Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Montenegro was off by 6.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 669 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 65% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 599 MW (58.0%) too low at 12 Nov 2026, 09:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Podgorica).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Montenegro was off by 6.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 669 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 65% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 599 MW (58.0%) too low at 12 Nov 2026, 09:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Montenegro came 36 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 24 MW, against average demand of 351 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 60% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

669 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error6.4%

Bias+1.7%

Hours within 5%65%

Worst miss599 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+2 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 599 MW (58.0%) too low at 12 Nov 2026, 09:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 434 MW, reported 1,033 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 10:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Montenegro over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 10:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 11:00	317 MW	359 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	318 MW	354 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	326 MW	355 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	343 MW	365 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	374 MW	389 MW
5 Nov, 16:00	422 MW	425 MW
5 Nov, 17:00	463 MW	459 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	468 MW	466 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	465 MW	465 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	460 MW	455 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	443 MW	438 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	412 MW	417 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	373 MW	374 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	326 MW	331 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	285 MW	291 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	262 MW	267 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	249 MW	260 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	249 MW	260 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	271 MW	278 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	324 MW	328 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	368 MW	376 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	327 MW	386 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	268 MW	379 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	322 MW	363 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	311 MW	355 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	308 MW	350 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	319 MW	357 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	259 MW	366 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	305 MW	390 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	399 MW	431 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	400 MW	466 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	404 MW	473 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	412 MW	473 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	405 MW	462 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	449 MW	446 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	417 MW	418 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	383 MW	379 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	334 MW	328 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	294 MW	290 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	268 MW	266 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	256 MW	256 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	253 MW	255 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	267 MW	271 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	295 MW	305 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	344 MW	351 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	378 MW	383 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	360 MW	378 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	351 MW	364 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	347 MW	356 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	339 MW	352 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	339 MW	355 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	354 MW	366 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	328 MW	390 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	381 MW	428 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	421 MW	465 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	427 MW	473 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	476 MW	474 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	470 MW	465 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	451 MW	448 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	425 MW	417 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	392 MW	379 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	342 MW	335 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	302 MW	296 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	276 MW	270 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	263 MW	259 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	258 MW	255 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	267 MW	266 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	284 MW	296 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	325 MW	341 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	368 MW	380 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	400 MW	393 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	413 MW	384 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	417 MW	382 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	437 MW	376 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	499 MW	379 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	496 MW	389 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	507 MW	401 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	475 MW	445 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	489 MW	479 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	489 MW	486 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	489 MW	489 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	486 MW	478 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	470 MW	463 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	434 MW	437 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	380 MW	407 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	328 MW	330 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	287 MW	295 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	264 MW	274 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	254 MW	264 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	253 MW	263 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	271 MW	279 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	323 MW	325 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	383 MW	378 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	414 MW	406 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	410 MW	416 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	384 MW	412 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	409 MW	405 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	409 MW	398 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	403 MW	394 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	402 MW	394 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	419 MW	406 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	453 MW	443 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	486 MW	486 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	489 MW	491 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	485 MW	491 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	480 MW	482 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	464 MW	466 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	435 MW	436 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	394 MW	398 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	342 MW	336 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	299 MW	297 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	274 MW	273 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	262 MW	263 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	262 MW	261 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	285 MW	280 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	342 MW	330 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	393 MW	389 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	401 MW	423 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	416 MW	430 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	421 MW	430 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	431 MW	433 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	436 MW	436 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	434 MW	440 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	443 MW	440 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	460 MW	447 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	487 MW	462 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	507 MW	482 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	510 MW	487 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	500 MW	489 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	486 MW	476 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	470 MW	460 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	432 MW	428 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	391 MW	389 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	340 MW	326 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	300 MW	285 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	274 MW	260 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	262 MW	255 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	261 MW	255 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	277 MW	267 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	325 MW	324 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	386 MW	382 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	447 MW	413 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	505 MW	420 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	418 MW	419 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	403 MW	420 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	397 MW	416 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	400 MW	413 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	346 MW	412 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	338 MW	425 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	359 MW	451 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	375 MW	476 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	370 MW	479 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	371 MW	477 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	436 MW	468 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	419 MW	449 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	393 MW	418 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	361 MW	378 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	446 MW	338 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	284 MW	296 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	236 MW	271 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	251 MW	261 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	304 MW	258 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	346 MW	276 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	452 MW	327 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	598 MW	387 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	915 MW	424 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	1,033 MW	434 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	1,024 MW	435 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (669 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_me_2026,
  title = {{Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/

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Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related