	249 MW	163 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	255 MW	166 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	265 MW	167 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	276 MW	174 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	299 MW	184 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	323 MW	195 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	339 MW	206 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	358 MW	215 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	366 MW	223 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	367 MW	228 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	360 MW	231 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	352 MW	234 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	331 MW	225 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	307 MW	211 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	277 MW	193 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	245 MW	171 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	215 MW	150 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	195 MW	130 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	184 MW	122 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	177 MW	118 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	176 MW	117 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	184 MW	123 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	205 MW	138 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	239 MW	159 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	253 MW	168 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	259 MW	168 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	263 MW	167 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	277 MW	170 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	292 MW	178 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	311 MW	188 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	331 MW	199 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	351 MW	208 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	367 MW	219 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	359 MW	226 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	360 MW	229 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	358 MW	233 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	335 MW	225 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	310 MW	211 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	286 MW	191 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	254 MW	171 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	228 MW	152 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	216 MW	135 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	211 MW	123 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	203 MW	117 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	195 MW	111 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	192 MW	114 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	207 MW	124 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	225 MW	141 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	242 MW	148 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	260 MW	152 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	271 MW	161 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	285 MW	171 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	311 MW	185 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	331 MW	200 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	352 MW	212 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	369 MW	224 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	369 MW	233 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	355 MW	234 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	367 MW	238 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	411 MW	242 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	335 MW	229 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	309 MW	215 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	284 MW	192 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	248 MW	171 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	218 MW	150 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	160 MW	134 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	151 MW	125 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	145 MW	120 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	145 MW	117 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	152 MW	122 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	166 MW	136 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	185 MW	155 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	192 MW	164 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (717 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sec/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sec/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_sec_2026,
  title = {{SEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sec/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sec/

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SEC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related