Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Georgia was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 560 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 79% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 440 MW (26.2%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 05:00 (UTC+04:00). Dates and times are local (Asia/Tbilisi).

This grid has 560 compared hours out of the 689 in its 30 day window, because the forecast or the demand reading is missing for the rest. Treat the figures as a shorter sample.

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Georgia was off by 3.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 560 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 79% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 440 MW (26.2%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 05:00 (UTC+04:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Georgia came 22 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 55 MW, against average demand of 1,664 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 39% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

560 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026

Average error3.2%

Bias-0.6%

Hours within 5%79%

Worst miss440 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-12 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 440 MW (26.2%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 05:00 (UTC+04:00): forecast 1,240 MW, reported 1,680 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 16:00 (UTC+04:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Georgia over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 16:00 (UTC+04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-12

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 17:00	1,927 MW	1,860 MW
5 Nov, 18:00	1,992 MW	1,990 MW
5 Nov, 19:00	1,989 MW	2,015 MW
5 Nov, 20:00	1,912 MW	1,980 MW
5 Nov, 21:00	1,888 MW	1,915 MW
5 Nov, 22:00	1,810 MW	1,825 MW
5 Nov, 23:00	1,694 MW	1,700 MW
6 Nov, 00:00	1,577 MW	1,550 MW
6 Nov, 01:00	1,419 MW	1,440 MW
6 Nov, 02:00	1,426 MW	1,385 MW
6 Nov, 03:00	1,373 MW	1,370 MW
6 Nov, 04:00	1,374 MW	1,350 MW
6 Nov, 05:00	1,367 MW	1,360 MW
6 Nov, 06:00	1,381 MW	1,410 MW
6 Nov, 07:00	1,475 MW	1,445 MW
6 Nov, 08:00	1,632 MW	1,595 MW
6 Nov, 09:00	1,794 MW	1,730 MW
6 Nov, 10:00	1,867 MW	1,830 MW
6 Nov, 11:00	1,886 MW	1,880 MW
6 Nov, 12:00	1,847 MW	1,865 MW
6 Nov, 13:00	1,791 MW	1,850 MW
6 Nov, 14:00	1,792 MW	1,875 MW
6 Nov, 15:00	1,796 MW	1,890 MW
6 Nov, 16:00	1,836 MW	1,875 MW
6 Nov, 17:00	1,894 MW	1,895 MW
6 Nov, 18:00	2,025 MW	1,990 MW
6 Nov, 19:00	2,016 MW	2,000 MW
6 Nov, 20:00	2,003 MW	1,960 MW
6 Nov, 21:00	1,980 MW	1,910 MW
6 Nov, 22:00	1,925 MW	1,820 MW
6 Nov, 23:00	1,806 MW	1,690 MW
7 Nov, 00:00	1,662 MW	1,600 MW
7 Nov, 01:00	1,588 MW	1,515 MW
7 Nov, 02:00	1,500 MW	1,450 MW
7 Nov, 03:00	1,455 MW	1,390 MW
7 Nov, 04:00	1,417 MW	1,385 MW
7 Nov, 05:00	1,413 MW	1,400 MW
7 Nov, 06:00	1,449 MW	1,400 MW
7 Nov, 07:00	1,490 MW	1,480 MW
7 Nov, 08:00	1,586 MW	1,635 MW
7 Nov, 09:00	1,740 MW	1,810 MW
7 Nov, 10:00	1,886 MW	1,890 MW
7 Nov, 11:00	1,991 MW	1,905 MW
7 Nov, 12:00	2,042 MW	1,875 MW
7 Nov, 13:00	2,013 MW	1,850 MW
7 Nov, 14:00	2,026 MW	1,880 MW
7 Nov, 15:00	2,022 MW	1,920 MW
7 Nov, 16:00	2,049 MW	1,935 MW
7 Nov, 17:00	2,046 MW	1,950 MW
7 Nov, 18:00	2,151 MW	2,040 MW
7 Nov, 19:00	2,121 MW	2,030 MW
7 Nov, 20:00	2,080 MW	2,000 MW
7 Nov, 21:00	2,039 MW	1,940 MW
7 Nov, 22:00	1,956 MW	1,860 MW
7 Nov, 23:00	1,828 MW	1,745 MW
8 Nov, 00:00	1,687 MW	1,620 MW
8 Nov, 01:00	1,607 MW	1,525 MW
8 Nov, 02:00	1,551 MW	1,455 MW
8 Nov, 03:00	1,518 MW	1,390 MW
8 Nov, 04:00	1,494 MW	1,385 MW
8 Nov, 05:00	1,491 MW	1,385 MW
8 Nov, 06:00	1,513 MW	1,410 MW
8 Nov, 07:00	1,535 MW	1,440 MW
8 Nov, 08:00	1,605 MW	1,575 MW
