TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TIDC was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 716 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 54 MW (15.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for TIDC was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 716 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 54 MW (15.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TIDC came 14 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 7 MW, against average demand of 291 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 53% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

716 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026

Average error2.5%

Bias+0.9%

Hours within 5%86%

Worst miss54 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+2 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 54 MW (15.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 415 MW, reported 361 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TIDC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:00	277 MW	272 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	301 MW	295 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	303 MW	301 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	288 MW	294 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	276 MW	285 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	269 MW	276 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	268 MW	272 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	271 MW	275 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	279 MW	281 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	291 MW	291 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	304 MW	304 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	320 MW	317 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	331 MW	330 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	327 MW	328 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	322 MW	323 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	317 MW	316 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	308 MW	305 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	293 MW	290 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	281 MW	277 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	270 MW	269 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	262 MW	260 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	258 MW	255 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	258 MW	253 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	265 MW	259 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	278 MW	272 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	300 MW	295 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	306 MW	304 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	293 MW	299 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	282 MW	292 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	278 MW	286 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	280 MW	280 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	287 MW	284 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	294 MW	287 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	293 MW	294 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	301 MW	304 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	315 MW	313 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	326 MW	321 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	318 MW	319 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	314 MW	313 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	307 MW	305 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	300 MW	296 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	288 MW	284 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	276 MW	270 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	263 MW	262 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	253 MW	252 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	246 MW	246 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	245 MW	244 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	246 MW	247 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	250 MW	253 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	259 MW	264 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	260 MW	270 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	253 MW	271 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	245 MW	269 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	239 MW	264 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	236 MW	261 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	238 MW	265 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	245 MW	270 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	260 MW	275 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	276 MW	281 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	289 MW	289 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	298 MW	300 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	295 MW	299 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	287 MW	292 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	282 MW	287 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	276 MW	280 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	266 MW	269 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	254 MW	257 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	242 MW	243 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	235 MW	236 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	230 MW	231 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	229 MW	230 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	228 MW	232 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	232 MW	232 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	237 MW	237 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	236 MW	235 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	228 MW	233 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	223 MW	230 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	218 MW	225 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	220 MW	225 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	226 MW	230 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	234 MW	238 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	247 MW	249 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	267 MW	264 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	283 MW	278 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	298 MW	292 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	298 MW	292 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	294 MW	289 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	289 MW	285 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	281 MW	276 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	268 MW	264 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	255 MW	252 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	246 MW	242 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	240 MW	237 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	238 MW	235 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	240 MW	236 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	248 MW	244 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	265 MW	261 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	293 MW	288 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	302 MW	300 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	291 MW	294 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	281 MW	288 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	276 MW	285 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	276 MW	285 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	284 MW	291 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	296 MW	299 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	309 MW	307 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	324 MW	316 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	328 MW	324 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	339 MW	334 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	333 MW	330 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	327 MW	322 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	320 MW	315 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	308 MW	303 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	294 MW	287 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	278 MW	274 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	265 MW	270 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	258 MW	260 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	253 MW	254 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	252 MW	255 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	259 MW	261 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	273 MW	275 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	296 MW	298 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	302 MW	307 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	292 MW	300 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	282 MW	289 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	277 MW	281 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	276 MW	277 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	282 MW	281 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	292 MW	290 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	306 MW	298 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	319 MW	308 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	328 MW	319 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	337 MW	330 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	332 MW	330 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	324 MW	326 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	319 MW	321 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	309 MW	311 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	294 MW	296 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	280 MW	281 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	270 MW	265 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	260 MW	257 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	254 MW	252 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	254 MW	252 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	260 MW	258 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	272 MW	271 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	290 MW	289 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	294 MW	296 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	288 MW	293 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	281 MW	289 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	276 MW	288 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	276 MW	290 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	283 MW	297 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	292 MW	306 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	306 MW	314 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	322 MW	322 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	331 MW	330 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	338 MW	340 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	333 MW	335 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	326 MW	328 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	320 MW	321 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	310 MW	311 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	294 MW	294 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	279 MW	280 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	266 MW	266 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	260 MW	258 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	254 MW	253 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	255 MW	254 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	261 MW	260 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (716 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tidc_2026,
  title = {{TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/

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TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related