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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

PSEI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PSEI was off by 45.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -45.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,246 MW (71.2%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 09:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PSEI was off by 45.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -45.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 2,246 MW (71.2%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 09:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PSEI came 52 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,271 MW, against average demand of 2,774 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error45.6%
Bias-45.6%
Hours within 5%0%
Worst miss2,246 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,271 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 2,246 MW (71.2%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 09:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 909 MW, reported 3,155 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
PSEI day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSEI over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 05:006 Nov, 05:007 Nov, 05:008 Nov, 05:009 Nov, 05:0010 Nov, 05:0011 Nov, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PSEI over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 05:002,605 MW1,365 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,951 MW1,588 MW
5 Nov, 07:003,142 MW1,769 MW
5 Nov, 08:003,135 MW1,648 MW
5 Nov, 09:003,058 MW1,504 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,988 MW1,620 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,935 MW1,501 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,913 MW1,609 MW
5 Nov, 13:002,893 MW1,347 MW
5 Nov, 14:002,893 MW1,233 MW
5 Nov, 15:002,926 MW1,170 MW
5 Nov, 16:003,079 MW1,374 MW
5 Nov, 17:003,257 MW1,430 MW
5 Nov, 18:003,242 MW1,450 MW
5 Nov, 19:003,165 MW1,490 MW
5 Nov, 20:003,073 MW1,560 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,907 MW1,603 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,696 MW1,352 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,525 MW1,329 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,377 MW1,654 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,281 MW1,704 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,223 MW1,597 MW
6 Nov, 03:002,233 MW1,394 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,332 MW1,375 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,552 MW1,427 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,871 MW1,565 MW
6 Nov, 07:003,071 MW1,597 MW
6 Nov, 08:003,141 MW1,689 MW
6 Nov, 09:003,149 MW1,483 MW
6 Nov, 10:003,134 MW1,535 MW
6 Nov, 11:003,102 MW1,546 MW
6 Nov, 12:003,073 MW1,587 MW
6 Nov, 13:003,053 MW1,581 MW
6 Nov, 14:003,068 MW1,172 MW
6 Nov, 15:003,109 MW1,559 MW
6 Nov, 16:003,184 MW1,612 MW
6 Nov, 17:003,255 MW1,669 MW
6 Nov, 18:003,163 MW1,705 MW
6 Nov, 19:003,049 MW1,791 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,946 MW1,800 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,800 MW1,972 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,636 MW2,055 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,476 MW1,821 MW
7 Nov, 00:002,341 MW1,936 MW
7 Nov, 01:002,249 MW1,963 MW
7 Nov, 02:002,182 MW1,924 MW
7 Nov, 03:002,160 MW1,613 MW
7 Nov, 04:002,196 MW1,562 MW
7 Nov, 05:002,312 MW1,606 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,467 MW1,724 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,657 MW1,766 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,772 MW1,735 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,846 MW1,647 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,841 MW1,655 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,829 MW1,900 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,771 MW1,738 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,724 MW1,578 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,696 MW1,532 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,738 MW1,487 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,869 MW1,382 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,988 MW1,568 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,926 MW1,560 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,848 MW1,616 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,756 MW1,724 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,634 MW1,646 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,485 MW1,896 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,342 MW1,513 MW
8 Nov, 00:002,237 MW1,857 MW
