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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Serbia was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,514 MW (30.8%) too low at 9 Nov 2026, 10:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Belgrade).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Serbia was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 1,514 MW (30.8%) too low at 9 Nov 2026, 10:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Serbia came 27 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 147 MW, against average demand of 4,086 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 52% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error3.6%
Bias+0.4%
Hours within 5%74%
Worst miss1,514 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+10 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 1,514 MW (30.8%) too low at 9 Nov 2026, 10:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 3,402 MW, reported 4,916 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Serbia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Serbia over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Serbia over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:004,519 MW4,475 MW
5 Nov, 15:004,656 MW4,522 MW
5 Nov, 16:004,729 MW4,750 MW
5 Nov, 17:004,988 MW4,880 MW
5 Nov, 18:004,902 MW4,879 MW
5 Nov, 19:004,859 MW4,855 MW
5 Nov, 20:004,828 MW4,793 MW
5 Nov, 21:004,676 MW4,620 MW
5 Nov, 22:004,600 MW4,466 MW
5 Nov, 23:004,372 MW4,369 MW
6 Nov, 00:004,210 MW4,315 MW
6 Nov, 01:003,933 MW4,021 MW
6 Nov, 02:003,679 MW3,761 MW
6 Nov, 03:003,519 MW3,631 MW
6 Nov, 04:003,557 MW3,657 MW
6 Nov, 05:003,786 MW3,822 MW
6 Nov, 06:004,172 MW4,284 MW
6 Nov, 07:004,531 MW4,660 MW
6 Nov, 08:004,577 MW4,769 MW
6 Nov, 09:004,503 MW4,737 MW
6 Nov, 10:004,363 MW4,658 MW
6 Nov, 11:004,193 MW4,547 MW
6 Nov, 12:004,234 MW4,464 MW
6 Nov, 13:004,283 MW4,422 MW
6 Nov, 14:004,263 MW4,390 MW
6 Nov, 15:004,446 MW4,466 MW
6 Nov, 16:004,779 MW4,744 MW
6 Nov, 17:004,969 MW4,904 MW
6 Nov, 18:004,962 MW4,931 MW
6 Nov, 19:004,961 MW4,933 MW
6 Nov, 20:004,958 MW4,858 MW
6 Nov, 21:004,671 MW4,721 MW
6 Nov, 22:004,461 MW4,596 MW
6 Nov, 23:004,456 MW4,548 MW
7 Nov, 00:004,283 MW4,523 MW
7 Nov, 01:004,033 MW4,254 MW
7 Nov, 02:003,764 MW3,995 MW
7 Nov, 03:003,583 MW3,832 MW
7 Nov, 04:003,622 MW3,782 MW
7 Nov, 05:003,675 MW3,819 MW
7 Nov, 06:003,851 MW3,989 MW
7 Nov, 07:004,173 MW4,261 MW
7 Nov, 08:004,323 MW4,493 MW
7 Nov, 09:004,242 MW4,678 MW
7 Nov, 10:004,073 MW4,748 MW
7 Nov, 11:004,057 MW4,683 MW
7 Nov, 12:004,038 MW4,635 MW
7 Nov, 13:004,093 MW4,558 MW
7 Nov, 14:004,121 MW4,491 MW
7 Nov, 15:004,268 MW4,502 MW
7 Nov, 16:004,565 MW4,662 MW
7 Nov, 17:004,773 MW4,789 MW
7 Nov, 18:004,781 MW4,763 MW
7 Nov, 19:004,740 MW4,676 MW
7 Nov, 20:004,655 MW4,588 MW
7 Nov, 21:004,527 MW4,502 MW
7 Nov, 22:004,414 MW4,495 MW
7 Nov, 23:004,322 MW4,456 MW
8 Nov, 00:004,253 MW4,277 MW
8 Nov, 01:004,015 MW4,070 MW
8 Nov, 02:003,726 MW3,806 MW
8 Nov, 03:003,600 MW3,628 MW
8 Nov, 04:003,525 MW3,576 MW
8 Nov, 05:003,559 MW3,580 MW
8 Nov, 06:003,624 MW3,623 MW
8 Nov, 07:003,772 MW3,789 MW
8 Nov, 08:003,901 MW4,092 MW
8 Nov, 09:004,063 MW4,249 MW
8 Nov, 10:004,025 MW4,315 MW