8 Nov, 09:00	1,756 MW	1,700 MW
8 Nov, 10:00	1,872 MW	1,820 MW
8 Nov, 11:00	1,924 MW	1,860 MW
8 Nov, 12:00	1,939 MW	1,855 MW
8 Nov, 13:00	1,934 MW	1,850 MW
8 Nov, 14:00	1,990 MW	1,870 MW
8 Nov, 15:00	2,044 MW	1,910 MW
8 Nov, 16:00	2,081 MW	1,920 MW
8 Nov, 17:00	2,131 MW	1,935 MW
8 Nov, 18:00	2,220 MW	2,020 MW
8 Nov, 19:00	2,195 MW	2,015 MW
8 Nov, 20:00	2,154 MW	1,985 MW
8 Nov, 21:00	2,132 MW	1,925 MW
8 Nov, 22:00	2,053 MW	1,845 MW
8 Nov, 23:00	1,903 MW	1,730 MW
9 Nov, 00:00	1,772 MW	1,630 MW
9 Nov, 01:00	1,644 MW	1,535 MW
9 Nov, 02:00	1,572 MW	1,460 MW
9 Nov, 03:00	1,532 MW	1,410 MW
9 Nov, 04:00	1,483 MW	1,405 MW
9 Nov, 05:00	1,497 MW	1,415 MW
9 Nov, 06:00	1,552 MW	1,445 MW
9 Nov, 07:00	1,650 MW	1,535 MW
9 Nov, 08:00	1,824 MW	1,680 MW
9 Nov, 09:00	1,975 MW	1,840 MW
9 Nov, 10:00	2,031 MW	1,910 MW
9 Nov, 11:00	2,065 MW	1,930 MW
9 Nov, 12:00	2,039 MW	1,910 MW
9 Nov, 13:00	2,001 MW	1,900 MW
9 Nov, 14:00	2,037 MW	1,925 MW
9 Nov, 15:00	2,103 MW	1,950 MW
9 Nov, 16:00	2,167 MW	1,960 MW
9 Nov, 17:00	2,233 MW	1,995 MW
9 Nov, 18:00	2,211 MW	2,070 MW
9 Nov, 19:00	2,006 MW	2,060 MW
9 Nov, 20:00	2,082 MW	2,020 MW
9 Nov, 21:00	2,087 MW	1,960 MW
9 Nov, 22:00	2,117 MW	1,870 MW
9 Nov, 23:00	1,972 MW	1,760 MW
10 Nov, 00:00	1,788 MW	1,765 MW
10 Nov, 01:00	1,642 MW	1,635 MW
10 Nov, 02:00	1,570 MW	1,565 MW
10 Nov, 03:00	1,532 MW	1,525 MW
10 Nov, 04:00	1,535 MW	1,485 MW
10 Nov, 05:00	1,547 MW	1,490 MW
10 Nov, 06:00	1,582 MW	1,545 MW
10 Nov, 07:00	1,674 MW	1,645 MW
10 Nov, 08:00	1,834 MW	1,815 MW
10 Nov, 09:00	1,955 MW	1,965 MW
10 Nov, 10:00	1,999 MW	2,025 MW
10 Nov, 11:00	1,971 MW	2,045 MW
10 Nov, 12:00	1,936 MW	2,035 MW
10 Nov, 13:00	1,884 MW	2,030 MW
10 Nov, 14:00	1,900 MW	2,045 MW
10 Nov, 15:00	1,932 MW	2,060 MW
10 Nov, 16:00	1,986 MW	2,085 MW
10 Nov, 17:00	2,084 MW	2,135 MW
10 Nov, 18:00	2,216 MW	2,240 MW
10 Nov, 19:00	2,243 MW	2,210 MW
10 Nov, 20:00	2,205 MW	2,175 MW
10 Nov, 21:00	2,165 MW	2,125 MW
10 Nov, 22:00	2,070 MW	2,050 MW
10 Nov, 23:00	1,938 MW	1,920 MW
11 Nov, 00:00	1,799 MW	1,790 MW
11 Nov, 01:00	1,660 MW	1,640 MW
11 Nov, 02:00	1,577 MW	1,570 MW
11 Nov, 03:00	1,530 MW	1,530 MW
11 Nov, 04:00	1,517 MW	1,535 MW
11 Nov, 05:00	1,510 MW	1,545 MW
11 Nov, 06:00	1,552 MW	1,580 MW
11 Nov, 07:00	1,653 MW	1,675 MW
11 Nov, 08:00	1,856 MW	1,835 MW
11 Nov, 09:00	1,976 MW	1,965 MW
11 Nov, 10:00	2,024 MW	2,010 MW
11 Nov, 11:00	1,972 MW	1,980 MW
11 Nov, 12:00	1,924 MW	1,950 MW
11 Nov, 13:00	1,874 MW	1,940 MW
11 Nov, 14:00	1,902 MW	1,970 MW
11 Nov, 15:00	1,898 MW	2,040 MW
11 Nov, 16:00	2,001 MW	2,090 MW
11 Nov, 17:00	2,107 MW	2,160 MW
11 Nov, 18:00	2,262 MW	2,270 MW
11 Nov, 19:00	2,288 MW	2,240 MW
11 Nov, 20:00	2,251 MW	2,200 MW
11 Nov, 21:00	2,190 MW	2,160 MW
11 Nov, 22:00	2,113 MW	2,085 MW
11 Nov, 23:00	1,980 MW	1,940 MW
12 Nov, 00:00	1,839 MW	1,800 MW
12 Nov, 01:00	1,701 MW	1,665 MW
12 Nov, 02:00	1,622 MW	1,580 MW
12 Nov, 03:00	1,575 MW	1,535 MW
12 Nov, 04:00	1,559 MW	1,520 MW
12 Nov, 05:00	1,530 MW	1,515 MW
12 Nov, 06:00	1,561 MW	1,555 MW
12 Nov, 07:00	1,657 MW	1,655 MW
12 Nov, 08:00	1,800 MW	1,850 MW
12 Nov, 09:00	1,951 MW	1,970 MW
12 Nov, 10:00	2,060 MW	2,020 MW
12 Nov, 11:00	2,043 MW	1,975 MW
12 Nov, 12:00	2,014 MW	1,950 MW
12 Nov, 13:00	1,978 MW	1,890 MW
12 Nov, 14:00	2,011 MW	1,910 MW
12 Nov, 15:00	2,052 MW	1,955 MW
12 Nov, 16:00	2,094 MW	1,980 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (560 of 689 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ge/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ge/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ge_2026,
  title = {{Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ge/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ge/

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Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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