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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Hungary was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 67% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -3.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 612 MW (11.8%) too low at 15 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Budapest).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Hungary was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 67% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -3.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 612 MW (11.8%) too low at 15 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Hungary came 31 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 207 MW, against average demand of 5,174 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 13% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error4.0%
Bias-3.1%
Hours within 5%67%
Worst miss612 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-168 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 612 MW (11.8%) too low at 15 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 4,571 MW, reported 5,183 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Hungary day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Hungary over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Hungary over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:005,257 MW5,228 MW
5 Nov, 15:005,944 MW5,714 MW
5 Nov, 16:006,362 MW6,157 MW
5 Nov, 17:006,472 MW6,322 MW
5 Nov, 18:006,512 MW6,319 MW
5 Nov, 19:006,548 MW6,284 MW
5 Nov, 20:006,343 MW6,051 MW
5 Nov, 21:006,219 MW5,770 MW
5 Nov, 22:005,912 MW5,577 MW
5 Nov, 23:005,619 MW5,340 MW
6 Nov, 00:005,274 MW4,964 MW
6 Nov, 01:005,124 MW4,683 MW
6 Nov, 02:005,163 MW4,584 MW
6 Nov, 03:005,187 MW4,609 MW
6 Nov, 04:005,119 MW4,738 MW
6 Nov, 05:005,434 MW5,114 MW
6 Nov, 06:006,069 MW5,718 MW
6 Nov, 07:006,042 MW5,808 MW
6 Nov, 08:005,500 MW5,495 MW
6 Nov, 09:005,027 MW5,129 MW
6 Nov, 10:004,803 MW4,891 MW
6 Nov, 11:004,845 MW4,842 MW
6 Nov, 12:004,895 MW4,854 MW
6 Nov, 13:004,955 MW4,946 MW
6 Nov, 14:005,349 MW5,228 MW
6 Nov, 15:005,905 MW5,704 MW
6 Nov, 16:006,309 MW6,150 MW
6 Nov, 17:006,409 MW6,284 MW
6 Nov, 18:006,418 MW6,280 MW
6 Nov, 19:006,419 MW6,239 MW
6 Nov, 20:006,219 MW6,003 MW
6 Nov, 21:006,092 MW5,716 MW
6 Nov, 22:005,831 MW5,525 MW
6 Nov, 23:005,516 MW5,276 MW
7 Nov, 00:005,197 MW4,961 MW
7 Nov, 01:004,925 MW4,695 MW
7 Nov, 02:004,850 MW4,580 MW
7 Nov, 03:004,848 MW4,565 MW
7 Nov, 04:004,960 MW4,606 MW
7 Nov, 05:005,008 MW4,739 MW
7 Nov, 06:005,242 MW5,005 MW
7 Nov, 07:005,249 MW5,066 MW
7 Nov, 08:004,902 MW4,910 MW
7 Nov, 09:004,516 MW4,746 MW
7 Nov, 10:004,467 MW4,666 MW
7 Nov, 11:004,460 MW4,688 MW
7 Nov, 12:004,466 MW4,681 MW
7 Nov, 13:004,400 MW4,636 MW
7 Nov, 14:004,805 MW4,796 MW
7 Nov, 15:005,449 MW5,264 MW
7 Nov, 16:005,931 MW5,724 MW
7 Nov, 17:005,981 MW5,875 MW
7 Nov, 18:005,939 MW5,857 MW
7 Nov, 19:005,948 MW5,828 MW
7 Nov, 20:005,797 MW5,636 MW
7 Nov, 21:005,762 MW5,384 MW
7 Nov, 22:005,565 MW5,205 MW
7 Nov, 23:005,261 MW4,982 MW
8 Nov, 00:004,896 MW4,638 MW
8 Nov, 01:004,692 MW4,392 MW
8 Nov, 02:004,628 MW4,310 MW
8 Nov, 03:004,620 MW4,298 MW
8 Nov, 04:004,633 MW4,324 MW
8 Nov, 05:004,732 MW4,428 MW
8 Nov, 06:004,933 MW4,660 MW
8 Nov, 07:004,989 MW4,764 MW