8 Nov, 01:002,146 MW1,703 MW
8 Nov, 02:002,085 MW1,707 MW
8 Nov, 03:002,064 MW1,507 MW
8 Nov, 04:002,081 MW1,352 MW
8 Nov, 05:002,170 MW1,470 MW
8 Nov, 06:002,312 MW1,464 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,472 MW1,606 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,636 MW1,668 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,696 MW1,646 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,725 MW1,562 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,733 MW1,476 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,738 MW1,444 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,720 MW1,398 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,712 MW1,452 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,762 MW1,458 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,945 MW1,797 MW
8 Nov, 17:003,165 MW2,050 MW
8 Nov, 18:003,168 MW1,993 MW
8 Nov, 19:003,133 MW1,936 MW
8 Nov, 20:003,031 MW2,203 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,890 MW2,277 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,681 MW1,989 MW
8 Nov, 23:002,501 MW1,789 MW
9 Nov, 00:002,390 MW1,927 MW
9 Nov, 01:002,298 MW2,027 MW
9 Nov, 02:002,268 MW1,795 MW
9 Nov, 03:002,292 MW1,556 MW
9 Nov, 04:002,413 MW1,557 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,687 MW1,667 MW
9 Nov, 06:003,028 MW1,674 MW
9 Nov, 07:003,244 MW1,840 MW
9 Nov, 08:003,254 MW1,755 MW
9 Nov, 09:003,173 MW1,737 MW
9 Nov, 10:003,108 MW1,614 MW
9 Nov, 11:003,123 MW1,578 MW
9 Nov, 12:003,127 MW1,637 MW
9 Nov, 13:003,101 MW1,625 MW
9 Nov, 14:003,110 MW1,662 MW
9 Nov, 15:003,172 MW1,708 MW
9 Nov, 16:003,331 MW1,879 MW
9 Nov, 17:003,456 MW2,061 MW
9 Nov, 18:003,394 MW2,013 MW
9 Nov, 19:003,297 MW1,995 MW
9 Nov, 20:003,149 MW1,748 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,944 MW1,700 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,706 MW1,673 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,504 MW1,520 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,372 MW1,734 MW
10 Nov, 01:002,274 MW1,835 MW
10 Nov, 02:002,220 MW1,693 MW
10 Nov, 03:002,224 MW1,743 MW
10 Nov, 04:002,316 MW1,713 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,564 MW1,798 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,884 MW1,912 MW
10 Nov, 07:003,096 MW1,978 MW
10 Nov, 08:003,118 MW1,855 MW
10 Nov, 09:003,107 MW1,975 MW
10 Nov, 10:003,097 MW1,931 MW
10 Nov, 11:003,101 MW1,889 MW
10 Nov, 12:003,093 MW1,778 MW
10 Nov, 13:003,079 MW1,871 MW
10 Nov, 14:003,077 MW1,888 MW
10 Nov, 15:003,108 MW1,910 MW
10 Nov, 16:003,218 MW2,019 MW
10 Nov, 17:003,319 MW2,095 MW
10 Nov, 18:003,245 MW2,004 MW
10 Nov, 19:003,143 MW1,990 MW
10 Nov, 20:003,024 MW1,967 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,861 MW1,912 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,647 MW1,847 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,465 MW1,842 MW
11 Nov, 00:002,316 MW1,905 MW
11 Nov, 01:002,212 MW1,921 MW
11 Nov, 02:002,153 MW1,886 MW
11 Nov, 03:002,153 MW1,917 MW
11 Nov, 04:002,222 MW1,807 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,402 MW1,746 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,645 MW1,704 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,813 MW1,870 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,902 MW1,959 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,928 MW1,951 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,878 MW1,846 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,856 MW1,794 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,841 MW1,713 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,804 MW1,606 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,799 MW1,586 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,829 MW1,556 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,961 MW1,554 MW
11 Nov, 17:003,110 MW1,809 MW
11 Nov, 18:003,066 MW1,925 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,996 MW1,973 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,906 MW1,992 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,745 MW1,901 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,556 MW1,747 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,372 MW1,781 MW
12 Nov, 00:002,231 MW1,999 MW
12 Nov, 01:002,133 MW1,891 MW
12 Nov, 02:002,078 MW1,817 MW
12 Nov, 03:002,088 MW1,801 MW
12 Nov, 04:002,179 MW1,934 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PSEI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psei/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PSEI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psei/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_psei_2026,
  title = {{PSEI Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/psei/}
}

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