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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

SWPW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SWPW was off by 12.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 52% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +11.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 930 MW (35.5%) too high at 9 Nov 2026, 14:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SWPW was off by 12.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 52% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +11.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 930 MW (35.5%) too high at 9 Nov 2026, 14:00 CST (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SWPW came 45 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 323 MW, against average demand of 2,658 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 83% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error12.2%
Bias+11.5%
Hours within 5%52%
Worst miss930 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+303 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 930 MW (35.5%) too high at 9 Nov 2026, 14:00 CST (UTC-06:00): forecast 3,549 MW, reported 2,619 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00)
SWPW day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SWPW over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 07:006 Nov, 07:007 Nov, 07:008 Nov, 07:009 Nov, 07:0010 Nov, 07:0011 Nov, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SWPW over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 06:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 07:002,919 MW3,401 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,965 MW3,519 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,867 MW3,550 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,732 MW3,520 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,719 MW3,480 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,709 MW3,421 MW
5 Nov, 13:002,648 MW3,459 MW
5 Nov, 14:002,643 MW3,448 MW
5 Nov, 15:002,620 MW3,445 MW
5 Nov, 16:002,676 MW3,478 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,798 MW3,536 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,947 MW3,635 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,947 MW3,651 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,911 MW3,600 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,877 MW3,550 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,814 MW3,533 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,711 MW3,427 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,623 MW2,661 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,565 MW2,600 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,519 MW2,565 MW
6 Nov, 03:002,498 MW2,528 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,510 MW2,532 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,566 MW2,578 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,678 MW2,676 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,833 MW2,850 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,877 MW2,918 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,797 MW2,889 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,730 MW2,805 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,678 MW2,744 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,570 MW2,665 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,530 MW2,664 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,574 MW2,635 MW
6 Nov, 15:002,612 MW2,648 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,706 MW2,724 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,804 MW2,815 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,948 MW2,933 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,938 MW2,932 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,903 MW2,901 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,876 MW2,871 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,836 MW2,830 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,760 MW2,768 MW
7 Nov, 00:002,682 MW3,295 MW
7 Nov, 01:002,617 MW3,190 MW
7 Nov, 02:002,593 MW3,143 MW
7 Nov, 03:002,577 MW3,117 MW
7 Nov, 04:002,577 MW3,126 MW
7 Nov, 05:002,604 MW3,153 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,669 MW3,195 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,740 MW3,306 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,720 MW3,383 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,640 MW3,382 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,590 MW3,353 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,549 MW3,310 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,482 MW3,274 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,582 MW3,235 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,666 MW3,240 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,362 MW3,269 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,497 MW3,330 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,732 MW3,410 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,835 MW3,488 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,821 MW3,504 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,779 MW3,490 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,742 MW3,473 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,686 MW3,422 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,609 MW3,351 MW
8 Nov, 00:002,561 MW2,630 MW
8 Nov, 01:002,505 MW2,568 MW
8 Nov, 02:002,474 MW2,515 MW
8 Nov, 03:002,466 MW2,486 MW
8 Nov, 04:002,467 MW2,498 MW
8 Nov, 05:002,494 MW2,526 MW
8 Nov, 06:002,565 MW2,534 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,639 MW2,589 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,630 MW2,606 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,565 MW2,577 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,521 MW2,556 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,496 MW2,577 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,505 MW2,544 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,515 MW2,560 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,523 MW2,624 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,546 MW2,626 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,637 MW2,681 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,791 MW2,785 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,961 MW2,938 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,949 MW2,951 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,905 MW2,918 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,856 MW2,883 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,769 MW2,802 MW
8 Nov, 23:002,669 MW2,686 MW
9 Nov, 00:002,574 MW3,170 MW
9 Nov, 01:002,525 MW3,105 MW
9 Nov, 02:002,493 MW3,067 MW
9 Nov, 03:002,470 MW3,052 MW
9 Nov, 04:002,483 MW3,056 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,526 MW3,103 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,647 MW3,233 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,820 MW3,453 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,816 MW3,510 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,707 MW3,474 MW
9 Nov, 10:002,635 MW3,419 MW
9 Nov, 11:002,614 MW3,436 MW
9 Nov, 12:002,600 MW3,469 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,600 MW3,497 MW
9 Nov, 14:002,619 MW3,549 MW
9 Nov, 15:002,650 MW3,457 MW
9 Nov, 16:002,720 MW3,443 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,829 MW3,524 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,960 MW3,626 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,951 MW3,649 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,901 MW3,628 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,840 MW3,533 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,756 MW3,454 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,646 MW3,329 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,550 MWn/a
10 Nov, 01:002,493 MWn/a
10 Nov, 02:002,465 MWn/a
10 Nov, 03:002,455 MWn/a
10 Nov, 04:002,476 MWn/a
10 Nov, 05:002,541 MWn/a
10 Nov, 06:002,673 MWn/a
10 Nov, 07:002,856 MWn/a
10 Nov, 08:002,850 MWn/a
10 Nov, 09:002,717 MWn/a
10 Nov, 10:002,650 MWn/a
10 Nov, 11:002,647 MWn/a
10 Nov, 12:002,663 MWn/a
10 Nov, 13:002,680 MWn/a
10 Nov, 14:002,714 MWn/a
10 Nov, 15:002,733 MWn/a
10 Nov, 16:002,766 MWn/a
10 Nov, 17:002,872 MWn/a
10 Nov, 18:003,010 MWn/a
10 Nov, 19:003,017 MWn/a
10 Nov, 20:002,971 MWn/a
10 Nov, 21:002,911 MWn/a
10 Nov, 22:002,847 MWn/a
10 Nov, 23:002,744 MWn/a
11 Nov, 00:002,642 MW3,197 MW
11 Nov, 01:002,582 MW3,144 MW
11 Nov, 02:002,557 MW3,107 MW
11 Nov, 03:002,564 MW3,075 MW
11 Nov, 04:002,585 MW3,079 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,636 MW3,102 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,756 MW3,217 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,913 MW3,440 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,902 MW3,490 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,758 MW3,418 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,666 MW3,358 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,637 MW3,355 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,607 MW3,332 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,588 MW3,344 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,599 MW3,407 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,641 MW3,340 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,715 MW3,388 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,847 MW3,530 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,987 MW3,671 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,987 MW3,635 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,963 MW3,601 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,910 MW3,532 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,820 MW3,473 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,710 MW3,365 MW
12 Nov, 00:002,642 MW3,222 MW
12 Nov, 01:002,596 MW3,167 MW
12 Nov, 02:002,560 MW3,136 MW
12 Nov, 03:002,556 MW3,125 MW
12 Nov, 04:002,575 MW3,123 MW
12 Nov, 05:002,637 MW3,187 MW
12 Nov, 06:002,766 MW3,307 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (695 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SWPW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/spp-west/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SWPW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/spp-west/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_spp_west_2026,
  title = {{SWPW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/spp-west/}
}

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