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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PGE was off by 1.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 351 MW (11.6%) too low at 6 Nov 2026, 13:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PGE was off by 1.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 351 MW (11.6%) too low at 6 Nov 2026, 13:00 PST (UTC-08:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PGE came 2 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 40 MW, against average demand of 2,615 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 71% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error1.5%
Bias+0.7%
Hours within 5%96%
Worst miss351 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+16 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 351 MW (11.6%) too low at 6 Nov 2026, 13:00 PST (UTC-08:00): forecast 2,667 MW, reported 3,018 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
PGE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PGE over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 05:006 Nov, 05:007 Nov, 05:008 Nov, 05:009 Nov, 05:0010 Nov, 05:0011 Nov, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PGE over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:002,478 MW2,489 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,740 MW2,741 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,882 MW2,895 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,877 MW2,904 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,824 MW2,868 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,745 MW2,831 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,693 MW2,807 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,660 MW2,794 MW
5 Nov, 13:002,622 MW2,793 MW
5 Nov, 14:002,643 MW2,801 MW
5 Nov, 15:002,694 MW2,846 MW
5 Nov, 16:002,813 MW2,951 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,949 MW3,055 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,938 MW3,012 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,876 MW2,953 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,814 MW2,863 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,725 MW2,777 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,607 MW2,611 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,453 MW2,479 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,345 MW2,363 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,273 MW2,293 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,240 MW2,254 MW
6 Nov, 03:002,231 MW2,260 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,302 MW2,332 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,460 MW2,500 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,683 MW2,740 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,643 MW2,853 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,842 MW2,848 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,861 MW2,779 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,846 MW2,708 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,800 MW2,669 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,810 MW2,669 MW
6 Nov, 13:003,018 MW2,667 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,618 MW2,668 MW
6 Nov, 15:002,864 MW2,718 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,931 MW2,824 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,978 MW2,926 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,906 MW2,874 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,819 MW2,800 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,734 MW2,726 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,660 MW2,651 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,544 MW2,540 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,396 MW2,419 MW
7 Nov, 00:002,295 MW2,331 MW
7 Nov, 01:002,212 MW2,231 MW
7 Nov, 02:002,152 MW2,176 MW
7 Nov, 03:002,139 MW2,153 MW
7 Nov, 04:002,157 MW2,167 MW
7 Nov, 05:002,212 MW2,230 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,310 MW2,334 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,432 MW2,440 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,517 MW2,537 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,577 MW2,566 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,602 MW2,576 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,615 MW2,554 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,555 MW2,534 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,514 MW2,541 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,580 MW2,580 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,618 MW2,620 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,705 MW2,709 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,804 MW2,801 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,760 MW2,757 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,702 MW2,703 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,636 MW2,618 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,541 MW2,538 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,427 MW2,415 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,309 MW2,330 MW
8 Nov, 00:002,226 MW2,263 MW
8 Nov, 01:002,156 MW2,179 MW
8 Nov, 02:002,122 MW2,147 MW
8 Nov, 03:002,103 MW2,137 MW
8 Nov, 04:002,121 MW2,155 MW
8 Nov, 05:002,177 MW2,211 MW
8 Nov, 06:002,268 MW2,329 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,379 MW2,441 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,482 MW2,535 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,471 MW2,572 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,489 MW2,571 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,512 MW2,560 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,509 MW2,527 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,544 MW2,533 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,578 MW2,574 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,642 MW2,642 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,759 MW2,800 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,884 MW2,962 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,865 MW2,957 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,808 MW2,920 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,730 MW2,813 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,622 MW2,709 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,474 MW2,564 MW
8 Nov, 23:002,331 MW2,425 MW
9 Nov, 00:002,239 MW2,300 MW
9 Nov, 01:002,175 MW2,200 MW
9 Nov, 02:002,151 MW2,172 MW
9 Nov, 03:002,171 MW2,184 MW
9 Nov, 04:002,263 MW2,267 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,438 MW2,449 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,709 MW2,708 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,872 MW2,872 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,856 MW2,899 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,872 MW2,895 MW
9 Nov, 10:002,905 MW2,875 MW
9 Nov, 11:002,918 MW2,862 MW
9 Nov, 12:002,950 MW2,889 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,925 MW2,909 MW
9 Nov, 14:002,923 MW2,889 MW
9 Nov, 15:002,942 MW2,958 MW
9 Nov, 16:003,065 MW3,026 MW
9 Nov, 17:003,130 MW3,084 MW
9 Nov, 18:003,065 MW3,057 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,985 MW2,967 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,869 MW2,878 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,751 MW2,773 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,595 MW2,623 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,434 MW2,466 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,319 MW2,343 MW
10 Nov, 01:002,250 MW2,260 MW
10 Nov, 02:002,200 MW2,209 MW
10 Nov, 03:002,184 MW2,200 MW
10 Nov, 04:002,252 MW2,263 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,410 MW2,422 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,650 MW2,666 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,814 MW2,822 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,843 MW2,850 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,884 MW2,832 MW
10 Nov, 10:002,929 MW2,804 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,943 MW2,830 MW
10 Nov, 12:002,947 MW2,826 MW
10 Nov, 13:002,893 MW2,837 MW
10 Nov, 14:002,838 MW2,842 MW
10 Nov, 15:002,823 MW2,877 MW
10 Nov, 16:002,910 MW2,965 MW
10 Nov, 17:003,026 MW3,047 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,981 MW2,999 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,911 MW2,925 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,818 MW2,841 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,721 MW2,740 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,593 MW2,590 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,442 MW2,436 MW
11 Nov, 00:002,333 MW2,322 MW
11 Nov, 01:002,272 MW2,275 MW
11 Nov, 02:002,219 MW2,226 MW
11 Nov, 03:002,216 MW2,217 MW
11 Nov, 04:002,280 MW2,281 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,427 MW2,445 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,624 MW2,691 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,748 MW2,846 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,766 MW2,844 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,710 MW2,767 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,704 MW2,704 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,668 MW2,676 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,669 MW2,684 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,707 MW2,709 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,751 MW2,735 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,785 MW2,780 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,870 MW2,887 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,980 MW2,999 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,941 MW2,960 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,866 MW2,894 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,857 MW2,818 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,691 MW2,733 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,551 MW2,583 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,403 MW2,432 MW
12 Nov, 00:002,302 MW2,309 MW
12 Nov, 01:002,229 MW2,227 MW
12 Nov, 02:002,197 MW2,177 MW
12 Nov, 03:002,187 MW2,176 MW
12 Nov, 04:002,257 MW2,244 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pge/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pge/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pge_2026,
  title = {{PGE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pge/}
}

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