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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway North (NO4) was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 82% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 285 MW (10.6%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 18:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway North (NO4) was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 82% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 285 MW (10.6%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 18:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway North (NO4) came 21 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 77 MW, against average demand of 2,369 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 14% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error3.2%
Bias-2.8%
Hours within 5%82%
Worst miss285 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-70 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 285 MW (10.6%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 18:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 2,400 MW, reported 2,685 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway North (NO4) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway North (NO4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway North (NO4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:002,656 MW2,418 MW
5 Nov, 15:002,695 MW2,412 MW
5 Nov, 16:002,686 MW2,411 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,664 MW2,403 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,685 MW2,400 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,660 MW2,419 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,629 MW2,386 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,609 MW2,378 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,551 MW2,341 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,495 MW2,271 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,456 MW2,344 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,404 MW2,330 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,369 MW2,297 MW
6 Nov, 03:002,341 MW2,280 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,351 MW2,271 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,360 MW2,314 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,443 MW2,354 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,567 MW2,451 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,628 MW2,489 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,637 MW2,486 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,612 MW2,464 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,608 MW2,494 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,564 MW2,474 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,539 MW2,482 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,576 MW2,484 MW
6 Nov, 15:002,611 MW2,503 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,581 MW2,517 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,596 MW2,482 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,583 MW2,459 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,546 MW2,470 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,507 MW2,449 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,479 MW2,414 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,412 MW2,367 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,354 MW2,323 MW
7 Nov, 00:002,344 MW2,332 MW
7 Nov, 01:002,282 MW2,301 MW
7 Nov, 02:002,236 MW2,262 MW
7 Nov, 03:002,233 MW2,248 MW
7 Nov, 04:002,256 MW2,228 MW
7 Nov, 05:002,233 MW2,244 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,224 MW2,285 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,308 MW2,342 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,362 MW2,384 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,408 MW2,410 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,433 MW2,433 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,433 MW2,463 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,475 MW2,434 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,474 MW2,435 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,493 MW2,457 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,455 MW2,446 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,431 MW2,460 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,448 MW2,454 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,467 MW2,441 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,471 MW2,445 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,427 MW2,414 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,399 MW2,388 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,360 MW2,358 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,347 MW2,312 MW
8 Nov, 00:002,302 MW2,274 MW
8 Nov, 01:002,273 MW2,255 MW
8 Nov, 02:002,240 MW2,214 MW
8 Nov, 03:002,221 MW2,223 MW
8 Nov, 04:002,226 MW2,188 MW
8 Nov, 05:002,240 MW2,192 MW
8 Nov, 06:002,249 MW2,223 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,259 MW2,276 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,285 MW2,285 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,332 MW2,317 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,349 MW2,313 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,375 MW2,326 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,391 MW2,333 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,397 MW2,336 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,419 MW2,363 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,431 MW2,362 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,444 MW2,399 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,444 MW2,377 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,434 MW2,368 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,432 MW2,378 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,416 MW2,371 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,423 MW2,339 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,371 MW2,312 MW
8 Nov, 23:002,298 MW2,272 MW
9 Nov, 00:002,268 MW2,234 MW
9 Nov, 01:002,259 MW2,219 MW
9 Nov, 02:002,220 MW2,187 MW
9 Nov, 03:002,222 MW2,177 MW
9 Nov, 04:002,228 MW2,186 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,234 MW2,203 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,349 MW2,270 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,391 MW2,357 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,462 MW2,393 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,466 MW2,417 MW
9 Nov, 10:002,456 MW2,418 MW
9 Nov, 11:002,487 MW2,425 MW
9 Nov, 12:002,443 MW2,419 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,509 MW2,443 MW
9 Nov, 14:002,534 MW2,466 MW
9 Nov, 15:002,598 MW2,466 MW
9 Nov, 16:002,615 MW2,469 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,604 MW2,468 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,611 MW2,440 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,607 MW2,467 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,633 MW2,449 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,613 MW2,439 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,558 MW2,406 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,462 MW2,361 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,439 MW2,333 MW
10 Nov, 01:002,413 MW2,307 MW
10 Nov, 02:002,389 MW2,278 MW
10 Nov, 03:002,384 MW2,275 MW
10 Nov, 04:002,389 MW2,283 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,409 MW2,287 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,530 MW2,374 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,643 MW2,466 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,712 MW2,496 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,713 MW2,485 MW
10 Nov, 10:002,652 MW2,486 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,640 MW2,497 MW
10 Nov, 12:002,634 MW2,479 MW
10 Nov, 13:002,629 MW2,495 MW
10 Nov, 14:002,729 MW2,514 MW
10 Nov, 15:002,789 MW2,529 MW
10 Nov, 16:002,796 MW2,537 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,779 MW2,510 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,750 MW2,501 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,741 MW2,507 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,709 MW2,495 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,657 MW2,480 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,592 MW2,449 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,561 MW2,399 MW
11 Nov, 00:002,565 MW2,440 MW
11 Nov, 01:002,534 MW2,415 MW
11 Nov, 02:002,500 MW2,389 MW
11 Nov, 03:002,492 MW2,397 MW
11 Nov, 04:002,494 MW2,380 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,530 MW2,420 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,606 MW2,500 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,726 MW2,599 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,750 MW2,632 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,777 MW2,629 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,777 MW2,628 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,769 MW2,639 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,756 MW2,625 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,746 MW2,627 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,831 MW2,646 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,892 MW2,657 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,865 MW2,664 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,840 MW2,646 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,814 MW2,649 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,845 MW2,647 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,825 MW2,625 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,826 MW2,606 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,771 MW2,575 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,728 MW2,526 MW
12 Nov, 00:002,648 MW2,511 MW
12 Nov, 01:002,636 MW2,495 MW
12 Nov, 02:002,597 MW2,478 MW
12 Nov, 03:002,588 MW2,470 MW
12 Nov, 04:002,587 MW2,477 MW
12 Nov, 05:002,607 MW2,518 MW
12 Nov, 06:002,719 MW2,606 MW
12 Nov, 07:002,846 MW2,713 MW
12 Nov, 08:002,887 MW2,747 MW
12 Nov, 09:002,905 MW2,737 MW
12 Nov, 10:002,899 MW2,723 MW
12 Nov, 11:002,840 MW2,714 MW
12 Nov, 12:002,869 MW2,714 MW
12 Nov, 13:002,857 MW2,733 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no4/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no4/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no4_2026,
  title = {{Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no4/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no4/

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