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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) was off by 18.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 19% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +16.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,066 MW (107.1%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) was off by 18.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 19% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +16.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,066 MW (107.1%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden North-Central (SE2) came 46 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 274 MW, against average demand of 1,647 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 85% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error18.7%
Bias+16.8%
Hours within 5%19%
Worst miss1,066 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+236 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,066 MW (107.1%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,061 MW, reported 995 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden North-Central (SE2) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:001,816 MW2,008 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,938 MW2,048 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,895 MW2,070 MW
5 Nov, 17:001,888 MW2,091 MW
5 Nov, 18:001,829 MW2,087 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,144 MW2,077 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,983 MW2,040 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,896 MW1,986 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,752 MW1,916 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,518 MW1,866 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,551 MW1,805 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,535 MW1,789 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,534 MW1,788 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,770 MW1,801 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,032 MW1,851 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,871 MW1,959 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,932 MW2,110 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,145 MW2,187 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,170 MW2,218 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,017 MW2,200 MW
6 Nov, 10:001,875 MW2,161 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,874 MW2,131 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,828 MW2,106 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,019 MW2,098 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,004 MW2,107 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,735 MW2,141 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,428 MW2,172 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,413 MW2,200 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,155 MW2,161 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,323 MW2,130 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,365 MW2,083 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,562 MW2,030 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,353 MW1,969 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,516 MW1,927 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,568 MW1,893 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,476 MW1,867 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,363 MW1,860 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,592 MW1,853 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,476 MW1,853 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,384 MW1,888 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,431 MW1,909 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,442 MW1,918 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,554 MW1,960 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,763 MW1,983 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,846 MW1,973 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,043 MW1,939 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,144 MW1,911 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,821 MW1,902 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,747 MW1,922 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,719 MW1,979 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,929 MW2,044 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,006 MW2,091 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,012 MW2,061 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,924 MW2,018 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,830 MW1,982 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,862 MW1,927 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,768 MW1,888 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,802 MW1,854 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,791 MW1,839 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,888 MW1,812 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,885 MW1,785 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,902 MW1,788 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,791 MW1,803 MW
8 Nov, 05:002,153 MW1,843 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,983 MW1,865 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,853 MW1,876 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,466 MW1,914 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,542 MW1,937 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,981 MW1,957 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,011 MW1,953 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,911 MW1,938 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,887 MW1,928 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,762 MW1,950 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,836 MW2,013 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,928 MW2,095 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,942 MW2,141 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,759 MW2,143 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,745 MW2,125 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,701 MW2,078 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,829 MW2,041 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,822 MW2,006 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,760 MW1,948 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,619 MW1,907 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,546 MW1,891 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,453 MW1,892 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,521 MW1,890 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,428 MW1,923 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,588 MW1,980 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,756 MW2,107 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,750 MW2,187 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,770 MW2,191 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,888 MW2,191 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,826 MW2,174 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,904 MW2,148 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,889 MW2,117 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,157 MW2,102 MW
9 Nov, 14:002,124 MW2,126 MW
9 Nov, 15:002,028 MW2,170 MW
9 Nov, 16:002,037 MW2,205 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,148 MW2,215 MW
9 Nov, 18:001,958 MW2,196 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,912 MW2,178 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,861 MW2,139 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,909 MW2,076 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,838 MW2,023 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,697 MW1,980 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,474 MW1,933 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,566 MW1,889 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,450 MW1,877 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,427 MW1,891 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,343 MW1,928 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,537 MW1,991 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,024 MW2,118 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,945 MW2,190 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,609 MW2,207 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,726 MW2,196 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,856 MW2,185 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,036 MW2,176 MW
10 Nov, 12:002,159 MW2,160 MW
10 Nov, 13:002,130 MW2,142 MW
10 Nov, 14:002,075 MW2,155 MW
10 Nov, 15:002,028 MW2,195 MW
10 Nov, 16:002,135 MW2,230 MW
10 Nov, 17:001,963 MW2,252 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,123 MW2,231 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,206 MW2,212 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,115 MW2,169 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,058 MW2,119 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,956 MW2,062 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,851 MW2,003 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,770 MW1,957 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,634 MW1,924 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,587 MW1,919 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,487 MW1,924 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,480 MW1,955 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,402 MW2,045 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,415 MW2,178 MW
11 Nov, 07:001,387 MW2,243 MW
11 Nov, 08:001,399 MW2,268 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,494 MW2,237 MW
11 Nov, 10:001,554 MW2,226 MW
11 Nov, 11:001,728 MW2,226 MW
11 Nov, 12:001,732 MW2,211 MW
11 Nov, 13:001,781 MW2,208 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,703 MW2,221 MW
11 Nov, 15:001,671 MW2,258 MW
11 Nov, 16:001,675 MW2,274 MW
11 Nov, 17:001,705 MW2,283 MW
11 Nov, 18:001,766 MW2,264 MW
11 Nov, 19:001,718 MW2,246 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,555 MW2,199 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,556 MW2,136 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,685 MW2,067 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,852 MW2,007 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,965 MW1,976 MW
12 Nov, 01:002,018 MW1,922 MW
12 Nov, 02:002,062 MW1,913 MW
12 Nov, 03:002,084 MW1,930 MW
12 Nov, 04:002,136 MW1,972 MW
12 Nov, 05:002,177 MW2,062 MW
12 Nov, 06:002,270 MW2,192 MW
12 Nov, 07:002,342 MW2,245 MW
12 Nov, 08:002,323 MW2,270 MW
12 Nov, 09:002,372 MW2,271 MW
12 Nov, 10:002,522 MW2,270 MW
12 Nov, 11:002,734 MW2,263 MW
12 Nov, 12:002,806 MW2,246 MW
12 Nov, 13:002,715 MW2,246 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se2/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se2/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se2_2026,
  title = {{Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se2/}
}

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