8 Nov, 11:003,930 MW4,344 MW
8 Nov, 12:003,926 MW4,320 MW
8 Nov, 13:003,922 MW4,268 MW
8 Nov, 14:003,957 MW4,147 MW
8 Nov, 15:004,085 MW4,183 MW
8 Nov, 16:004,356 MW4,304 MW
8 Nov, 17:004,490 MW4,484 MW
8 Nov, 18:004,488 MW4,510 MW
8 Nov, 19:004,504 MW4,525 MW
8 Nov, 20:004,488 MW4,559 MW
8 Nov, 21:004,476 MW4,455 MW
8 Nov, 22:004,297 MW4,418 MW
8 Nov, 23:004,232 MW4,370 MW
9 Nov, 00:004,139 MW4,012 MW
9 Nov, 01:003,820 MW3,728 MW
9 Nov, 02:003,600 MW3,493 MW
9 Nov, 03:003,465 MW3,325 MW
9 Nov, 04:003,526 MW3,370 MW
9 Nov, 05:003,686 MW3,559 MW
9 Nov, 06:004,123 MW3,985 MW
9 Nov, 07:004,581 MW4,389 MW
9 Nov, 08:004,844 MW4,492 MW
9 Nov, 09:004,981 MW4,452 MW
9 Nov, 10:004,916 MW3,402 MW
9 Nov, 11:004,916 MW4,419 MW
9 Nov, 12:004,933 MW4,321 MW
9 Nov, 13:004,867 MW4,304 MW
9 Nov, 14:004,749 MW4,392 MW
9 Nov, 15:004,752 MW4,512 MW
9 Nov, 16:004,934 MW4,787 MW
9 Nov, 17:005,038 MW4,965 MW
9 Nov, 18:005,019 MW4,950 MW
9 Nov, 19:004,942 MW4,941 MW
9 Nov, 20:004,898 MW4,885 MW
9 Nov, 21:004,711 MW4,733 MW
9 Nov, 22:004,589 MW4,548 MW
9 Nov, 23:004,476 MW4,400 MW
10 Nov, 00:004,257 MW4,232 MW
10 Nov, 01:004,056 MW3,948 MW
10 Nov, 02:003,775 MW3,711 MW
10 Nov, 03:003,586 MW3,566 MW
10 Nov, 04:003,616 MW3,586 MW
10 Nov, 05:003,785 MW3,759 MW
10 Nov, 06:004,200 MW4,152 MW
10 Nov, 07:004,607 MW4,521 MW
10 Nov, 08:004,756 MW4,580 MW
10 Nov, 09:004,648 MW4,507 MW
10 Nov, 10:004,612 MW3,933 MW
10 Nov, 11:004,655 MW4,297 MW
10 Nov, 12:004,674 MW4,316 MW
10 Nov, 13:004,698 MW4,337 MW
10 Nov, 14:004,671 MW4,426 MW
10 Nov, 15:004,609 MW4,569 MW
10 Nov, 16:004,765 MW4,842 MW
10 Nov, 17:004,891 MW4,997 MW
10 Nov, 18:004,868 MW4,972 MW
10 Nov, 19:004,833 MW4,957 MW
10 Nov, 20:004,697 MW4,892 MW
10 Nov, 21:004,574 MW4,732 MW
10 Nov, 22:004,387 MW4,561 MW
10 Nov, 23:004,282 MW4,437 MW
11 Nov, 00:004,182 MW4,256 MW
11 Nov, 01:003,910 MW3,965 MW
11 Nov, 02:003,615 MW3,728 MW
11 Nov, 03:003,498 MW3,597 MW
11 Nov, 04:003,430 MW3,619 MW
11 Nov, 05:003,535 MW3,791 MW
11 Nov, 06:003,641 MW4,182 MW
11 Nov, 07:003,865 MW4,575 MW
11 Nov, 08:004,110 MW4,717 MW
11 Nov, 09:004,272 MW4,701 MW
11 Nov, 10:004,302 MW4,406 MW
11 Nov, 11:004,316 MW4,527 MW
11 Nov, 12:004,234 MW4,552 MW
11 Nov, 13:004,298 MW4,554 MW
11 Nov, 14:004,260 MW4,558 MW
11 Nov, 15:004,296 MW4,619 MW
11 Nov, 16:004,475 MW4,852 MW
11 Nov, 17:004,551 MW4,983 MW
11 Nov, 18:004,495 MW4,949 MW
11 Nov, 19:004,439 MW4,921 MW
11 Nov, 20:004,375 MW4,879 MW
11 Nov, 21:004,250 MW4,705 MW
11 Nov, 22:004,066 MW4,554 MW
11 Nov, 23:004,055 MW4,425 MW
12 Nov, 00:003,941 MW4,175 MW
12 Nov, 01:003,686 MW3,881 MW
12 Nov, 02:003,450 MW3,639 MW
12 Nov, 03:003,297 MW3,474 MW
12 Nov, 04:003,301 MW3,460 MW
12 Nov, 05:003,452 MW3,628 MW
12 Nov, 06:003,803 MW3,997 MW
12 Nov, 07:004,160 MW4,343 MW
12 Nov, 08:004,378 MW4,485 MW
12 Nov, 09:004,372 MW4,448 MW
12 Nov, 10:004,266 MW4,324 MW
12 Nov, 11:004,263 MW4,254 MW
12 Nov, 12:004,332 MW4,187 MW
12 Nov, 13:004,384 MW4,131 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/rs/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/rs/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_rs_2026,
  title = {{Serbia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/rs/}
}

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