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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South (SE4) was off by 7.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 39% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +6.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 583 MW (32.0%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 05:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South (SE4) was off by 7.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 39% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +6.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 583 MW (32.0%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 05:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden South (SE4) came 38 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 165 MW, against average demand of 2,420 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 90% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error7.2%
Bias+6.7%
Hours within 5%39%
Worst miss583 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+154 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 583 MW (32.0%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 05:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,405 MW, reported 1,822 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden South (SE4) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South (SE4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South (SE4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:002,842 MW2,888 MW
5 Nov, 15:002,874 MW2,888 MW
5 Nov, 16:002,884 MW2,995 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,952 MW3,099 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,844 MW3,077 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,750 MW3,006 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,688 MW2,919 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,660 MW2,796 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,414 MW2,654 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,242 MW2,544 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,140 MW2,533 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,250 MW2,501 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,308 MW2,494 MW
6 Nov, 03:002,346 MW2,497 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,254 MW2,570 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,436 MW2,716 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,780 MW3,021 MW
6 Nov, 07:003,088 MW3,246 MW
6 Nov, 08:003,058 MW3,287 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,980 MW3,214 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,908 MW3,161 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,790 MW3,064 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,757 MW2,954 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,781 MW2,882 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,708 MW2,837 MW
6 Nov, 15:002,700 MW2,898 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,867 MW2,990 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,975 MW3,113 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,929 MW3,092 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,829 MW2,994 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,738 MW2,888 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,617 MW2,777 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,547 MW2,695 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,352 MW2,575 MW
7 Nov, 00:002,223 MW2,478 MW
7 Nov, 01:002,126 MW2,432 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,977 MW2,403 MW
7 Nov, 03:002,040 MW2,392 MW
7 Nov, 04:002,003 MW2,397 MW
7 Nov, 05:002,056 MW2,438 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,075 MW2,488 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,113 MW2,571 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,141 MW2,651 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,309 MW2,680 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,424 MW2,712 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,417 MW2,710 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,329 MW2,655 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,401 MW2,597 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,291 MW2,587 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,377 MW2,629 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,601 MW2,741 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,743 MW2,842 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,741 MW2,842 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,616 MW2,790 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,577 MW2,740 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,442 MW2,623 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,396 MW2,572 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,321 MW2,506 MW
8 Nov, 00:002,240 MW2,400 MW
8 Nov, 01:002,187 MW2,386 MW
8 Nov, 02:002,309 MW2,369 MW
8 Nov, 03:002,251 MW2,355 MW
8 Nov, 04:002,252 MW2,346 MW
8 Nov, 05:002,211 MW2,366 MW
8 Nov, 06:002,250 MW2,430 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,302 MW2,477 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,437 MW2,532 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,485 MW2,572 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,595 MW2,581 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,628 MW2,579 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,698 MW2,571 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,697 MW2,551 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,657 MW2,558 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,708 MW2,628 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,791 MW2,776 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,848 MW2,903 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,822 MW2,886 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,692 MW2,838 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,583 MW2,762 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,500 MW2,640 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,405 MW2,556 MW
8 Nov, 23:002,503 MW2,486 MW
9 Nov, 00:002,318 MW2,402 MW
9 Nov, 01:002,324 MW2,349 MW
9 Nov, 02:002,254 MW2,332 MW
9 Nov, 03:002,221 MW2,350 MW
9 Nov, 04:002,264 MW2,387 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,359 MW2,512 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,664 MW2,852 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,907 MW3,091 MW
9 Nov, 08:003,011 MW3,110 MW
9 Nov, 09:003,030 MW3,080 MW
9 Nov, 10:003,085 MW3,081 MW
9 Nov, 11:003,094 MW3,064 MW
9 Nov, 12:003,126 MW3,047 MW
9 Nov, 13:003,134 MW3,047 MW
9 Nov, 14:003,068 MW3,045 MW
9 Nov, 15:003,043 MW3,085 MW
9 Nov, 16:003,120 MW3,160 MW
9 Nov, 17:003,049 MW3,243 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,996 MW3,183 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,947 MW3,104 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,830 MW2,985 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,671 MW2,847 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,585 MW2,706 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,601 MW2,593 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,540 MW2,485 MW
10 Nov, 01:002,433 MW2,435 MW
10 Nov, 02:002,348 MW2,409 MW
10 Nov, 03:002,298 MW2,410 MW
10 Nov, 04:002,269 MW2,456 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,410 MW2,581 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,680 MW2,898 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,955 MW3,155 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,997 MW3,199 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,955 MW3,207 MW
10 Nov, 10:002,976 MW3,206 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,956 MW3,193 MW
10 Nov, 12:003,060 MW3,157 MW
10 Nov, 13:003,061 MW3,136 MW
10 Nov, 14:003,071 MW3,116 MW
10 Nov, 15:003,018 MW3,131 MW
10 Nov, 16:003,045 MW3,183 MW
10 Nov, 17:003,134 MW3,265 MW
10 Nov, 18:003,076 MW3,217 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,958 MW3,117 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,830 MW3,010 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,783 MW2,831 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,664 MW2,682 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,566 MW2,581 MW
11 Nov, 00:002,411 MW2,548 MW
11 Nov, 01:002,337 MW2,525 MW
11 Nov, 02:002,308 MW2,472 MW
11 Nov, 03:002,318 MW2,470 MW
11 Nov, 04:002,272 MW2,492 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,346 MW2,576 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,656 MW2,894 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,843 MW3,115 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,900 MW3,124 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,944 MW3,123 MW
11 Nov, 10:003,000 MW3,118 MW
11 Nov, 11:003,004 MW3,084 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,989 MW3,043 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,969 MW3,016 MW
11 Nov, 14:003,001 MW3,006 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,982 MW3,044 MW
11 Nov, 16:003,041 MW3,116 MW
11 Nov, 17:003,021 MW3,202 MW
11 Nov, 18:003,012 MW3,150 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,920 MW3,095 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,793 MW2,958 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,717 MW2,805 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,590 MW2,670 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,431 MW2,561 MW
12 Nov, 00:002,316 MW2,433 MW
12 Nov, 01:002,239 MW2,404 MW
12 Nov, 02:002,201 MW2,362 MW
12 Nov, 03:002,276 MW2,359 MW
12 Nov, 04:002,303 MW2,383 MW
12 Nov, 05:002,413 MW2,500 MW
12 Nov, 06:002,790 MW2,794 MW
12 Nov, 07:003,042 MW3,065 MW
12 Nov, 08:003,073 MW3,131 MW
12 Nov, 09:003,029 MW3,136 MW
12 Nov, 10:003,048 MW3,172 MW
12 Nov, 11:003,021 MW3,174 MW
12 Nov, 12:003,058 MW3,133 MW
12 Nov, 13:003,042 MW3,115 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se4/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se4/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se4_2026,
  title = {{Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se4/}
}

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