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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for LDWP was off by 10.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 524 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 17% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -5.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 819 MW (22.2%) too low at 15 Oct 2026, 12:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

This grid has 524 compared hours out of the 720 in its 30 day window, because the forecast or the demand reading is missing for the rest. Treat the figures as a shorter sample.

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for LDWP was off by 10.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 524 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 17% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -5.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 819 MW (22.2%) too low at 15 Oct 2026, 12:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, LDWP came 43 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 283 MW, against average demand of 2,794 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 24% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

524 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error10.0%
Bias-5.4%
Hours within 5%17%
Worst miss819 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-170 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 819 MW (22.2%) too low at 15 Oct 2026, 12:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 2,870 MW, reported 3,689 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 02:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
LDWP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LDWP over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 02:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5 Nov, 03:006 Nov, 03:007 Nov, 03:008 Nov, 03:009 Nov, 03:0010 Nov, 03:0011 Nov, 03:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LDWP over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 02:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 03:001,836 MW2,003 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,874 MW2,016 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,996 MW2,113 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,187 MW2,264 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,510 MW2,371 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,801 MW2,459 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,827 MW2,529 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,885 MW2,588 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,918 MW2,630 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,943 MW2,704 MW
5 Nov, 13:003,053 MW2,845 MW
5 Nov, 14:002,945 MW2,966 MW
5 Nov, 15:002,767 MW3,047 MW
5 Nov, 16:002,771 MW3,067 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,826 MW3,060 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,760 MW2,999 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,692 MW2,926 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,635 MW2,850 MW
5 Nov, 21:002,533 MW2,737 MW
5 Nov, 22:002,337 MW2,554 MW
5 Nov, 23:002,167 MW2,418 MW
6 Nov, 00:002,023 MW2,251 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,897 MW2,127 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,794 MW2,045 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,735 MW2,004 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,757 MW1,980 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,877 MW2,003 MW
6 Nov, 06:002,039 MW2,020 MW
6 Nov, 07:002,398 MW2,068 MW
6 Nov, 08:002,735 MW2,148 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,822 MW2,222 MW
6 Nov, 10:002,882 MW2,313 MW
6 Nov, 11:002,939 MW2,382 MW
6 Nov, 12:002,988 MW2,484 MW
6 Nov, 13:002,854 MW2,604 MW
6 Nov, 14:002,766 MW2,737 MW
6 Nov, 15:002,813 MW2,826 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,794 MW2,866 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,793 MW2,882 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,694 MW2,822 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,573 MW2,748 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,732 MW2,673 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,641 MW2,590 MW
6 Nov, 22:002,265 MW2,463 MW
6 Nov, 23:002,086 MW2,367 MW
7 Nov, 00:002,268 MW2,229 MW
7 Nov, 01:002,156 MW2,108 MW
7 Nov, 02:002,053 MW2,024 MW
7 Nov, 03:002,047 MW1,976 MW
7 Nov, 04:002,037 MW1,951 MW
7 Nov, 05:002,046 MW1,939 MW
7 Nov, 06:002,060 MW1,944 MW
7 Nov, 07:002,135 MW1,976 MW
7 Nov, 08:002,446 MW2,041 MW
7 Nov, 09:002,520 MW2,141 MW
7 Nov, 10:002,570 MW2,244 MW
7 Nov, 11:002,664 MW2,381 MW
7 Nov, 12:002,796 MW2,510 MW
7 Nov, 13:002,925 MW2,665 MW
7 Nov, 14:003,053 MW2,825 MW
7 Nov, 15:002,686 MW2,929 MW
7 Nov, 16:002,694 MW2,967 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,719 MW2,999 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,648 MW2,963 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,538 MW2,914 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,431 MW2,842 MW
7 Nov, 21:002,315 MW2,735 MW
7 Nov, 22:002,208 MW2,552 MW
