Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sardinia was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 213 MW (39.7%) too high at 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sardinia was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 75% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 213 MW (39.7%) too high at 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Sardinia came 30 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 30 MW, against average demand of 790 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 59% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error3.9%

Bias+1.0%

Hours within 5%75%

Worst miss213 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+6 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 213 MW (39.7%) too high at 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 750 MW, reported 537 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Sardinia over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:00	933 MW	888 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	932 MW	925 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	938 MW	935 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	1,000 MW	983 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	1,040 MW	1,053 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	1,058 MW	1,083 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	1,033 MW	1,065 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	952 MW	993 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	863 MW	908 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	781 MW	815 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	716 MW	738 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	674 MW	703 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	653 MW	690 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	649 MW	688 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	663 MW	690 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	700 MW	720 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	795 MW	823 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	900 MW	925 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	936 MW	943 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	877 MW	888 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	856 MW	820 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	801 MW	790 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	766 MW	775 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	781 MW	770 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	780 MW	798 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	797 MW	833 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	839 MW	868 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	938 MW	940 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	984 MW	1,013 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	1,000 MW	1,050 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	979 MW	1,028 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	913 MW	968 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	843 MW	890 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	774 MW	805 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	711 MW	735 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	681 MW	700 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	659 MW	690 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	651 MW	690 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	656 MW	690 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	679 MW	708 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	736 MW	750 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	790 MW	803 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	795 MW	835 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	758 MW	838 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	730 MW	788 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	703 MW	765 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	688 MW	780 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	676 MW	798 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	691 MW	825 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	726 MW	833 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	772 MW	858 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	876 MW	913 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	929 MW	955 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	949 MW	973 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	926 MW	950 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	854 MW	883 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	792 MW	825 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	735 MW	768 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	681 MW	710 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	646 MW	678 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	626 MW	660 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	617 MW	655 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	609 MW	648 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	626 MW	668 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	659 MW	698 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	684 MW	715 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	684 MW	738 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	704 MW	785 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	697 MW	783 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	691 MW	745 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	682 MW	755 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	650 MW	760 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	644 MW	758 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	662 MW	793 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	719 MW	830 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	825 MW	893 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	882 MW	935 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	910 MW	968 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	917 MW	950 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	861 MW	890 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	782 MW	825 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	713 MW	763 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	650 MW	695 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	617 MW	658 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	607 MW	643 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	601 MW	635 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	609 MW	648 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	636 MW	675 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	744 MW	778 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	840 MW	883 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	871 MW	908 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	889 MW	895 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	851 MW	858 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	853 MW	830 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	840 MW	818 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	850 MW	818 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	848 MW	828 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	885 MW	863 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	887 MW	888 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	926 MW	955 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	956 MW	995 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	979 MW	1,000 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	966 MW	990 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	898 MW	938 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	815 MW	858 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	740 MW	773 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	684 MW	713 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	645 MW	678 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	629 MW	668 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	625 MW	663 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	638 MW	663 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	669 MW	688 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	764 MW	783 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	876 MW	905 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	939 MW	938 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	933 MW	923 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	908 MW	880 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	912 MW	868 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	941 MW	858 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	904 MW	845 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	895 MW	865 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	878 MW	873 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	877 MW	885 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	943 MW	943 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	975 MW	1,005 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	991 MW	1,028 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	975 MW	1,005 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	897 MW	950 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	822 MW	860 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	749 MW	778 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	688 MW	705 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	654 MW	673 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	638 MW	660 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	629 MW	653 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	638 MW	655 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	673 MW	688 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	764 MW	785 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	866 MW	890 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	946 MW	915 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	963 MW	900 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	912 MW	845 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	899 MW	855 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	873 MW	848 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	857 MW	848 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	854 MW	878 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	860 MW	890 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	868 MW	883 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	923 MW	943 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	957 MW	975 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	972 MW	1,005 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	952 MW	998 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	880 MW	933 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	807 MW	858 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	740 MW	773 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	692 MW	708 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	659 MW	680 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	644 MW	680 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	633 MW	675 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	640 MW	680 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	679 MW	690 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	773 MW	783 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	876 MW	885 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	958 MW	953 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	988 MW	948 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	1,020 MW	898 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	1,058 MW	855 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	1,037 MW	868 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	1,013 MW	885 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_sard_2026,
  title = {{Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/

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Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related