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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Croatia was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 77% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 279 MW (10.9%) too high at 6 Nov 2026, 20:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Zagreb).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Croatia was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 77% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 279 MW (10.9%) too high at 6 Nov 2026, 20:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Croatia came 23 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 66 MW, against average demand of 2,045 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 65% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error3.3%
Bias+1.3%
Hours within 5%77%
Worst miss279 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+25 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 279 MW (10.9%) too high at 6 Nov 2026, 20:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 2,839 MW, reported 2,560 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Croatia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Croatia over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 5 Nov, 15:006 Nov, 15:007 Nov, 15:008 Nov, 15:009 Nov, 15:0010 Nov, 15:0011 Nov, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Croatia over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 15:002,323 MW2,350 MW
5 Nov, 16:002,490 MW2,454 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,680 MW2,730 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,687 MW2,657 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,680 MW2,681 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,601 MW2,617 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,508 MW2,577 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,292 MW2,379 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,048 MW2,157 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,828 MW1,786 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,707 MW1,674 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,639 MW1,626 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,629 MW1,608 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,664 MW1,794 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,822 MW1,906 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,181 MW2,362 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,393 MW2,448 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,419 MW2,379 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,331 MW2,174 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,200 MW1,981 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,184 MW1,906 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,147 MW1,899 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,148 MW1,959 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,187 MW2,083 MW
6 Nov, 15:002,275 MW2,280 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,455 MW2,557 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,663 MW2,823 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,651 MW2,855 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,645 MW2,866 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,560 MW2,839 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,472 MW2,674 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,271 MW2,466 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,043 MW2,158 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,853 MW1,807 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,731 MW1,760 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,663 MW1,698 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,638 MW1,686 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,642 MW1,608 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,731 MW1,765 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,909 MW1,869 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,028 MW1,999 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,116 MW2,062 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,052 MW2,020 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,949 MW1,973 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,945 MW2,014 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,020 MW1,969 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,076 MW1,949 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,136 MW2,084 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,216 MW2,179 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,333 MW2,410 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,491 MW2,550 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,496 MW2,441 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,473 MW2,430 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,402 MW2,407 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,346 MW2,314 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,195 MW2,150 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,994 MW1,928 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,808 MW1,805 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,689 MW1,668 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,619 MW1,579 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,579 MW1,538 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,580 MW1,551 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,630 MW1,614 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,726 MW1,726 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,802 MW1,787 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,926 MW1,883 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,012 MW1,899 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,017 MW1,902 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,048 MW1,934 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,079 MW1,916 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,041 MW1,910 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,004 MW1,956 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,079 MW2,072 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,183 MW2,193 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,334 MW2,361 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,351 MW2,341 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,368 MW2,389 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,342 MW2,374 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,309 MW2,282 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,143 MW2,138 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,925 MW1,928 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,715 MW1,783 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,632 MW1,684 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,568 MW1,600 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,564 MW1,621 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,630 MW1,437 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,800 MW1,733 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,179 MW1,968 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,407 MW2,366 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,470 MW2,492 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,409 MW2,373 MW
9 Nov, 10:002,289 MW2,269 MW
9 Nov, 11:002,248 MW2,166 MW
9 Nov, 12:002,204 MW2,143 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,224 MW2,147 MW
9 Nov, 14:002,265 MW2,180 MW
9 Nov, 15:002,377 MW2,315 MW
9 Nov, 16:002,518 MW2,481 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,668 MW2,664 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,669 MW2,700 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,684 MW2,683 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,620 MW2,651 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,532 MW2,432 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,285 MW2,249 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,009 MW1,968 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,804 MW1,922 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,691 MW1,809 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,620 MW1,816 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,602 MW1,851 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,640 MW1,839 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,805 MW1,908 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,176 MW2,261 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,405 MW2,440 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,519 MW2,540 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,540 MW2,501 MW
10 Nov, 10:002,509 MW2,477 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,512 MW2,544 MW
10 Nov, 12:002,539 MW2,428 MW
10 Nov, 13:002,504 MW2,253 MW
10 Nov, 14:002,475 MW2,270 MW
10 Nov, 15:002,470 MW2,296 MW
10 Nov, 16:002,584 MW2,662 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,677 MW2,666 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,649 MW2,624 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,645 MW2,530 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,553 MW2,614 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,457 MW2,511 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,250 MW2,284 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,999 MW2,035 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,798 MW1,916 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,694 MW1,793 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,624 MW1,744 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,609 MW1,771 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,632 MW1,777 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,786 MW1,809 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,153 MW2,223 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,388 MW2,423 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,488 MW2,559 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,521 MW2,577 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,497 MW2,516 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,541 MW2,506 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,554 MW2,544 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,503 MW2,507 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,478 MW2,490 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,445 MW2,493 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,533 MW2,546 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,610 MW2,683 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,577 MW2,683 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,572 MW2,690 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,497 MW2,649 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,398 MW2,500 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,180 MW2,308 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,948 MW2,035 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,750 MW1,857 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,637 MW1,744 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,573 MW1,701 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,557 MW1,744 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,573 MW1,725 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,723 MW1,896 MW
12 Nov, 06:002,088 MW2,181 MW
12 Nov, 07:002,306 MW2,470 MW
12 Nov, 08:002,425 MW2,503 MW
12 Nov, 09:002,488 MW2,563 MW
12 Nov, 10:002,466 MW2,558 MW
12 Nov, 11:002,507 MW2,574 MW
12 Nov, 12:002,497 MW2,612 MW
12 Nov, 13:002,433 MW2,601 MW
12 Nov, 14:002,438 MW2,567 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hr/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hr/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_hr_2026,
  title = {{Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hr/}
}

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