8 Nov, 08:004,790 MW4,772 MW
8 Nov, 09:004,538 MW4,707 MW
8 Nov, 10:004,523 MW4,655 MW
8 Nov, 11:004,584 MW4,624 MW
8 Nov, 12:004,562 MW4,641 MW
8 Nov, 13:004,562 MW4,614 MW
8 Nov, 14:004,864 MW4,796 MW
8 Nov, 15:005,405 MW5,168 MW
8 Nov, 16:005,885 MW5,624 MW
8 Nov, 17:005,961 MW5,842 MW
8 Nov, 18:005,953 MW5,879 MW
8 Nov, 19:005,947 MW5,849 MW
8 Nov, 20:005,775 MW5,656 MW
8 Nov, 21:005,670 MW5,418 MW
8 Nov, 22:005,438 MW5,176 MW
8 Nov, 23:005,105 MW4,876 MW
9 Nov, 00:004,789 MW4,677 MW
9 Nov, 01:004,699 MW4,426 MW
9 Nov, 02:004,811 MW4,367 MW
9 Nov, 03:004,801 MW4,402 MW
9 Nov, 04:004,730 MW4,565 MW
9 Nov, 05:005,095 MW5,001 MW
9 Nov, 06:005,871 MW5,774 MW
9 Nov, 07:006,112 MW6,103 MW
9 Nov, 08:006,133 MW6,094 MW
9 Nov, 09:006,123 MW6,023 MW
9 Nov, 10:006,194 MW5,926 MW
9 Nov, 11:006,324 MW5,842 MW
9 Nov, 12:006,282 MW5,748 MW
9 Nov, 13:006,186 MW5,654 MW
9 Nov, 14:006,173 MW5,775 MW
9 Nov, 15:006,333 MW6,082 MW
9 Nov, 16:006,523 MW6,440 MW
9 Nov, 17:006,541 MW6,542 MW
9 Nov, 18:006,549 MW6,523 MW
9 Nov, 19:006,539 MW6,498 MW
9 Nov, 20:006,355 MW6,279 MW
9 Nov, 21:006,204 MW6,023 MW
9 Nov, 22:005,953 MW5,767 MW
9 Nov, 23:005,878 MW5,507 MW
10 Nov, 00:005,336 MW5,152 MW
10 Nov, 01:005,187 MW4,891 MW
10 Nov, 02:005,055 MW4,792 MW
10 Nov, 03:005,090 MW4,811 MW
10 Nov, 04:004,997 MW4,909 MW
10 Nov, 05:005,318 MW5,270 MW
10 Nov, 06:006,005 MW5,955 MW
10 Nov, 07:006,358 MW6,255 MW
10 Nov, 08:006,509 MW6,394 MW
10 Nov, 09:006,667 MW6,544 MW
10 Nov, 10:006,799 MW6,626 MW
10 Nov, 11:006,816 MW6,709 MW
10 Nov, 12:006,864 MW6,666 MW
10 Nov, 13:006,727 MW6,511 MW
10 Nov, 14:006,697 MW6,423 MW
10 Nov, 15:006,710 MW6,479 MW
10 Nov, 16:006,745 MW6,520 MW
10 Nov, 17:006,691 MW6,478 MW
10 Nov, 18:006,628 MW6,458 MW
10 Nov, 19:006,573 MW6,406 MW
10 Nov, 20:006,320 MW6,148 MW
10 Nov, 21:006,139 MW5,851 MW
10 Nov, 22:005,859 MW5,611 MW
10 Nov, 23:005,627 MW5,378 MW
11 Nov, 00:005,286 MW4,954 MW
11 Nov, 01:005,164 MW4,718 MW
11 Nov, 02:005,101 MW4,623 MW
11 Nov, 03:005,006 MW4,661 MW
11 Nov, 04:004,947 MW4,799 MW
11 Nov, 05:005,274 MW5,203 MW
11 Nov, 06:005,995 MW5,898 MW
11 Nov, 07:006,252 MW6,095 MW
11 Nov, 08:006,254 MW6,066 MW
11 Nov, 09:006,291 MW6,096 MW
11 Nov, 10:006,413 MW6,173 MW
11 Nov, 11:006,508 MW6,230 MW
11 Nov, 12:006,555 MW6,248 MW
11 Nov, 13:006,491 MW6,197 MW
11 Nov, 14:006,567 MW6,176 MW
11 Nov, 15:006,615 MW6,290 MW
11 Nov, 16:006,680 MW6,473 MW
11 Nov, 17:006,602 MW6,431 MW
11 Nov, 18:006,551 MW6,376 MW
11 Nov, 19:006,512 MW6,305 MW
11 Nov, 20:006,289 MW6,062 MW
11 Nov, 21:006,122 MW5,775 MW
11 Nov, 22:005,834 MW5,528 MW
11 Nov, 23:005,579 MW5,280 MW
12 Nov, 00:005,148 MW4,859 MW
12 Nov, 01:004,959 MW4,605 MW
12 Nov, 02:005,004 MW4,491 MW
12 Nov, 03:004,994 MW4,524 MW
12 Nov, 04:004,939 MW4,664 MW
12 Nov, 05:005,222 MW5,033 MW
12 Nov, 06:005,837 MW5,678 MW
12 Nov, 07:006,121 MW6,007 MW
12 Nov, 08:006,238 MW6,077 MW
12 Nov, 09:006,312 MW6,127 MW
12 Nov, 10:006,346 MW6,095 MW
12 Nov, 11:006,328 MW6,074 MW
12 Nov, 12:006,338 MW6,061 MW
12 Nov, 13:006,268 MW6,034 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hu/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hu/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_hu_2026,
  title = {{Hungary Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hu/}
}

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