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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-South was off by 4.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 63% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,116 MW (15.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 17:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-South was off by 4.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 63% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,116 MW (15.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 17:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Centre-South came 33 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 238 MW, against average demand of 5,288 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 36% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error4.5%
Bias-1.3%
Hours within 5%63%
Worst miss1,116 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-99 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,116 MW (15.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 17:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 6,338 MW, reported 7,454 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy Centre-South day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-South over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-South over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:006,502 MW6,469 MW
5 Nov, 15:006,527 MW6,554 MW
5 Nov, 16:006,543 MW6,741 MW
5 Nov, 17:006,934 MW7,114 MW
5 Nov, 18:007,078 MW7,086 MW
5 Nov, 19:007,056 MW7,128 MW
5 Nov, 20:006,679 MW6,765 MW
5 Nov, 21:006,172 MW6,347 MW
5 Nov, 22:005,738 MW5,658 MW
5 Nov, 23:005,185 MW5,090 MW
6 Nov, 00:004,668 MW4,472 MW
6 Nov, 01:004,373 MW4,091 MW
6 Nov, 02:004,175 MW3,969 MW
6 Nov, 03:004,047 MW3,893 MW
6 Nov, 04:004,139 MW3,955 MW
6 Nov, 05:004,427 MW4,256 MW
6 Nov, 06:005,193 MW5,027 MW
6 Nov, 07:005,916 MW5,818 MW
6 Nov, 08:006,579 MW6,446 MW
6 Nov, 09:006,869 MW6,704 MW
6 Nov, 10:006,962 MW6,763 MW
6 Nov, 11:006,967 MW6,813 MW
6 Nov, 12:006,976 MW6,710 MW
6 Nov, 13:006,901 MW6,536 MW
6 Nov, 14:006,958 MW6,596 MW
6 Nov, 15:006,923 MW6,607 MW
6 Nov, 16:007,027 MW6,526 MW
6 Nov, 17:007,387 MW6,738 MW
6 Nov, 18:007,474 MW6,909 MW
6 Nov, 19:007,475 MW7,017 MW
6 Nov, 20:007,045 MW6,694 MW
6 Nov, 21:006,559 MW6,251 MW
6 Nov, 22:006,015 MW5,620 MW
6 Nov, 23:005,480 MW5,042 MW
7 Nov, 00:004,792 MW4,593 MW
7 Nov, 01:004,303 MW4,260 MW
7 Nov, 02:004,103 MW3,987 MW
7 Nov, 03:003,980 MW3,907 MW
7 Nov, 04:003,934 MW3,908 MW
7 Nov, 05:004,089 MW4,062 MW
7 Nov, 06:004,362 MW4,359 MW
7 Nov, 07:004,873 MW4,950 MW
7 Nov, 08:005,637 MW5,527 MW
7 Nov, 09:006,088 MW5,779 MW
7 Nov, 10:006,227 MW5,761 MW
7 Nov, 11:006,193 MW5,678 MW
7 Nov, 12:006,052 MW5,518 MW
7 Nov, 13:005,887 MW5,270 MW
7 Nov, 14:005,764 MW5,224 MW
7 Nov, 15:005,912 MW5,298 MW
7 Nov, 16:005,868 MW5,397 MW
7 Nov, 17:006,369 MW5,833 MW
7 Nov, 18:006,563 MW6,021 MW
7 Nov, 19:006,652 MW6,199 MW
7 Nov, 20:006,355 MW6,012 MW
7 Nov, 21:005,910 MW5,581 MW
7 Nov, 22:005,512 MW5,057 MW
7 Nov, 23:005,015 MW4,597 MW
8 Nov, 00:004,466 MW4,193 MW
8 Nov, 01:004,097 MW4,000 MW
8 Nov, 02:003,940 MW3,824 MW
8 Nov, 03:003,782 MW3,700 MW
8 Nov, 04:003,753 MW3,702 MW
8 Nov, 05:003,854 MW3,790 MW
8 Nov, 06:004,024 MW3,930 MW
