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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North (SE1) was off by 10.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 31% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 440 MW (26.3%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North (SE1) was off by 10.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 31% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 440 MW (26.3%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden North (SE1) came 43 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 122 MW, against average demand of 1,218 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 49% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error10.2%
Bias+0.7%
Hours within 5%31%
Worst miss440 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-10 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 440 MW (26.3%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,235 MW, reported 1,676 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden North (SE1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North (SE1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North (SE1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:00904 MW1,265 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,009 MW1,281 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,078 MW1,276 MW
5 Nov, 17:001,312 MW1,277 MW
5 Nov, 18:001,116 MW1,264 MW
5 Nov, 19:001,076 MW1,263 MW
5 Nov, 20:001,023 MW1,252 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,091 MW1,244 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,245 MW1,226 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,425 MW1,203 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,404 MW1,183 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,063 MW1,184 MW
6 Nov, 02:00981 MW1,183 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,041 MW1,191 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,106 MW1,216 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,041 MW1,250 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,087 MW1,287 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,294 MW1,298 MW
6 Nov, 08:001,521 MW1,317 MW
6 Nov, 09:001,566 MW1,311 MW
6 Nov, 10:001,611 MW1,303 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,491 MW1,292 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,241 MW1,281 MW
6 Nov, 13:001,252 MW1,280 MW
6 Nov, 14:001,155 MW1,282 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,166 MW1,304 MW
6 Nov, 16:001,174 MW1,321 MW
6 Nov, 17:001,133 MW1,315 MW
6 Nov, 18:001,101 MW1,300 MW
6 Nov, 19:001,009 MW1,290 MW
6 Nov, 20:001,004 MW1,269 MW
6 Nov, 21:001,099 MW1,248 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,070 MW1,221 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,111 MW1,201 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,184 MW1,182 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,053 MW1,182 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,024 MW1,172 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,113 MW1,172 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,073 MW1,191 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,066 MW1,200 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,052 MW1,213 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,086 MW1,213 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,134 MW1,230 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,291 MW1,231 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,186 MW1,228 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,175 MW1,224 MW
7 Nov, 12:001,108 MW1,223 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,176 MW1,225 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,341 MW1,229 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,360 MW1,254 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,274 MW1,275 MW
7 Nov, 17:001,306 MW1,277 MW
7 Nov, 18:001,173 MW1,268 MW
7 Nov, 19:001,109 MW1,256 MW
7 Nov, 20:001,134 MW1,242 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,131 MW1,227 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,119 MW1,205 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,010 MW1,179 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,015 MW1,161 MW
8 Nov, 01:00954 MW1,161 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,189 MW1,153 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,338 MW1,149 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,251 MW1,165 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,044 MW1,167 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,063 MW1,178 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,125 MW1,180 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,189 MW1,210 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,095 MW1,220 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,110 MW1,221 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,191 MW1,221 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,095 MW1,216 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,077 MW1,216 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,097 MW1,224 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,177 MW1,253 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,164 MW1,274 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,056 MW1,277 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,047 MW1,271 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,055 MW1,266 MW
8 Nov, 20:00948 MW1,256 MW
8 Nov, 21:00880 MW1,237 MW
8 Nov, 22:00905 MW1,221 MW
8 Nov, 23:00868 MW1,195 MW
9 Nov, 00:00927 MW1,175 MW
9 Nov, 01:00995 MW1,161 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,061 MW1,155 MW
9 Nov, 03:00974 MW1,156 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,020 MW1,175 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,052 MW1,219 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,151 MW1,265 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,165 MW1,286 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,244 MW1,301 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,409 MW1,291 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,349 MW1,289 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,183 MW1,290 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,084 MW1,289 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,152 MW1,286 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,216 MW1,282 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,280 MW1,310 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,342 MW1,320 MW
9 Nov, 17:001,493 MW1,327 MW
9 Nov, 18:001,442 MW1,316 MW
9 Nov, 19:001,401 MW1,303 MW
9 Nov, 20:001,356 MW1,284 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,431 MW1,256 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,303 MW1,236 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,205 MW1,217 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,281 MW1,187 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,119 MW1,184 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,249 MW1,182 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,317 MW1,183 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,253 MW1,198 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,202 MW1,231 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,333 MW1,287 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,488 MW1,309 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,315 MW1,328 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,455 MW1,328 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,287 MW1,323 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,220 MW1,326 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,275 MW1,336 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,179 MW1,339 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,151 MW1,350 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,167 MW1,380 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,227 MW1,408 MW
10 Nov, 17:001,258 MW1,410 MW
10 Nov, 18:001,244 MW1,398 MW
10 Nov, 19:001,249 MW1,385 MW
10 Nov, 20:001,312 MW1,368 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,320 MW1,345 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,252 MW1,309 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,216 MW1,289 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,230 MW1,270 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,152 MW1,260 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,295 MW1,260 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,331 MW1,268 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,318 MW1,299 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,371 MW1,338 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,382 MW1,388 MW
11 Nov, 07:001,384 MW1,411 MW
11 Nov, 08:001,370 MW1,431 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,386 MW1,428 MW
11 Nov, 10:001,389 MW1,417 MW
11 Nov, 11:001,413 MW1,405 MW
11 Nov, 12:001,351 MW1,405 MW
11 Nov, 13:001,369 MW1,415 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,367 MW1,419 MW
11 Nov, 15:001,453 MW1,429 MW
11 Nov, 16:001,321 MW1,445 MW
11 Nov, 17:001,426 MW1,449 MW
11 Nov, 18:001,476 MW1,428 MW
11 Nov, 19:001,413 MW1,414 MW
11 Nov, 20:001,319 MW1,395 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,259 MW1,378 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,220 MW1,351 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,179 MW1,330 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,183 MW1,321 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,189 MW1,319 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,263 MW1,313 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,306 MW1,315 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,301 MW1,333 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,330 MW1,368 MW
12 Nov, 06:001,435 MW1,423 MW
12 Nov, 07:001,405 MW1,447 MW
12 Nov, 08:001,384 MW1,462 MW
12 Nov, 09:001,488 MW1,457 MW
12 Nov, 10:001,497 MW1,453 MW
12 Nov, 11:001,452 MW1,443 MW
12 Nov, 12:001,319 MW1,446 MW
12 Nov, 13:001,027 MW1,439 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se1_2026,
  title = {{Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/

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