Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy South was off by 10.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 30% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 872 MW (27.8%) too low at 29 Oct 2026, 08:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy South was off by 10.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 30% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 872 MW (27.8%) too low at 29 Oct 2026, 08:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy South came 42 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 213 MW, against average demand of 2,156 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 53% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error10.2%

Bias+1.4%

Hours within 5%30%

Worst miss872 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-0 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 872 MW (27.8%) too low at 29 Oct 2026, 08:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 2,260 MW, reported 3,131 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy South over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:00	2,111 MW	2,338 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	2,221 MW	2,316 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	2,398 MW	2,422 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	2,568 MW	2,647 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	2,552 MW	2,734 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	2,669 MW	2,818 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	2,658 MW	2,804 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	2,472 MW	2,513 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	2,057 MW	2,301 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	1,800 MW	2,075 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	1,637 MW	1,891 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	1,547 MW	1,805 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	1,468 MW	1,738 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	1,475 MW	1,735 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	1,557 MW	1,742 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	1,603 MW	1,823 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	1,782 MW	1,987 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	2,052 MW	2,220 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	2,100 MW	2,266 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	2,153 MW	2,248 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	2,036 MW	2,225 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	2,117 MW	2,230 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	2,332 MW	2,330 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	2,262 MW	2,300 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	2,228 MW	2,268 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	2,291 MW	2,397 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	2,307 MW	2,458 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	2,383 MW	2,658 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	2,396 MW	2,656 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	2,400 MW	2,655 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	2,388 MW	2,617 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	2,151 MW	2,396 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	1,902 MW	2,233 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	1,678 MW	2,080 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	1,591 MW	1,834 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	1,569 MW	1,675 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	1,487 MW	1,660 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	1,455 MW	1,667 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	1,502 MW	1,646 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	1,579 MW	1,677 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	1,741 MW	1,869 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	1,911 MW	1,978 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	2,059 MW	2,095 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	2,062 MW	2,091 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	2,057 MW	2,081 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	2,076 MW	2,121 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	2,039 MW	2,140 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	1,936 MW	2,106 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	1,815 MW	2,049 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	1,713 MW	2,078 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	1,861 MW	2,208 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	2,096 MW	2,348 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	2,122 MW	2,393 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	2,148 MW	2,430 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	2,089 MW	2,398 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	1,863 MW	2,238 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	1,646 MW	2,127 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	1,565 MW	2,005 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	1,464 MW	1,772 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	1,422 MW	1,525 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	1,314 MW	1,444 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	1,281 MW	1,399 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	1,268 MW	1,407 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	1,338 MW	1,377 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	1,367 MW	1,456 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	1,446 MW	1,450 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	1,616 MW	1,526 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	1,837 MW	1,635 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	1,987 MW	1,897 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	1,930 MW	1,991 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	1,895 MW	2,020 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	1,758 MW	1,929 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	1,539 MW	1,765 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	1,465 MW	1,790 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	1,631 MW	1,927 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	1,799 MW	2,060 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	1,855 MW	2,130 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	1,861 MW	2,195 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	1,937 MW	2,207 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	1,863 MW	2,062 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	1,677 MW	1,967 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	1,462 MW	1,800 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	1,471 MW	1,516 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	1,412 MW	1,457 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	1,362 MW	1,418 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	1,302 MW	1,385 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	1,288 MW	1,425 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	1,353 MW	1,502 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	1,426 MW	1,683 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	1,676 MW	1,933 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	1,897 MW	2,045 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	2,103 MW	2,122 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	2,164 MW	2,155 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	2,133 MW	2,183 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	2,124 MW	2,207 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	2,052 MW	2,203 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	1,987 MW	2,213 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	1,993 MW	2,263 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	2,042 MW	2,348 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	2,255 MW	2,417 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	2,232 MW	2,457 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	2,294 MW	2,473 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	2,261 MW	2,478 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	2,126 MW	2,318 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	1,901 MW	2,135 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	1,646 MW	1,880 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	1,603 MW	1,768 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	1,469 MW	1,670 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	1,408 MW	1,672 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	1,393 MW	1,618 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	1,444 MW	1,608 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	1,521 MW	1,640 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	1,653 MW	1,845 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	2,071 MW	2,024 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	2,309 MW	2,155 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	2,376 MW	2,205 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	2,384 MW	2,180 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	2,319 MW	2,165 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	2,284 MW	2,180 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	2,227 MW	2,141 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	2,275 MW	2,095 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	2,242 MW	2,126 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	2,414 MW	2,205 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	2,558 MW	2,338 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	2,523 MW	2,377 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	2,468 MW	2,403 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	2,421 MW	2,388 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	2,359 MW	2,152 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	2,216 MW	1,952 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	2,012 MW	1,808 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	1,868 MW	1,720 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	1,744 MW	1,660 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	1,588 MW	1,575 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	1,528 MW	1,555 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	1,488 MW	1,545 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	1,577 MW	1,604 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	1,802 MW	1,703 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	2,123 MW	1,908 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	2,045 MW	2,048 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	2,178 MW	2,100 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	2,228 MW	2,125 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	2,166 MW	2,125 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	2,245 MW	2,105 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	2,242 MW	2,068 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	2,001 MW	2,040 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	2,123 MW	2,110 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	2,371 MW	2,198 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	2,555 MW	2,382 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	2,513 MW	2,528 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	2,511 MW	2,558 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	2,488 MW	2,505 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	2,362 MW	2,289 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	2,178 MW	2,162 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	1,958 MW	1,953 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	1,729 MW	1,712 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	1,909 MW	1,603 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	2,013 MW	1,564 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	1,843 MW	1,565 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	1,881 MW	1,570 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	2,004 MW	1,620 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	2,317 MW	1,763 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	2,220 MW	2,080 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	2,042 MW	2,180 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	1,933 MW	2,190 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	1,656 MW	2,185 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	1,838 MW	2,211 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	2,096 MW	2,214 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	2,026 MW	2,178 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sud/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sud/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_sud_2026,
  title = {{Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sud/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sud/

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Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related