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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sicily was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 81% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 279 MW (19.3%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sicily was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 81% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 279 MW (19.3%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Sicily came 20 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 53 MW, against average demand of 1,701 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 53% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error3.1%
Bias+0.4%
Hours within 5%81%
Worst miss279 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+5 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 279 MW (19.3%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 1,725 MW, reported 1,447 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy Sicily day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Sicily over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Sicily over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:001,960 MW1,980 MW
5 Nov, 15:002,017 MW2,003 MW
5 Nov, 16:002,035 MW2,020 MW
5 Nov, 17:002,157 MW2,185 MW
5 Nov, 18:002,186 MW2,238 MW
5 Nov, 19:002,236 MW2,315 MW
5 Nov, 20:002,170 MW2,258 MW
5 Nov, 21:001,996 MW2,088 MW
5 Nov, 22:001,855 MW1,920 MW
5 Nov, 23:001,653 MW1,730 MW
6 Nov, 00:001,503 MW1,493 MW
6 Nov, 01:001,404 MW1,383 MW
6 Nov, 02:001,353 MW1,335 MW
6 Nov, 03:001,331 MW1,325 MW
6 Nov, 04:001,350 MW1,333 MW
6 Nov, 05:001,415 MW1,405 MW
6 Nov, 06:001,581 MW1,563 MW
6 Nov, 07:001,835 MW1,843 MW
6 Nov, 08:001,983 MW2,020 MW
6 Nov, 09:002,021 MW2,073 MW
6 Nov, 10:001,999 MW2,038 MW
6 Nov, 11:001,975 MW1,990 MW
6 Nov, 12:001,993 MW1,943 MW
6 Nov, 13:001,891 MW1,878 MW
6 Nov, 14:001,888 MW1,955 MW
6 Nov, 15:001,940 MW1,958 MW
6 Nov, 16:002,003 MW2,000 MW
6 Nov, 17:002,162 MW2,105 MW
6 Nov, 18:002,202 MW2,163 MW
6 Nov, 19:002,245 MW2,230 MW
6 Nov, 20:002,172 MW2,173 MW
6 Nov, 21:002,004 MW2,000 MW
6 Nov, 22:001,819 MW1,840 MW
6 Nov, 23:001,652 MW1,643 MW
7 Nov, 00:001,502 MW1,488 MW
7 Nov, 01:001,400 MW1,393 MW
7 Nov, 02:001,336 MW1,333 MW
7 Nov, 03:001,315 MW1,318 MW
7 Nov, 04:001,318 MW1,323 MW
7 Nov, 05:001,375 MW1,390 MW
7 Nov, 06:001,458 MW1,470 MW
7 Nov, 07:001,598 MW1,583 MW
7 Nov, 08:001,738 MW1,728 MW
7 Nov, 09:001,821 MW1,780 MW
7 Nov, 10:001,817 MW1,715 MW
7 Nov, 11:001,776 MW1,710 MW
7 Nov, 12:001,733 MW1,695 MW
7 Nov, 13:001,689 MW1,725 MW
7 Nov, 14:001,683 MW1,823 MW
7 Nov, 15:001,685 MW1,868 MW
7 Nov, 16:001,816 MW1,923 MW
7 Nov, 17:002,110 MW2,060 MW
7 Nov, 18:002,148 MW2,118 MW
7 Nov, 19:002,190 MW2,148 MW
7 Nov, 20:002,119 MW2,080 MW
7 Nov, 21:001,948 MW1,885 MW
7 Nov, 22:001,800 MW1,758 MW
7 Nov, 23:001,669 MW1,610 MW
8 Nov, 00:001,490 MW1,463 MW
8 Nov, 01:001,396 MW1,368 MW
8 Nov, 02:001,326 MW1,295 MW
8 Nov, 03:001,285 MW1,255 MW
8 Nov, 04:001,273 MW1,253 MW
8 Nov, 05:001,304 MW1,270 MW
8 Nov, 06:001,338 MW1,300 MW
8 Nov, 07:001,412 MW1,368 MW
8 Nov, 08:001,523 MW1,528 MW
8 Nov, 09:001,687 MW1,615 MW
8 Nov, 10:001,749 MW1,600 MW
8 Nov, 11:001,784 MW1,670 MW
8 Nov, 12:001,758 MW1,685 MW
8 Nov, 13:001,652 MW1,623 MW
