TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for TAL was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 68% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 51 MW (13.6%) too low at 31 Oct 2026, 13:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for TAL was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 68% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 51 MW (13.6%) too low at 31 Oct 2026, 13:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
- Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TAL came 29 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 12 MW, against average demand of 294 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 30% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026Average error4.0%
Bias-1.8%
Hours within 5%68%
Worst miss51 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-7 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 51 MW (13.6%) too low at 31 Oct 2026, 13:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 324 MW, reported 375 MW.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 07:00 EST (UTC-05:00)Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 08:00 | 336 MW | 313 MW |
| 5 Nov, 09:00 | 348 MW | 324 MW |
| 5 Nov, 10:00 | 364 MW | 336 MW |
| 5 Nov, 11:00 | 397 MW | 354 MW |
| 5 Nov, 12:00 | 418 MW | 371 MW |
| 5 Nov, 13:00 | 424 MW | 386 MW |
| 5 Nov, 14:00 | 432 MW | 398 MW |
| 5 Nov, 15:00 | 432 MW | 397 MW |
| 5 Nov, 16:00 | 425 MW | 393 MW |
| 5 Nov, 17:00 | 414 MW | 389 MW |
| 5 Nov, 18:00 | 416 MW | 385 MW |
| 5 Nov, 19:00 | 409 MW | 377 MW |
| 5 Nov, 20:00 | 391 MW | 361 MW |
| 5 Nov, 21:00 | 368 MW | 340 MW |
| 5 Nov, 22:00 | 346 MW | 315 MW |
| 5 Nov, 23:00 | 316 MW | 293 MW |
| 6 Nov, 00:00 | 288 MW | 278 MW |
| 6 Nov, 01:00 | 265 MW | 261 MW |
| 6 Nov, 02:00 | 252 MW | 249 MW |
| 6 Nov, 03:00 | 243 MW | 241 MW |
| 6 Nov, 04:00 | 243 MW | 241 MW |
| 6 Nov, 05:00 | 254 MW | 269 MW |
| 6 Nov, 06:00 | 291 MW | 284 MW |
| 6 Nov, 07:00 | 311 MW | 293 MW |
| 6 Nov, 08:00 | 324 MW | 303 MW |
| 6 Nov, 09:00 | 336 MW | 317 MW |
| 6 Nov, 10:00 | 339 MW | 332 MW |
| 6 Nov, 11:00 | 360 MW | 348 MW |
| 6 Nov, 12:00 | 377 MW | 365 MW |
| 6 Nov, 13:00 | 383 MW | 383 MW |
| 6 Nov, 14:00 | 392 MW | 392 MW |
| 6 Nov, 15:00 | 385 MW | 390 MW |
| 6 Nov, 16:00 | 377 MW | 383 MW |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 | 364 MW | 374 MW |
| 6 Nov, 18:00 | 361 MW | 364 MW |
| 6 Nov, 19:00 | 352 MW | 350 MW |
| 6 Nov, 20:00 | 331 MW | 331 MW |
| 6 Nov, 21:00 | 314 MW | 314 MW |
| 6 Nov, 22:00 | 296 MW | 293 MW |
