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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PNM was off by 7.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 46% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 478 MW (52.7%) too high at 10 Nov 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PNM was off by 7.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 46% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 478 MW (52.7%) too high at 10 Nov 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PNM came 38 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 106 MW, against average demand of 1,490 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 21% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

695 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error7.7%
Bias-0.0%
Hours within 5%46%
Worst miss478 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-13 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 478 MW (52.7%) too high at 10 Nov 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 1,385 MW, reported 907 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
PNM day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PNM over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 5 Nov, 06:006 Nov, 06:007 Nov, 06:008 Nov, 06:009 Nov, 06:0010 Nov, 06:0011 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PNM over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 06:001,403 MW1,617 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,348 MW1,614 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,281 MW1,530 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,213 MW1,452 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,165 MW1,397 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,140 MW1,370 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,130 MW1,364 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,150 MW1,387 MW
5 Nov, 14:001,186 MW1,433 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,263 MW1,510 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,376 MW1,610 MW
5 Nov, 17:001,452 MW1,701 MW
5 Nov, 18:001,459 MW1,724 MW
5 Nov, 19:001,440 MW1,718 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,417 MW1,699 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,374 MW1,645 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,314 MW1,583 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,256 MW1,521 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,223 MW1,438 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,203 MW1,409 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,193 MW1,409 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,199 MW1,417 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,242 MW1,440 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,321 MW1,523 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,396 MW1,612 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,355 MW1,596 MW
6 Nov, 08:001,301 MW1,515 MW
6 Nov, 09:001,237 MW1,446 MW
6 Nov, 10:001,227 MW1,404 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,229 MW1,399 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,254 MW1,421 MW
6 Nov, 13:001,320 MW1,459 MW
6 Nov, 14:001,377 MW1,482 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,405 MW1,509 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,437 MW1,560 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,495 MW1,630 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,481 MW1,639 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,463 MW1,633 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,444 MW1,626 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,396 MW1,588 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,350 MW1,546 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,290 MW1,498 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,260 MW1,476 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,227 MW1,439 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,223 MW1,442 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,224 MW1,423 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,236 MW1,444 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,262 MW1,479 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,311 MW1,530 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,310 MW1,502 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,313 MW1,473 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,300 MW1,452 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,246 MW1,448 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,179 MW1,464 MW
7 Nov, 12:001,118 MW1,423 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,112 MW1,354 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,158 MW1,385 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,233 MW1,440 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,339 MW1,531 MW
7 Nov, 17:001,432 MW1,638 MW
7 Nov, 18:001,442 MW1,673 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,420 MW1,673 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,404 MW1,638 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,378 MW1,589 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,337 MW1,552 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,306 MW1,505 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,261 MW1,469 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,228 MW1,450 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,211 MW1,440 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,206 MW1,432 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,231 MW1,440 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,262 MW1,483 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,308 MW1,528 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,243 MW1,475 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,188 MW1,390 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,132 MW1,323 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,080 MW1,294 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,072 MW1,288 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,072 MW1,284 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,093 MW1,294 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,142 MW1,346 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,228 MW1,423 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,372 MW1,539 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,483 MW1,648 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,481 MW1,713 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,468 MW1,698 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,433 MW1,662 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,392 MW1,612 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,332 MW1,554 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,283 MW1,493 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,229 MW1,447 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,207 MW1,421 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,202 MW1,412 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,206 MW1,419 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,247 MW1,454 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,328 MW1,532 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,426 MW1,623 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,365 MW1,612 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,305 MW1,535 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,237 MW1,468 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,186 MW1,410 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,151 MW1,371 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,105 MW1,354 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,145 MW1,368 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,207 MW1,411 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,242 MW1,483 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,319 MW1,578 MW
9 Nov, 17:001,501 MW1,670 MW
9 Nov, 18:001,492 MW1,693 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,484 MW1,690 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,456 MW1,675 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,411 MW1,621 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,353 MW1,559 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,303 MW1,499 MW
10 Nov, 00:00998 MW1,464 MW
10 Nov, 01:00983 MW1,438 MW
10 Nov, 02:00972 MW1,427 MW
10 Nov, 03:00973 MW1,431 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,015 MW1,463 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,091 MW1,537 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,187 MW1,628 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,139 MW1,608 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,065 MW1,521 MW
10 Nov, 09:00991 MW1,445 MW
10 Nov, 10:00931 MW1,393 MW
10 Nov, 11:00895 MW1,366 MW
10 Nov, 12:00887 MW1,361 MW
10 Nov, 13:00907 MW1,385 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,475 MW1,438 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,548 MW1,520 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,645 MW1,617 MW
10 Nov, 17:001,737 MW1,709 MW
10 Nov, 18:001,750 MW1,728 MW
10 Nov, 19:001,723 MW1,718 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,696 MW1,700 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,646 MW1,643 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,593 MW1,575 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,538 MW1,513 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,480 MWn/a
11 Nov, 01:001,467 MWn/a
11 Nov, 02:001,460 MWn/a
11 Nov, 03:001,472 MWn/a
11 Nov, 04:001,510 MWn/a
11 Nov, 05:001,594 MWn/a
11 Nov, 06:001,687 MWn/a
11 Nov, 07:001,654 MWn/a
11 Nov, 08:001,568 MWn/a
11 Nov, 09:001,491 MWn/a
11 Nov, 10:001,438 MWn/a
11 Nov, 11:001,409 MWn/a
11 Nov, 12:001,403 MWn/a
11 Nov, 13:001,427 MWn/a
11 Nov, 14:001,462 MWn/a
11 Nov, 15:001,543 MWn/a
11 Nov, 16:001,660 MWn/a
11 Nov, 17:001,739 MWn/a
11 Nov, 18:001,740 MWn/a
11 Nov, 19:001,722 MWn/a
11 Nov, 20:001,711 MWn/a
11 Nov, 21:001,669 MWn/a
11 Nov, 22:001,611 MWn/a
11 Nov, 23:001,561 MWn/a
12 Nov, 00:001,513 MW1,440 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,507 MW1,429 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,499 MW1,421 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,502 MW1,421 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,539 MW1,449 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,612 MW1,522 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (695 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pnm/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pnm/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pnm_2026,
  title = {{PNM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pnm/}
}

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