8 Nov, 14:001,479 MW1,640 MW
8 Nov, 15:001,531 MW1,678 MW
8 Nov, 16:001,614 MW1,688 MW
8 Nov, 17:001,827 MW1,830 MW
8 Nov, 18:001,886 MW1,890 MW
8 Nov, 19:001,937 MW1,933 MW
8 Nov, 20:001,926 MW1,935 MW
8 Nov, 21:001,805 MW1,820 MW
8 Nov, 22:001,658 MW1,700 MW
8 Nov, 23:001,497 MW1,528 MW
9 Nov, 00:001,356 MW1,368 MW
9 Nov, 01:001,254 MW1,268 MW
9 Nov, 02:001,199 MW1,218 MW
9 Nov, 03:001,183 MW1,203 MW
9 Nov, 04:001,196 MW1,238 MW
9 Nov, 05:001,277 MW1,308 MW
9 Nov, 06:001,454 MW1,463 MW
9 Nov, 07:001,677 MW1,713 MW
9 Nov, 08:001,785 MW1,873 MW
9 Nov, 09:001,871 MW1,928 MW
9 Nov, 10:001,880 MW1,900 MW
9 Nov, 11:001,847 MW1,885 MW
9 Nov, 12:001,811 MW1,840 MW
9 Nov, 13:001,780 MW1,828 MW
9 Nov, 14:001,806 MW1,838 MW
9 Nov, 15:001,842 MW1,848 MW
9 Nov, 16:001,903 MW1,930 MW
9 Nov, 17:002,078 MW2,103 MW
9 Nov, 18:002,116 MW2,178 MW
9 Nov, 19:002,183 MW2,240 MW
9 Nov, 20:002,136 MW2,195 MW
9 Nov, 21:001,967 MW2,020 MW
9 Nov, 22:001,796 MW1,835 MW
9 Nov, 23:001,594 MW1,635 MW
10 Nov, 00:001,473 MW1,485 MW
10 Nov, 01:001,383 MW1,395 MW
10 Nov, 02:001,325 MW1,330 MW
10 Nov, 03:001,316 MW1,313 MW
10 Nov, 04:001,327 MW1,323 MW
10 Nov, 05:001,411 MW1,405 MW
10 Nov, 06:001,566 MW1,568 MW
10 Nov, 07:001,808 MW1,808 MW
10 Nov, 08:001,940 MW1,925 MW
10 Nov, 09:001,934 MW1,950 MW
10 Nov, 10:001,881 MW1,980 MW
10 Nov, 11:001,839 MW1,930 MW
10 Nov, 12:001,789 MW1,905 MW
10 Nov, 13:001,767 MW1,873 MW
10 Nov, 14:001,771 MW1,858 MW
10 Nov, 15:001,856 MW1,905 MW
10 Nov, 16:001,955 MW1,963 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,104 MW2,115 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,150 MW2,165 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,200 MW2,220 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,137 MW2,160 MW
10 Nov, 21:001,973 MW2,008 MW
10 Nov, 22:001,791 MW1,843 MW
10 Nov, 23:001,617 MW1,630 MW
11 Nov, 00:001,478 MW1,490 MW
11 Nov, 01:001,371 MW1,380 MW
11 Nov, 02:001,308 MW1,330 MW
11 Nov, 03:001,293 MW1,308 MW
11 Nov, 04:001,310 MW1,315 MW
11 Nov, 05:001,393 MW1,388 MW
11 Nov, 06:001,554 MW1,568 MW
11 Nov, 07:001,775 MW1,770 MW
11 Nov, 08:001,895 MW1,910 MW
11 Nov, 09:001,940 MW1,928 MW
11 Nov, 10:001,909 MW1,885 MW
11 Nov, 11:001,856 MW1,858 MW
11 Nov, 12:001,819 MW1,830 MW
11 Nov, 13:001,781 MW1,785 MW
11 Nov, 14:001,796 MW1,833 MW
11 Nov, 15:001,892 MW1,900 MW
11 Nov, 16:001,961 MW1,945 MW
11 Nov, 17:002,153 MW2,128 MW
11 Nov, 18:002,166 MW2,193 MW
11 Nov, 19:002,193 MW2,233 MW
11 Nov, 20:002,125 MW2,188 MW
11 Nov, 21:001,936 MW2,035 MW
11 Nov, 22:001,793 MW1,845 MW
11 Nov, 23:001,640 MW1,635 MW
12 Nov, 00:001,528 MW1,478 MW
12 Nov, 01:001,419 MW1,383 MW
12 Nov, 02:001,396 MW1,333 MW
12 Nov, 03:001,364 MW1,318 MW
12 Nov, 04:001,337 MW1,320 MW
12 Nov, 05:001,412 MW1,383 MW
12 Nov, 06:001,580 MW1,545 MW
12 Nov, 07:001,778 MW1,778 MW
12 Nov, 08:001,901 MW1,898 MW
12 Nov, 09:002,046 MW1,925 MW
12 Nov, 10:001,957 MW1,903 MW
12 Nov, 11:001,918 MW1,903 MW
12 Nov, 12:001,893 MW1,868 MW
12 Nov, 13:001,884 MW1,858 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sici/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sici/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_sici_2026,
  title = {{Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sici/}
}

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