| 6 Nov, 23:00 | 274 MW | 269 MW |
| 7 Nov, 00:00 | 251 MW | 238 MW |
| 7 Nov, 01:00 | 231 MW | 222 MW |
| 7 Nov, 02:00 | 217 MW | 211 MW |
| 7 Nov, 03:00 | 206 MW | 203 MW |
| 7 Nov, 04:00 | 203 MW | 231 MW |
| 7 Nov, 05:00 | 204 MW | 245 MW |
| 7 Nov, 06:00 | 210 MW | 253 MW |
| 7 Nov, 07:00 | 217 MW | 249 MW |
| 7 Nov, 08:00 | 233 MW | 247 MW |
| 7 Nov, 09:00 | 248 MW | 260 MW |
| 7 Nov, 10:00 | 259 MW | 272 MW |
| 7 Nov, 11:00 | 271 MW | 282 MW |
| 7 Nov, 12:00 | 282 MW | 290 MW |
| 7 Nov, 13:00 | 292 MW | 298 MW |
| 7 Nov, 14:00 | 300 MW | 305 MW |
| 7 Nov, 15:00 | 304 MW | 309 MW |
| 7 Nov, 16:00 | 300 MW | 305 MW |
| 7 Nov, 17:00 | 294 MW | 297 MW |
| 7 Nov, 18:00 | 297 MW | 297 MW |
| 7 Nov, 19:00 | 288 MW | 297 MW |
| 7 Nov, 20:00 | 274 MW | 287 MW |
| 7 Nov, 21:00 | 262 MW | 273 MW |
| 7 Nov, 22:00 | 247 MW | 257 MW |
| 7 Nov, 23:00 | 233 MW | 240 MW |
| 8 Nov, 00:00 | 218 MW | 216 MW |
| 8 Nov, 01:00 | 207 MW | 205 MW |
| 8 Nov, 02:00 | 199 MW | 197 MW |
| 8 Nov, 03:00 | 195 MW | 193 MW |
| 8 Nov, 04:00 | 194 MW | 192 MW |
| 8 Nov, 05:00 | 197 MW | 208 MW |
| 8 Nov, 06:00 | 204 MW | 219 MW |
| 8 Nov, 07:00 | 216 MW | 226 MW |
| 8 Nov, 08:00 | 233 MW | 236 MW |
| 8 Nov, 09:00 | 244 MW | 250 MW |
| 8 Nov, 10:00 | 254 MW | 257 MW |
| 8 Nov, 11:00 | 265 MW | 263 MW |
| 8 Nov, 12:00 | 276 MW | 270 MW |
| 8 Nov, 13:00 | 287 MW | 276 MW |
| 8 Nov, 14:00 | 297 MW | 284 MW |
| 8 Nov, 15:00 | 304 MW | 290 MW |
| 8 Nov, 16:00 | 307 MW | 294 MW |
| 8 Nov, 17:00 | 311 MW | 297 MW |
| 8 Nov, 18:00 | 317 MW | 305 MW |
| 8 Nov, 19:00 | 307 MW | 307 MW |
| 8 Nov, 20:00 | 294 MW | 297 MW |
| 8 Nov, 21:00 | 277 MW | 282 MW |
| 8 Nov, 22:00 | 258 MW | 262 MW |
| 8 Nov, 23:00 | 237 MW | 242 MW |
| 9 Nov, 00:00 | 221 MW | 219 MW |
| 9 Nov, 01:00 | 208 MW | 206 MW |
| 9 Nov, 02:00 | 201 MW | 199 MW |
| 9 Nov, 03:00 | 198 MW | 196 MW |
| 9 Nov, 04:00 | 201 MW | 217 MW |
| 9 Nov, 05:00 | 213 MW | 250 MW |
| 9 Nov, 06:00 | 241 MW | 265 MW |
| 9 Nov, 07:00 | 290 MW | 273 MW |
| 9 Nov, 08:00 | 286 MW | 273 MW |
| 9 Nov, 09:00 | 291 MW | 276 MW |
| 9 Nov, 10:00 | 305 MW | 284 MW |
| 9 Nov, 11:00 | 304 MW | 294 MW |
| 9 Nov, 12:00 | 305 MW | 304 MW |
| 9 Nov, 13:00 | 322 MW | 311 MW |
| 9 Nov, 14:00 | 326 MW | 317 MW |
| 9 Nov, 15:00 | 341 MW | 323 MW |
| 9 Nov, 16:00 | 332 MW | 325 MW |
| 9 Nov, 17:00 | 328 MW | 323 MW |
| 9 Nov, 18:00 | 345 MW | 317 MW |
| 9 Nov, 19:00 | 333 MW | 309 MW |
| 9 Nov, 20:00 | 309 MW | 296 MW |
| 9 Nov, 21:00 | 296 MW | 279 MW |
| 9 Nov, 22:00 | 270 MW | 258 MW |
| 9 Nov, 23:00 | 253 MW | 238 MW |
| 10 Nov, 00:00 | 237 MW | 220 MW |
