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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

SC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SC was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 71% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 410 MW (11.7%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 20:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SC was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 71% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 410 MW (11.7%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 20:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SC came 28 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 112 MW, against average demand of 2,882 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 75% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error4.0%
Bias+3.0%
Hours within 5%71%
Worst miss410 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+83 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 410 MW (11.7%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 20:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 3,913 MW, reported 3,503 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
SC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 08:006 Nov, 08:007 Nov, 08:008 Nov, 08:009 Nov, 08:0010 Nov, 08:0011 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SC over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 08:002,943 MW2,814 MW
5 Nov, 09:003,059 MW2,917 MW
5 Nov, 10:003,209 MW3,052 MW
5 Nov, 11:003,248 MW3,150 MW
5 Nov, 12:003,423 MW3,259 MW
5 Nov, 13:003,458 MW3,317 MW
5 Nov, 14:003,476 MW3,360 MW
5 Nov, 15:003,391 MW3,370 MW
5 Nov, 16:003,448 MW3,363 MW
5 Nov, 17:003,428 MW3,373 MW
5 Nov, 18:003,510 MW3,429 MW
5 Nov, 19:003,375 MW3,415 MW
5 Nov, 20:003,212 MW3,308 MW
5 Nov, 21:003,161 MW3,217 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,997 MW3,098 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,802 MW2,917 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,694 MW2,747 MW
6 Nov, 01:002,660 MW2,595 MW
6 Nov, 02:002,563 MW2,548 MW
6 Nov, 03:002,576 MW2,498 MW
6 Nov, 04:002,568 MW2,524 MW
6 Nov, 05:002,666 MW2,607 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,777 MW2,756 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,899 MW2,854 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,941 MW2,907 MW
6 Nov, 09:003,099 MW3,000 MW
6 Nov, 10:003,231 MW3,130 MW
6 Nov, 11:003,239 MW3,183 MW
6 Nov, 12:003,293 MW3,292 MW
6 Nov, 13:003,363 MW3,333 MW
6 Nov, 14:003,372 MW3,324 MW
6 Nov, 15:003,356 MW3,303 MW
6 Nov, 16:003,280 MW3,302 MW
6 Nov, 17:003,223 MW3,312 MW
6 Nov, 18:003,220 MW3,348 MW
6 Nov, 19:003,204 MW3,333 MW
6 Nov, 20:003,098 MW3,251 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,997 MW3,143 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,880 MW3,025 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,760 MW2,877 MW
7 Nov, 00:002,621 MW2,640 MW
7 Nov, 01:002,483 MW2,515 MW
7 Nov, 02:002,455 MW2,426 MW
7 Nov, 03:002,446 MW2,326 MW
7 Nov, 04:002,434 MW2,339 MW
7 Nov, 05:002,473 MW2,357 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,528 MW2,440 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,605 MW2,570 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,745 MW2,712 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,835 MW2,784 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,874 MW2,802 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,865 MW2,796 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,934 MW2,837 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,927 MW2,888 MW
7 Nov, 14:002,978 MW2,879 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,979 MW2,826 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,940 MW2,833 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,990 MW2,874 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,967 MW2,962 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,878 MW2,955 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,719 MW2,896 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,703 MW2,828 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,654 MW2,810 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,630 MW2,730 MW
8 Nov, 00:002,482 MW2,521 MW
8 Nov, 01:002,509 MW2,487 MW
8 Nov, 02:002,476 MW2,423 MW
8 Nov, 03:002,469 MW2,434 MW
8 Nov, 04:002,454 MW2,481 MW
8 Nov, 05:002,531 MW2,586 MW