8 Nov, 07:004,280 MW4,105 MW
8 Nov, 08:004,854 MW4,639 MW
8 Nov, 09:005,251 MW5,068 MW
8 Nov, 10:005,520 MW5,141 MW
8 Nov, 11:005,609 MW5,259 MW
8 Nov, 12:005,644 MW5,363 MW
8 Nov, 13:005,528 MW5,154 MW
8 Nov, 14:005,395 MW4,959 MW
8 Nov, 15:005,483 MW5,004 MW
8 Nov, 16:005,373 MW5,072 MW
8 Nov, 17:005,982 MW5,405 MW
8 Nov, 18:006,180 MW5,652 MW
8 Nov, 19:006,323 MW5,875 MW
8 Nov, 20:006,136 MW5,792 MW
8 Nov, 21:005,807 MW5,511 MW
8 Nov, 22:005,387 MW5,058 MW
8 Nov, 23:004,922 MW4,520 MW
9 Nov, 00:004,187 MW4,221 MW
9 Nov, 01:003,876 MW3,852 MW
9 Nov, 02:003,758 MW3,703 MW
9 Nov, 03:003,700 MW3,645 MW
9 Nov, 04:003,769 MW3,697 MW
9 Nov, 05:004,162 MW4,018 MW
9 Nov, 06:005,191 MW4,868 MW
9 Nov, 07:006,021 MW5,763 MW
9 Nov, 08:006,784 MW6,542 MW
9 Nov, 09:007,100 MW6,857 MW
9 Nov, 10:007,110 MW6,829 MW
9 Nov, 11:007,068 MW6,780 MW
9 Nov, 12:006,940 MW6,702 MW
9 Nov, 13:007,016 MW6,556 MW
9 Nov, 14:007,010 MW6,541 MW
9 Nov, 15:007,006 MW6,806 MW
9 Nov, 16:007,124 MW7,029 MW
9 Nov, 17:007,359 MW7,236 MW
9 Nov, 18:007,383 MW7,355 MW
9 Nov, 19:007,507 MW7,355 MW
9 Nov, 20:007,174 MW6,996 MW
9 Nov, 21:006,729 MW6,544 MW
9 Nov, 22:006,099 MW5,900 MW
9 Nov, 23:005,605 MW5,258 MW
10 Nov, 00:004,807 MW4,523 MW
10 Nov, 01:004,455 MW4,188 MW
10 Nov, 02:004,336 MW3,982 MW
10 Nov, 03:004,252 MW3,943 MW
10 Nov, 04:004,247 MW3,973 MW
10 Nov, 05:004,513 MW4,311 MW
10 Nov, 06:005,398 MW5,085 MW
10 Nov, 07:006,150 MW5,993 MW
10 Nov, 08:006,696 MW6,737 MW
10 Nov, 09:007,122 MW6,905 MW
10 Nov, 10:007,133 MW7,025 MW
10 Nov, 11:007,179 MW7,090 MW
10 Nov, 12:007,170 MW6,988 MW
10 Nov, 13:006,885 MW6,786 MW
10 Nov, 14:006,877 MW6,858 MW
10 Nov, 15:006,934 MW6,936 MW
10 Nov, 16:007,025 MW6,940 MW
10 Nov, 17:007,385 MW7,096 MW
10 Nov, 18:007,478 MW7,127 MW
10 Nov, 19:007,639 MW7,171 MW
10 Nov, 20:007,262 MW6,870 MW
10 Nov, 21:006,634 MW6,441 MW
10 Nov, 22:005,987 MW5,785 MW
10 Nov, 23:005,349 MW5,123 MW
11 Nov, 00:004,707 MW4,504 MW
11 Nov, 01:004,377 MW4,178 MW
11 Nov, 02:004,291 MW4,063 MW
11 Nov, 03:004,194 MW4,016 MW
11 Nov, 04:004,222 MW4,043 MW
11 Nov, 05:004,577 MW4,339 MW
11 Nov, 06:005,344 MW5,177 MW
11 Nov, 07:006,143 MW5,961 MW
11 Nov, 08:006,937 MW6,611 MW
11 Nov, 09:007,102 MW6,821 MW
11 Nov, 10:006,998 MW6,851 MW
11 Nov, 11:006,886 MW6,785 MW
11 Nov, 12:006,813 MW6,562 MW
11 Nov, 13:006,626 MW6,563 MW
11 Nov, 14:006,841 MW6,640 MW
11 Nov, 15:006,759 MW6,721 MW
11 Nov, 16:006,741 MW6,895 MW
11 Nov, 17:007,054 MW7,180 MW
11 Nov, 18:007,451 MW7,213 MW
11 Nov, 19:007,602 MW7,229 MW
11 Nov, 20:007,125 MW6,907 MW
11 Nov, 21:006,377 MW6,456 MW
11 Nov, 22:005,724 MW5,747 MW
11 Nov, 23:005,149 MW5,156 MW
12 Nov, 00:004,594 MW4,627 MW
12 Nov, 01:004,027 MW4,321 MW
12 Nov, 02:003,766 MW4,141 MW
12 Nov, 03:003,856 MW4,073 MW
12 Nov, 04:003,847 MW4,075 MW
12 Nov, 05:004,144 MW4,380 MW
12 Nov, 06:004,902 MW5,153 MW
12 Nov, 07:006,051 MW6,017 MW
12 Nov, 08:006,996 MW6,540 MW
12 Nov, 09:007,244 MW6,752 MW
12 Nov, 10:007,374 MW6,707 MW
12 Nov, 11:007,439 MW6,749 MW
12 Nov, 12:007,089 MW6,654 MW
12 Nov, 13:006,864 MW6,495 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_csud_2026,
  title = {{Italy Centre-South Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-csud/

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