| 10 Nov, 01:00 | 242 MW | 208 MW |
| 10 Nov, 02:00 | 220 MW | 201 MW |
| 10 Nov, 03:00 | 201 MW | 198 MW |
| 10 Nov, 04:00 | 204 MW | 228 MW |
| 10 Nov, 05:00 | 216 MW | 246 MW |
| 10 Nov, 06:00 | 246 MW | 267 MW |
| 10 Nov, 07:00 | 272 MW | 271 MW |
| 10 Nov, 08:00 | 288 MW | 271 MW |
| 10 Nov, 09:00 | 302 MW | 276 MW |
| 10 Nov, 10:00 | 281 MW | 280 MW |
| 10 Nov, 11:00 | 299 MW | 285 MW |
| 10 Nov, 12:00 | 312 MW | 294 MW |
| 10 Nov, 13:00 | 309 MW | 305 MW |
| 10 Nov, 14:00 | 328 MW | 310 MW |
| 10 Nov, 15:00 | 326 MW | 313 MW |
| 10 Nov, 16:00 | 316 MW | 310 MW |
| 10 Nov, 17:00 | 344 MW | 307 MW |
| 10 Nov, 18:00 | 331 MW | 313 MW |
| 10 Nov, 19:00 | 338 MW | 315 MW |
| 10 Nov, 20:00 | 317 MW | 303 MW |
| 10 Nov, 21:00 | 288 MW | 287 MW |
| 10 Nov, 22:00 | 266 MW | 265 MW |
| 10 Nov, 23:00 | 249 MW | 241 MW |
| 11 Nov, 00:00 | 233 MW | 221 MW |
| 11 Nov, 01:00 | 220 MW | 210 MW |
| 11 Nov, 02:00 | 212 MW | 202 MW |
| 11 Nov, 03:00 | 200 MW | 198 MW |
| 11 Nov, 04:00 | 201 MW | 229 MW |
| 11 Nov, 05:00 | 208 MW | 243 MW |
| 11 Nov, 06:00 | 226 MW | 257 MW |
| 11 Nov, 07:00 | 237 MW | 265 MW |
| 11 Nov, 08:00 | 251 MW | 267 MW |
| 11 Nov, 09:00 | 260 MW | 272 MW |
| 11 Nov, 10:00 | 269 MW | 282 MW |
| 11 Nov, 11:00 | 279 MW | 294 MW |
| 11 Nov, 12:00 | 289 MW | 303 MW |
| 11 Nov, 13:00 | 290 MW | 307 MW |
| 11 Nov, 14:00 | 288 MW | 308 MW |
| 11 Nov, 15:00 | 287 MW | 304 MW |
| 11 Nov, 16:00 | 289 MW | 301 MW |
| 11 Nov, 17:00 | 296 MW | 306 MW |
| 11 Nov, 18:00 | 305 MW | 310 MW |
| 11 Nov, 19:00 | 299 MW | 307 MW |
| 11 Nov, 20:00 | 289 MW | 296 MW |
| 11 Nov, 21:00 | 275 MW | 281 MW |
| 11 Nov, 22:00 | 257 MW | 263 MW |
| 11 Nov, 23:00 | 237 MW | 244 MW |
| 12 Nov, 00:00 | 221 MW | 219 MW |
| 12 Nov, 01:00 | 209 MW | 207 MW |
| 12 Nov, 02:00 | 202 MW | 200 MW |
| 12 Nov, 03:00 | 199 MW | 197 MW |
| 12 Nov, 04:00 | 201 MW | 199 MW |
| 12 Nov, 05:00 | 214 MW | 222 MW |
| 12 Nov, 06:00 | 242 MW | 238 MW |
| 12 Nov, 07:00 | 290 MW | 248 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Related
Cite this page
APA 7
World Power Monitor. (2026). TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/
Plain text
World Power Monitor. TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/
BibTeX
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tal_2026,
title = {{TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
author = {{World Power Monitor}},
year = {2026},
note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/}
} Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/
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