Statistics
Page built 2026-11-12
Data as of 2026-11-12
Search
Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway West (NO5) was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 180 MW (8.5%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway West (NO5) was off by 2.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 180 MW (8.5%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway West (NO5) came 13 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 49 MW, against average demand of 2,061 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 28% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.4%
Bias-1.5%
Hours within 5%91%
Worst miss180 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-32 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 180 MW (8.5%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,932 MW, reported 2,112 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway West (NO5) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway West (NO5) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway West (NO5) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:002,146 MW2,157 MW
5 Nov, 15:002,179 MW2,180 MW
5 Nov, 16:002,233 MW2,211 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,264 MW2,225 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,248 MW2,234 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,251 MW2,237 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,257 MW2,240 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,253 MW2,211 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,216 MW2,179 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,149 MW2,113 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,067 MW2,075 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,028 MW2,050 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,017 MW2,025 MW
6 Nov, 03:002,009 MW2,012 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,012 MW1,997 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,030 MW2,055 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,159 MW2,118 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,305 MW2,201 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,352 MW2,245 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,335 MW2,259 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,301 MW2,240 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,249 MW2,197 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,223 MW2,200 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,201 MW2,173 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,215 MW2,172 MW
6 Nov, 15:002,256 MW2,178 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,304 MW2,210 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,331 MW2,225 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,324 MW2,235 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,317 MW2,220 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,304 MW2,198 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,266 MW2,162 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,204 MW2,115 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,107 MW2,061 MW
7 Nov, 00:002,066 MW2,078 MW
7 Nov, 01:002,024 MW2,033 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,983 MW2,013 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,966 MW1,993 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,955 MW1,981 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,968 MW1,999 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,005 MW2,038 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,071 MW2,109 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,123 MW2,161 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,170 MW2,190 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,191 MW2,191 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,190 MW2,163 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,178 MW2,162 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,172 MW2,144 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,176 MW2,138 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,202 MW2,152 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,242 MW2,189 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,261 MW2,198 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,265 MW2,216 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,235 MW2,215 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,206 MW2,208 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,177 MW2,165 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,149 MW2,130 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,109 MW2,085 MW
8 Nov, 00:002,052 MW2,028 MW
8 Nov, 01:002,001 MW2,004 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,988 MW1,966 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,967 MW1,962 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,960 MW1,951 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,957 MW1,957 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,986 MW1,992 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,030 MW2,047 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,077 MW2,101 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,116 MW2,131 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,152 MW2,133 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,156 MW2,132 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,158 MW2,130 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,150 MW2,130 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,189 MW2,135 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,208 MW2,157 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,243 MW2,181 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,251 MW2,211 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,254 MW2,224 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,259 MW2,222 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,246 MW2,215 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,233 MW2,183 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,188 MW2,138 MW
8 Nov, 23:002,119 MW2,077 MW
9 Nov, 00:002,059 MW2,040 MW
9 Nov, 01:002,017 MW2,024 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,993 MW1,994 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,980 MW1,997 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,980 MW1,997 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,026 MW2,038 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,177 MW2,123 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,293 MW2,204 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,344 MW2,278 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,360 MW2,297 MW
9 Nov, 10:002,259 MW2,293 MW
9 Nov, 11:002,331 MW2,273 MW
9 Nov, 12:002,325 MW2,253 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,306 MW2,239 MW
9 Nov, 14:002,324 MW2,243 MW
9 Nov, 15:002,324 MW2,265 MW
9 Nov, 16:002,346 MW2,281 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,327 MW2,299 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,302 MW2,283 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,307 MW2,259 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,300 MW2,239 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,270 MW2,205 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,225 MW2,153 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,164 MW2,094 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,106 MW2,076 MW
10 Nov, 01:002,065 MW2,052 MW
10 Nov, 02:002,034 MW2,011 MW
10 Nov, 03:002,021 MW1,993 MW
10 Nov, 04:002,007 MW1,990 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,035 MW2,049 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,127 MW2,136 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,263 MW2,228 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,292 MW2,289 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,289 MW2,300 MW
10 Nov, 10:002,295 MW2,297 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,276 MW2,273 MW
10 Nov, 12:002,276 MW2,255 MW
10 Nov, 13:002,276 MW2,245 MW
10 Nov, 14:002,286 MW2,258 MW
10 Nov, 15:002,279 MW2,281 MW
10 Nov, 16:002,308 MW2,287 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,342 MW2,291 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,319 MW2,282 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,305 MW2,271 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,302 MW2,256 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,270 MW2,207 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,196 MW2,156 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,134 MW2,105 MW
11 Nov, 00:002,094 MW2,081 MW
11 Nov, 01:002,035 MW2,059 MW
11 Nov, 02:002,009 MW2,023 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,992 MW2,021 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,990 MW1,996 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,028 MW2,047 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,123 MW2,120 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,244 MW2,217 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,274 MW2,279 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,263 MW2,314 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,190 MW2,313 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,224 MW2,285 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,214 MW2,287 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,226 MW2,284 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,222 MW2,291 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,272 MW2,315 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,331 MW2,321 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,332 MW2,333 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,331 MW2,329 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,330 MW2,335 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,337 MW2,302 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,316 MW2,273 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,269 MW2,222 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,226 MW2,170 MW
12 Nov, 00:002,184 MW2,135 MW
12 Nov, 01:002,137 MW2,103 MW
12 Nov, 02:002,104 MW2,084 MW
12 Nov, 03:002,106 MW2,073 MW
12 Nov, 04:002,104 MW2,079 MW
12 Nov, 05:002,139 MW2,124 MW
12 Nov, 06:002,256 MW2,214 MW
12 Nov, 07:002,397 MW2,315 MW
12 Nov, 08:002,432 MW2,373 MW
12 Nov, 09:002,415 MW2,393 MW
12 Nov, 10:002,406 MW2,366 MW
12 Nov, 11:002,391 MW2,341 MW
12 Nov, 12:002,361 MW2,331 MW
12 Nov, 13:002,321 MW2,310 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no5_2026,
  title = {{Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.