7 Nov, 23:002,085 MW2,423 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,971 MW2,269 MW
8 Nov, 01:002,091 MW2,147 MW
8 Nov, 02:002,032 MW2,062 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,964 MW2,029 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,949 MW2,048 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,977 MW2,151 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,975 MW2,295 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,006 MW2,450 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,287 MW2,567 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,389 MW2,665 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,450 MW2,768 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,570 MW2,919 MW
8 Nov, 12:002,736 MW3,052 MW
8 Nov, 13:002,722 MW3,224 MW
8 Nov, 14:002,910 MW3,384 MW
8 Nov, 15:002,790 MW3,500 MW
8 Nov, 16:002,806 MW3,454 MW
8 Nov, 17:002,816 MW3,337 MW
8 Nov, 18:002,762 MW3,232 MW
8 Nov, 19:002,685 MW3,145 MW
8 Nov, 20:002,582 MW3,038 MW
8 Nov, 21:002,465 MW2,904 MW
8 Nov, 22:002,338 MW2,666 MW
8 Nov, 23:002,439 MW2,483 MW
9 Nov, 00:002,303 MW2,279 MW
9 Nov, 01:002,207 MW2,151 MW
9 Nov, 02:002,160 MW2,067 MW
9 Nov, 03:002,153 MW2,034 MW
9 Nov, 04:002,174 MW2,056 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,280 MW2,155 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,397 MW2,301 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,525 MW2,453 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,830 MW2,574 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,922 MW2,681 MW
9 Nov, 10:003,021 MW2,795 MW
9 Nov, 11:003,131 MW2,959 MW
9 Nov, 12:003,349 MW3,090 MW
9 Nov, 13:003,263 MW3,257 MW
9 Nov, 14:003,138 MW3,428 MW
9 Nov, 15:003,138 MW3,530 MW
9 Nov, 16:003,096 MW3,485 MW
9 Nov, 17:003,119 MW3,385 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,966 MW3,267 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,835 MW3,186 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,776 MW3,077 MW
9 Nov, 21:002,645 MW2,940 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,495 MW2,698 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,305 MW2,496 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,144 MW2,313 MW
10 Nov, 01:002,028 MW2,184 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,939 MW2,086 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,935 MW2,047 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,957 MW2,058 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,066 MW2,160 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,155 MW2,303 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,228 MW2,422 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,575 MW2,531 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,682 MW2,648 MW
10 Nov, 10:002,800 MW2,727 MW
10 Nov, 11:002,865 MW2,858 MW
10 Nov, 12:003,012 MW2,984 MW
10 Nov, 13:003,175 MW3,150 MW
10 Nov, 14:003,158 MW3,327 MW
10 Nov, 15:003,230 MW3,414 MW
10 Nov, 16:003,154 MW3,395 MW
10 Nov, 17:003,071 MW3,300 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,912 MW3,190 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,760 MW3,107 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,683 MW3,003 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,556 MW2,859 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,436 MW2,637 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,235 MW2,457 MW
11 Nov, 00:002,024 MW2,204 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,936 MW2,086 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,825 MW2,002 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,777 MW1,968 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,810 MW1,971 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,943 MW2,068 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,048 MW2,214 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,122 MW2,346 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,439 MW2,431 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,718 MW2,551 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,826 MW2,641 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,962 MW2,752 MW
11 Nov, 12:003,085 MW2,850 MW
11 Nov, 13:003,019 MW3,016 MW
11 Nov, 14:002,955 MW3,185 MW
11 Nov, 15:002,983 MW3,274 MW
11 Nov, 16:002,971 MW3,257 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,903 MW3,160 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,767 MW3,068 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,633 MW2,980 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,590 MW2,883 MW
11 Nov, 21:002,413 MW2,751 MW
11 Nov, 22:002,326 MW2,570 MW
11 Nov, 23:002,130 MW2,403 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,988 MW2,253 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,835 MW2,127 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,743 MW2,041 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (524 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ldwp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ldwp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ldwp_2026,
  title = {{LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ldwp/}
}

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