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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Lithuania was off by 6.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 49% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -4.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 589 MW (30.1%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Vilnius).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Lithuania was off by 6.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 49% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -4.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 589 MW (30.1%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Lithuania came 37 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 99 MW, against average demand of 1,531 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 25% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error6.4%
Bias-4.8%
Hours within 5%49%
Worst miss589 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-78 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 589 MW (30.1%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,368 MW, reported 1,958 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00)
Lithuania day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Lithuania over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 5 Nov, 16:006 Nov, 16:007 Nov, 16:008 Nov, 16:009 Nov, 16:0010 Nov, 16:0011 Nov, 16:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Lithuania over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 16:001,746 MW1,785 MW
5 Nov, 17:001,840 MW1,830 MW
5 Nov, 18:001,833 MW1,807 MW
5 Nov, 19:001,796 MW1,761 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,719 MW1,694 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,634 MW1,596 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,492 MW1,469 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,382 MW1,354 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,311 MW1,289 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,253 MW1,256 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,226 MW1,228 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,237 MW1,225 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,259 MW1,238 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,325 MW1,313 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,538 MW1,511 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,716 MW1,683 MW
6 Nov, 08:001,864 MW1,778 MW
6 Nov, 09:001,884 MW1,783 MW
6 Nov, 10:001,801 MW1,727 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,683 MW1,687 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,612 MW1,655 MW
6 Nov, 13:001,723 MW1,671 MW
6 Nov, 14:001,842 MW1,686 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,764 MW1,715 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,732 MW1,767 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,837 MW1,832 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,858 MW1,815 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,806 MW1,765 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,734 MW1,701 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,635 MW1,604 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,516 MW1,497 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,425 MW1,405 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,347 MW1,341 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,300 MW1,293 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,280 MW1,270 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,271 MW1,263 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,276 MW1,265 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,303 MW1,295 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,385 MW1,366 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,459 MW1,437 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,490 MW1,511 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,560 MW1,575 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,585 MW1,588 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,577 MW1,585 MW
7 Nov, 12:001,599 MW1,579 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,574 MW1,587 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,595 MW1,588 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,618 MW1,619 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,670 MW1,689 MW
7 Nov, 17:001,730 MW1,740 MW
7 Nov, 18:001,697 MW1,720 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,647 MW1,673 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,586 MW1,615 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,503 MW1,538 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,408 MW1,443 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,322 MW1,363 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,254 MW1,294 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,212 MW1,248 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,183 MW1,223 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,179 MW1,209 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,172 MW1,211 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,203 MW1,235 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,256 MW1,296 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,311 MW1,357 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,369 MW1,426 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,441 MW1,498 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,479 MW1,543 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,519 MW1,546 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,519 MW1,542 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,546 MW1,562 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,563 MW1,588 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,590 MW1,632 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,675 MW1,693 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,740 MW1,761 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,728 MW1,746 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,692 MW1,702 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,635 MW1,643 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,547 MW1,547 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,416 MW1,434 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,320 MW1,336 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,269 MW1,272 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,228 MW1,247 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,210 MW1,225 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,191 MW1,219 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,210 MW1,240 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,301 MW1,328 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,549 MW1,554 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,741 MW1,736 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,864 MW1,851 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,893 MW1,883 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,847 MW1,846 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,855 MW1,819 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,826 MW1,794 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,859 MW1,823 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,853 MW1,831 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,876 MW1,846 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,872 MW1,872 MW
9 Nov, 17:001,936 MW1,923 MW
9 Nov, 18:001,914 MW1,908 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,866 MW1,855 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,800 MW1,785 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,685 MW1,683 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,553 MW1,544 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,426 MW1,430 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,383 MW1,373 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,320 MW1,303 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,286 MW1,288 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,293 MW1,289 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,308 MW1,308 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,405 MW1,390 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,656 MW1,607 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,838 MW1,793 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,998 MW1,899 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,027 MW1,909 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,965 MW1,842 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,833 MW1,780 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,805 MW1,755 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,916 MW1,778 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,994 MW1,806 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,968 MW1,841 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,976 MW1,879 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,028 MW1,939 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,031 MW1,927 MW
10 Nov, 19:001,978 MW1,881 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,921 MW1,810 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,797 MW1,705 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,641 MW1,564 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,517 MW1,449 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,467 MW1,374 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,409 MW1,327 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,387 MW1,307 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,399 MW1,307 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,420 MW1,326 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,510 MW1,407 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,748 MW1,636 MW
11 Nov, 07:001,939 MW1,816 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,071 MW1,928 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,095 MW1,962 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,066 MW1,928 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,029 MW1,895 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,002 MW1,859 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,046 MW1,874 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,027 MW1,888 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,013 MW1,902 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,038 MW1,923 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,075 MW1,965 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,055 MW1,941 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,002 MW1,889 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,930 MW1,824 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,807 MW1,717 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,642 MW1,576 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,511 MW1,458 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,441 MW1,380 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,398 MW1,348 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,369 MW1,325 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,382 MW1,319 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,402 MW1,337 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,471 MW1,418 MW
12 Nov, 06:001,730 MW1,645 MW
12 Nov, 07:001,923 MW1,823 MW
12 Nov, 08:002,038 MW1,936 MW
12 Nov, 09:002,089 MW1,968 MW
12 Nov, 10:002,053 MW1,939 MW
12 Nov, 11:002,057 MW1,914 MW
12 Nov, 12:002,047 MW1,887 MW
12 Nov, 13:002,075 MW1,895 MW
12 Nov, 14:002,064 MW1,905 MW
12 Nov, 15:002,080 MW1,924 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lt/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lt/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_lt_2026,
  title = {{Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lt/}
}

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