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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TEPC was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 301 MW (19.3%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Phoenix).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for TEPC was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 84% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 301 MW (19.3%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TEPC came 19 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 44 MW, against average demand of 1,432 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 43% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error3.0%
Bias-0.7%
Hours within 5%84%
Worst miss301 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-12 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 301 MW (19.3%) too high at 1 Nov 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 1,861 MW, reported 1,560 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
TEPC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 5 Nov, 06:006 Nov, 06:007 Nov, 06:008 Nov, 06:009 Nov, 06:0010 Nov, 06:0011 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TEPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 06:001,377 MW1,438 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,377 MW1,409 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,247 MW1,291 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,147 MW1,177 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,095 MW1,116 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,067 MW1,086 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,089 MW1,104 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,145 MW1,167 MW
5 Nov, 14:001,237 MW1,260 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,342 MW1,388 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,476 MW1,507 MW
5 Nov, 17:001,566 MW1,565 MW
5 Nov, 18:001,578 MW1,581 MW
5 Nov, 19:001,542 MW1,543 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,483 MW1,512 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,437 MW1,460 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,388 MW1,395 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,329 MW1,330 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,282 MW1,278 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,247 MW1,248 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,244 MW1,239 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,235 MW1,240 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,251 MW1,269 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,313 MW1,329 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,393 MW1,412 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,375 MW1,411 MW
6 Nov, 08:001,307 MW1,360 MW
6 Nov, 09:001,288 MW1,323 MW
6 Nov, 10:001,267 MW1,304 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,184 MW1,270 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,176 MW1,228 MW
6 Nov, 13:001,235 MW1,242 MW
6 Nov, 14:001,329 MW1,322 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,422 MW1,425 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,508 MW1,518 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,567 MW1,575 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,571 MW1,566 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,520 MW1,519 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,485 MW1,486 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,463 MW1,439 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,396 MW1,387 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,327 MW1,348 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,276 MW1,310 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,254 MW1,281 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,238 MW1,230 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,239 MW1,236 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,246 MW1,243 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,276 MW1,277 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,318 MW1,326 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,319 MW1,320 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,258 MW1,268 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,187 MW1,192 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,125 MW1,085 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,104 MW1,087 MW
7 Nov, 12:001,118 MW1,102 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,172 MW1,179 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,264 MW1,272 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,374 MW1,369 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,481 MW1,467 MW
7 Nov, 17:001,553 MW1,526 MW
7 Nov, 18:001,545 MW1,533 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,511 MW1,494 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,478 MW1,474 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,436 MW1,435 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,383 MW1,391 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,318 MW1,349 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,265 MW1,285 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,236 MW1,269 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,202 MW1,253 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,189 MW1,252 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,194 MW1,261 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,214 MW1,291 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,240 MW1,331 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,237 MW1,333 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,194 MW1,301 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,120 MW1,225 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,078 MW1,153 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,066 MW1,133 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,080 MW1,135 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,126 MW1,159 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,226 MW1,222 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,347 MW1,340 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,477 MW1,466 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,558 MW1,592 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,563 MW1,604 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,522 MW1,568 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,490 MW1,528 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,438 MW1,471 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,374 MW1,399 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,303 MW1,319 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,259 MW1,256 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,246 MW1,242 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,234 MW1,235 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,238 MW1,242 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,250 MW1,282 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,317 MW1,351 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,399 MW1,448 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,397 MW1,435 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,310 MW1,329 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,236 MW1,213 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,176 MW1,157 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,161 MW1,140 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,184 MW1,165 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,252 MW1,213 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,338 MW1,281 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,452 MW1,402 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,596 MW1,533 MW
9 Nov, 17:001,657 MW1,619 MW
9 Nov, 18:001,642 MW1,630 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,594 MW1,585 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,582 MW1,544 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,525 MW1,476 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,452 MW1,407 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,381 MW1,335 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,343 MW1,319 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,300 MW1,299 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,286 MW1,280 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,300 MW1,279 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,322 MW1,306 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,385 MW1,369 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,464 MW1,457 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,459 MW1,454 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,352 MW1,341 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,271 MW1,241 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,224 MW1,191 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,211 MW1,175 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,234 MW1,204 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,283 MW1,243 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,364 MW1,312 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,497 MW1,429 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,633 MW1,553 MW
10 Nov, 17:001,698 MW1,632 MW
10 Nov, 18:001,684 MW1,644 MW
10 Nov, 19:001,624 MW1,596 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,578 MW1,558 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,544 MW1,495 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,472 MW1,425 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,392 MW1,358 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,347 MW1,343 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,307 MW1,318 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,289 MW1,305 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,283 MW1,308 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,308 MW1,324 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,352 MW1,362 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,396 MW1,405 MW
11 Nov, 07:001,388 MW1,400 MW
11 Nov, 08:001,300 MW1,329 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,191 MW1,277 MW
11 Nov, 10:001,148 MW1,246 MW
11 Nov, 11:001,136 MW1,232 MW
11 Nov, 12:001,193 MW1,234 MW
11 Nov, 13:001,251 MW1,295 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,338 MW1,355 MW
11 Nov, 15:001,462 MW1,463 MW
11 Nov, 16:001,613 MW1,571 MW
11 Nov, 17:001,682 MW1,642 MW
11 Nov, 18:001,667 MW1,642 MW
11 Nov, 19:001,627 MW1,598 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,593 MW1,561 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,544 MW1,503 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,468 MW1,429 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,391 MW1,348 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,350 MW1,338 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,318 MW1,306 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,311 MW1,290 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,302 MW1,293 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,318 MW1,317 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,385 MW1,375 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tepc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tepc/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tepc_2026,
  title = {{TEPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tepc/}
}

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