8 Nov, 06:002,622 MW2,680 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,770 MW2,845 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,825 MW2,978 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,808 MW3,014 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,838 MW2,971 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,814 MW2,896 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,836 MW2,868 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,844 MW2,879 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,877 MW2,880 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,887 MW2,856 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,847 MW2,866 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,836 MW2,954 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,952 MW3,077 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,883 MW3,076 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,851 MW3,007 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,827 MW2,948 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,742 MW2,864 MW
8 Nov, 23:002,628 MW2,726 MW
9 Nov, 00:002,601 MW2,678 MW
9 Nov, 01:002,532 MW2,616 MW
9 Nov, 02:002,566 MW2,581 MW
9 Nov, 03:002,526 MW2,618 MW
9 Nov, 04:002,630 MW2,674 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,752 MW2,794 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,977 MW3,015 MW
9 Nov, 07:003,016 MW3,120 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,996 MW3,119 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,956 MW3,097 MW
9 Nov, 10:002,923 MW3,001 MW
9 Nov, 11:002,899 MW2,928 MW
9 Nov, 12:002,888 MW2,924 MW
9 Nov, 13:002,893 MW2,951 MW
9 Nov, 14:002,956 MW2,947 MW
9 Nov, 15:002,954 MW2,950 MW
9 Nov, 16:003,026 MW2,976 MW
9 Nov, 17:003,060 MW3,066 MW
9 Nov, 18:003,121 MW3,200 MW
9 Nov, 19:003,048 MW3,199 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,940 MW3,102 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,826 MW3,020 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,787 MW2,911 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,685 MW2,742 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,658 MW2,689 MW
10 Nov, 01:002,577 MW2,643 MW
10 Nov, 02:002,594 MW2,620 MW
10 Nov, 03:002,627 MW2,683 MW
10 Nov, 04:002,721 MW2,779 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,810 MW2,928 MW
10 Nov, 06:003,025 MW3,138 MW
10 Nov, 07:003,106 MW3,219 MW
10 Nov, 08:003,058 MW3,198 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,981 MW3,064 MW
10 Nov, 10:002,908 MW2,946 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,892 MW2,871 MW
10 Nov, 12:002,854 MW2,873 MW
10 Nov, 13:002,838 MW2,910 MW
10 Nov, 14:002,919 MW2,928 MW
10 Nov, 15:002,927 MW2,940 MW
10 Nov, 16:002,956 MW2,947 MW
10 Nov, 17:003,059 MW3,038 MW
10 Nov, 18:003,101 MW3,132 MW
10 Nov, 19:003,089 MW3,129 MW
10 Nov, 20:003,039 MW3,090 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,905 MW3,024 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,745 MW2,930 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,594 MW2,750 MW
11 Nov, 00:002,530 MW2,695 MW
11 Nov, 01:002,549 MW2,629 MW
11 Nov, 02:002,562 MW2,604 MW
11 Nov, 03:002,491 MW2,627 MW
11 Nov, 04:002,512 MW2,697 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,727 MW2,818 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,930 MW3,038 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,972 MW3,057 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,949 MW3,029 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,976 MW2,950 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,883 MW2,937 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,894 MW2,907 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,887 MW2,933 MW
11 Nov, 13:002,952 MW2,964 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,930 MW2,979 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,957 MW3,011 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,948 MW3,017 MW
11 Nov, 17:003,090 MW3,108 MW
11 Nov, 18:003,154 MW3,161 MW
11 Nov, 19:003,097 MW3,134 MW
11 Nov, 20:003,025 MW3,079 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,930 MW3,016 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,774 MW2,945 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,696 MW2,785 MW
12 Nov, 00:002,627 MW2,652 MW
12 Nov, 01:002,570 MW2,552 MW
12 Nov, 02:002,467 MW2,502 MW
12 Nov, 03:002,426 MW2,511 MW
12 Nov, 04:002,464 MW2,546 MW
12 Nov, 05:002,592 MW2,642 MW
12 Nov, 06:002,735 MW2,795 MW
12 Nov, 07:002,889 MW2,877 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sc/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_sc_2026,
  title = {{SC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/sc/}
}

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