Statistics
Page built 2026-11-12
Data as of 2026-11-12
Search
Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for LGEE was off by 7.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 22% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -7.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 529 MW (15.6%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for LGEE was off by 7.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 22% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -7.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 529 MW (15.6%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, LGEE came 37 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 278 MW, against average demand of 3,707 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 4% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error7.6%
Bias-7.4%
Hours within 5%22%
Worst miss529 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-272 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 529 MW (15.6%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 2,861 MW, reported 3,390 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
LGEE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LGEE over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 5 Nov, 08:006 Nov, 08:007 Nov, 08:008 Nov, 08:009 Nov, 08:0010 Nov, 08:0011 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LGEE over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:003,790 MW3,591 MW
5 Nov, 09:003,785 MW3,669 MW
5 Nov, 10:003,790 MW3,701 MW
5 Nov, 11:003,873 MW3,733 MW
5 Nov, 12:004,005 MW3,764 MW
5 Nov, 13:004,004 MW3,764 MW
5 Nov, 14:004,096 MW3,749 MW
5 Nov, 15:004,115 MW3,723 MW
5 Nov, 16:004,081 MW3,685 MW
5 Nov, 17:004,005 MW3,692 MW
5 Nov, 18:004,003 MW3,752 MW
5 Nov, 19:003,963 MW3,682 MW
5 Nov, 20:003,852 MW3,575 MW
5 Nov, 21:003,773 MW3,424 MW
5 Nov, 22:003,667 MW3,269 MW
5 Nov, 23:003,480 MW3,124 MW
6 Nov, 00:003,329 MW2,989 MW
6 Nov, 01:003,205 MW2,906 MW
6 Nov, 02:003,121 MW2,851 MW
6 Nov, 03:003,208 MW2,841 MW
6 Nov, 04:003,227 MW2,895 MW
6 Nov, 05:003,325 MW3,052 MW
6 Nov, 06:003,607 MW3,297 MW
6 Nov, 07:003,807 MW3,482 MW
6 Nov, 08:003,838 MW3,559 MW
6 Nov, 09:003,966 MW3,619 MW
6 Nov, 10:003,964 MW3,655 MW
6 Nov, 11:003,930 MW3,661 MW
6 Nov, 12:003,896 MW3,657 MW
6 Nov, 13:003,805 MW3,602 MW
6 Nov, 14:003,775 MW3,584 MW
6 Nov, 15:003,709 MW3,544 MW
6 Nov, 16:003,734 MW3,517 MW
6 Nov, 17:003,870 MW3,555 MW
6 Nov, 18:003,985 MW3,612 MW
6 Nov, 19:003,920 MW3,585 MW
6 Nov, 20:003,918 MW3,535 MW
6 Nov, 21:003,837 MW3,460 MW
6 Nov, 22:003,737 MW3,348 MW
6 Nov, 23:003,618 MW3,228 MW
7 Nov, 00:003,513 MW3,143 MW
7 Nov, 01:003,436 MW3,071 MW
7 Nov, 02:003,371 MW3,027 MW
7 Nov, 03:003,353 MW3,028 MW
7 Nov, 04:003,316 MW3,045 MW
7 Nov, 05:003,482 MW3,102 MW
7 Nov, 06:003,634 MW3,243 MW
7 Nov, 07:003,812 MW3,381 MW
7 Nov, 08:003,859 MW3,453 MW
7 Nov, 09:003,831 MW3,479 MW
7 Nov, 10:003,744 MW3,462 MW
7 Nov, 11:003,687 MW3,421 MW
7 Nov, 12:003,674 MW3,367 MW
7 Nov, 13:003,604 MW3,285 MW
7 Nov, 14:003,545 MW3,282 MW
7 Nov, 15:003,499 MW3,260 MW
7 Nov, 16:003,376 MW3,275 MW
7 Nov, 17:003,449 MW3,345 MW
7 Nov, 18:003,648 MW3,469 MW
7 Nov, 19:003,757 MW3,485 MW
7 Nov, 20:003,737 MW3,477 MW
7 Nov, 21:003,634 MW3,445 MW
7 Nov, 22:003,497 MW3,366 MW
7 Nov, 23:003,517 MW3,288 MW
8 Nov, 00:003,508 MW3,211 MW
8 Nov, 01:003,468 MW3,177 MW
