Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Kosovo was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 194 MW (24.5%) too high at 6 Nov 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Kosovo was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 194 MW (24.5%) too high at 6 Nov 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Kosovo came 24 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 27 MW, against average demand of 802 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 51% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error3.3%

Bias+0.6%

Hours within 5%80%

Worst miss194 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+3 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 194 MW (24.5%) too high at 6 Nov 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 986 MW, reported 792 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Kosovo over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:00	938 MW	1,008 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	975 MW	1,022 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	1,093 MW	1,080 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	1,128 MW	1,078 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	1,086 MW	1,038 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	1,052 MW	1,041 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	1,022 MW	1,011 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	1,019 MW	1,009 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	1,026 MW	977 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	964 MW	957 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	827 MW	736 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	698 MW	619 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	620 MW	604 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	583 MW	598 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	570 MW	590 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	612 MW	600 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	674 MW	610 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	797 MW	721 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	909 MW	941 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	947 MW	1,008 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	920 MW	1,028 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	861 MW	1,017 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	792 MW	986 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	786 MW	972 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	837 MW	984 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	903 MW	1,002 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	1,028 MW	1,055 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	1,100 MW	1,096 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	1,081 MW	1,070 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	1,053 MW	1,047 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	1,028 MW	1,029 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	1,014 MW	1,020 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	1,019 MW	1,020 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	972 MW	992 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	878 MW	866 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	759 MW	746 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	671 MW	666 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	624 MW	625 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	610 MW	617 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	642 MW	645 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	663 MW	675 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	740 MW	761 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	859 MW	890 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	935 MW	972 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	951 MW	1,006 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	926 MW	987 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	890 MW	953 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	868 MW	932 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	879 MW	948 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	938 MW	976 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	1,056 MW	1,044 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	1,117 MW	1,082 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	1,102 MW	1,043 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	1,076 MW	1,037 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	1,054 MW	1,020 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	1,047 MW	1,016 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	1,062 MW	1,032 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	1,024 MW	998 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	910 MW	902 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	787 MW	778 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	702 MW	692 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	659 MW	655 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	641 MW	638 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	665 MW	646 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	666 MW	658 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	715 MW	704 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	796 MW	806 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	871 MW	873 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	898 MW	912 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	880 MW	914 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	849 MW	879 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	830 MW	854 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	857 MW	847 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	930 MW	889 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	1,042 MW	993 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	1,096 MW	1,052 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	1,078 MW	1,037 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	1,059 MW	1,020 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	1,057 MW	1,013 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	1,064 MW	1,034 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	1,068 MW	1,029 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	992 MW	980 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	831 MW	865 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	698 MW	734 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	621 MW	635 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	587 MW	594 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	575 MW	591 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	611 MW	635 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	686 MW	698 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	821 MW	807 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	943 MW	914 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	1,024 MW	963 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	1,050 MW	981 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	1,034 MW	956 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	1,009 MW	926 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	992 MW	915 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	996 MW	924 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	1,035 MW	946 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	1,119 MW	1,036 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	1,140 MW	1,082 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	1,104 MW	1,060 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	1,067 MW	1,040 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	1,042 MW	1,024 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	1,029 MW	1,005 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	1,037 MW	1,026 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	981 MW	988 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	847 MW	846 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	718 MW	717 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	644 MW	639 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	602 MW	606 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	596 MW	597 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	634 MW	624 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	703 MW	701 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	822 MW	811 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	918 MW	908 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	956 MW	982 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	932 MW	982 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	903 MW	955 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	911 MW	921 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	944 MW	913 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	956 MW	919 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	984 MW	962 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	1,074 MW	1,049 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	1,105 MW	1,069 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	1,073 MW	1,053 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	1,040 MW	1,033 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	1,015 MW	1,015 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	1,012 MW	1,004 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	1,013 MW	1,019 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	943 MW	960 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	796 MW	847 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	675 MW	687 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	598 MW	607 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	565 MW	559 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	559 MW	561 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	592 MW	599 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	665 MW	682 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	782 MW	790 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	884 MW	879 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	932 MW	946 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	940 MW	958 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	931 MW	926 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	888 MW	887 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	880 MW	880 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	900 MW	887 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	943 MW	905 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	1,040 MW	1,002 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	1,045 MW	1,042 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	1,009 MW	1,011 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	979 MW	980 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	953 MW	968 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	944 MW	979 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	958 MW	986 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	895 MW	939 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	761 MW	770 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	636 MW	637 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	568 MW	565 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	538 MW	515 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	526 MW	509 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	561 MW	546 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	626 MW	619 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	733 MW	729 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	829 MW	824 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	862 MW	874 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	846 MW	883 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	842 MW	868 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	826 MW	861 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	804 MW	855 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_xk_2026,
  title = {{Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/

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Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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