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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Slovenia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Slovenia was off by 3.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 73% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 549 MW (23.4%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Ljubljana).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Slovenia was off by 3.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 73% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 549 MW (23.4%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Slovenia came 28 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 59 MW, against average demand of 1,586 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 46% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error3.7%
Bias-0.2%
Hours within 5%73%
Worst miss549 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-9 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 549 MW (23.4%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,797 MW, reported 2,346 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Slovenia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Slovenia over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 5 Nov, 15:006 Nov, 15:007 Nov, 15:008 Nov, 15:009 Nov, 15:0010 Nov, 15:0011 Nov, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Slovenia over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 15:001,838 MW1,766 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,809 MW1,783 MW
5 Nov, 17:001,862 MW1,807 MW
5 Nov, 18:001,857 MW1,852 MW
5 Nov, 19:001,864 MW1,863 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,835 MW1,788 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,706 MW1,666 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,622 MW1,584 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,519 MW1,519 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,447 MW1,386 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,400 MW1,383 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,379 MW1,396 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,398 MW1,416 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,393 MW1,447 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,490 MW1,548 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,729 MW1,744 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,871 MW1,896 MW
6 Nov, 08:001,991 MW1,928 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,033 MW1,924 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,037 MW1,926 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,084 MW1,922 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,095 MW1,865 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,054 MW1,821 MW
6 Nov, 14:001,919 MW1,773 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,860 MW1,728 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,783 MW1,741 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,807 MW1,784 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,841 MW1,832 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,871 MW1,834 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,814 MW1,739 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,666 MW1,616 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,589 MW1,549 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,506 MW1,460 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,391 MW1,315 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,346 MW1,256 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,345 MW1,227 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,347 MW1,222 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,319 MW1,229 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,335 MW1,268 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,429 MW1,352 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,572 MW1,479 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,688 MW1,546 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,736 MW1,585 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,775 MW1,624 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,807 MW1,628 MW
7 Nov, 12:001,840 MW1,623 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,766 MW1,590 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,642 MW1,567 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,628 MW1,599 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,585 MW1,601 MW
7 Nov, 17:001,637 MW1,584 MW
7 Nov, 18:001,621 MW1,587 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,616 MW1,581 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,591 MW1,547 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,514 MW1,517 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,450 MW1,453 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,334 MW1,407 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,278 MW1,284 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,224 MW1,228 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,198 MW1,200 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,200 MW1,207 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,192 MW1,211 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,213 MW1,241 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,309 MW1,340 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,418 MW1,420 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,524 MW1,465 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,635 MW1,518 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,695 MW1,572 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,746 MW1,572 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,700 MW1,559 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,590 MW1,515 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,533 MW1,509 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,491 MW1,506 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,531 MW1,514 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,606 MW1,544 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,629 MW1,573 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,657 MW1,591 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,633 MW1,557 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,608 MW1,498 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,497 MW1,425 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,413 MW1,356 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,380 MW1,301 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,315 MW1,310 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,363 MW1,314 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,375 MW1,315 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,377 MW1,359 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,503 MW1,486 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,846 MW1,747 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,978 MW1,923 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,007 MW1,999 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,019 MW1,979 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,991 MW1,982 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,982 MW1,948 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,937 MW1,907 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,902 MW1,839 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,817 MW1,807 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,781 MW1,785 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,774 MW1,853 MW
9 Nov, 17:001,787 MW1,890 MW
9 Nov, 18:001,835 MW1,925 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,873 MW1,936 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,833 MW1,863 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,734 MW1,721 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,658 MW1,610 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,610 MW1,528 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,472 MW1,301 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,409 MW1,318 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,385 MW1,318 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,395 MW1,321 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,352 MW1,348 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,502 MW1,498 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,748 MW1,739 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,861 MW1,890 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,909 MW1,945 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,961 MW1,899 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,968 MW1,910 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,998 MW1,883 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,983 MW1,878 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,906 MW1,852 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,851 MW1,814 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,809 MW1,780 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,802 MW1,786 MW
10 Nov, 17:001,811 MW1,803 MW
10 Nov, 18:001,851 MW1,855 MW
10 Nov, 19:001,822 MW1,851 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,782 MW1,808 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,691 MW1,691 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,626 MW1,588 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,531 MW1,501 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,460 MW1,373 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,392 MW1,367 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,370 MW1,371 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,354 MW1,371 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,359 MW1,377 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,454 MW1,518 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,809 MW1,764 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,076 MW1,934 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,224 MW2,023 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,089 MW1,999 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,069 MW2,008 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,081 MW2,006 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,071 MW2,001 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,067 MW1,935 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,986 MW1,843 MW
11 Nov, 15:001,960 MW1,788 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,024 MW1,826 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,043 MW1,872 MW
11 Nov, 18:001,768 MW1,880 MW
11 Nov, 19:001,879 MW1,864 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,815 MW1,805 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,703 MW1,696 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,640 MW1,581 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,541 MW1,480 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,482 MW1,325 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,450 MW1,321 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,418 MW1,331 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,419 MW1,335 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,377 MW1,373 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,464 MW1,511 MW
12 Nov, 06:001,836 MW1,756 MW
12 Nov, 07:002,182 MW1,918 MW
12 Nov, 08:002,124 MW1,978 MW
12 Nov, 09:001,555 MW1,969 MW
12 Nov, 10:001,956 MW1,982 MW
12 Nov, 11:001,985 MW2,011 MW
12 Nov, 12:001,978 MW2,002 MW
12 Nov, 13:001,965 MW1,947 MW
12 Nov, 14:001,366 MW1,854 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Slovenia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/si/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Slovenia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/si/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_si_2026,
  title = {{Slovenia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/si/}
}

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