8 Nov, 02:003,492 MW3,166 MW
8 Nov, 03:003,543 MW3,191 MW
8 Nov, 04:003,554 MW3,231 MW
8 Nov, 05:003,627 MW3,296 MW
8 Nov, 06:003,740 MW3,425 MW
8 Nov, 07:003,822 MW3,560 MW
8 Nov, 08:003,929 MW3,604 MW
8 Nov, 09:003,753 MW3,561 MW
8 Nov, 10:003,556 MW3,465 MW
8 Nov, 11:003,552 MW3,378 MW
8 Nov, 12:003,532 MW3,310 MW
8 Nov, 13:003,518 MW3,236 MW
8 Nov, 14:003,531 MW3,230 MW
8 Nov, 15:003,523 MW3,219 MW
8 Nov, 16:003,526 MW3,251 MW
8 Nov, 17:003,683 MW3,351 MW
8 Nov, 18:003,764 MW3,496 MW
8 Nov, 19:003,778 MW3,513 MW
8 Nov, 20:003,761 MW3,503 MW
8 Nov, 21:003,746 MW3,429 MW
8 Nov, 22:003,534 MW3,326 MW
8 Nov, 23:003,468 MW3,236 MW
9 Nov, 00:003,300 MW3,083 MW
9 Nov, 01:003,272 MW3,038 MW
9 Nov, 02:003,324 MW3,057 MW
9 Nov, 03:003,378 MW3,104 MW
9 Nov, 04:003,596 MW3,215 MW
9 Nov, 05:003,752 MW3,448 MW
9 Nov, 06:004,122 MW3,759 MW
9 Nov, 07:004,352 MW3,938 MW
9 Nov, 08:004,266 MW3,928 MW
9 Nov, 09:004,169 MW3,837 MW
9 Nov, 10:004,075 MW3,748 MW
9 Nov, 11:003,829 MW3,699 MW
9 Nov, 12:003,827 MW3,658 MW
9 Nov, 13:003,847 MW3,608 MW
9 Nov, 14:003,940 MW3,580 MW
9 Nov, 15:003,905 MW3,528 MW
9 Nov, 16:003,896 MW3,535 MW
9 Nov, 17:003,973 MW3,620 MW
9 Nov, 18:004,087 MW3,741 MW
9 Nov, 19:004,115 MW3,728 MW
9 Nov, 20:004,009 MW3,689 MW
9 Nov, 21:003,947 MW3,593 MW
9 Nov, 22:003,812 MW3,471 MW
9 Nov, 23:003,665 MW3,311 MW
10 Nov, 00:003,471 MW3,146 MW
10 Nov, 01:003,368 MW3,116 MW
10 Nov, 02:003,247 MW3,095 MW
10 Nov, 03:003,258 MW3,112 MW
10 Nov, 04:003,320 MW3,213 MW
10 Nov, 05:003,569 MW3,403 MW
10 Nov, 06:003,973 MW3,721 MW
10 Nov, 07:004,208 MW3,903 MW
10 Nov, 08:004,180 MW3,893 MW
10 Nov, 09:004,082 MW3,796 MW
10 Nov, 10:004,039 MW3,709 MW
10 Nov, 11:003,929 MW3,636 MW
10 Nov, 12:003,897 MW3,620 MW
10 Nov, 13:003,819 MW3,583 MW
10 Nov, 14:003,898 MW3,597 MW
10 Nov, 15:003,908 MW3,587 MW
10 Nov, 16:003,951 MW3,552 MW
10 Nov, 17:004,004 MW3,606 MW
10 Nov, 18:004,084 MW3,714 MW
10 Nov, 19:004,022 MW3,694 MW
10 Nov, 20:003,913 MW3,618 MW
10 Nov, 21:003,676 MW3,522 MW
10 Nov, 22:003,539 MW3,390 MW
10 Nov, 23:003,477 MW3,285 MW
11 Nov, 00:003,463 MW3,031 MW
11 Nov, 01:003,377 MW2,984 MW
11 Nov, 02:003,451 MW2,963 MW
11 Nov, 03:003,339 MW2,965 MW
11 Nov, 04:003,465 MW3,048 MW
11 Nov, 05:003,624 MW3,229 MW
11 Nov, 06:003,699 MW3,533 MW
11 Nov, 07:003,937 MW3,693 MW
11 Nov, 08:003,966 MW3,704 MW
11 Nov, 09:003,977 MW3,658 MW
11 Nov, 10:003,939 MW3,627 MW
11 Nov, 11:003,831 MW3,597 MW
11 Nov, 12:003,860 MW3,611 MW
11 Nov, 13:003,963 MW3,599 MW
11 Nov, 14:003,788 MW3,588 MW
11 Nov, 15:003,758 MW3,573 MW
11 Nov, 16:003,835 MW3,558 MW
11 Nov, 17:003,912 MW3,593 MW
11 Nov, 18:004,065 MW3,664 MW
11 Nov, 19:004,041 MW3,630 MW
11 Nov, 20:003,943 MW3,564 MW
11 Nov, 21:003,841 MW3,448 MW
11 Nov, 22:003,644 MW3,296 MW
11 Nov, 23:003,472 MW3,161 MW
12 Nov, 00:003,463 MW3,064 MW
12 Nov, 01:003,292 MW2,999 MW
12 Nov, 02:003,317 MW2,963 MW
12 Nov, 03:003,288 MW2,958 MW
12 Nov, 04:003,289 MW3,016 MW
12 Nov, 05:003,451 MW3,174 MW
12 Nov, 06:003,792 MW3,407 MW
12 Nov, 07:004,005 MW3,575 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lgee/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lgee/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_lgee_2026,
  title = {{LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lgee/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lgee/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.