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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

Portugal Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 15 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Portugal was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 93% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,435 MW (18.9%) too low at 11 Nov 2026, 12:00 WET (UTC+00:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Lisbon).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Portugal was off by 2.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026, and 93% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,435 MW (18.9%) too low at 11 Nov 2026, 12:00 WET (UTC+00:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Portugal came 10 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 134 MW, against average demand of 6,039 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 32% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 15 October to 12 November 2026
Average error2.2%
Bias-1.1%
Hours within 5%93%
Worst miss1,435 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-70 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,435 MW (18.9%) too low at 11 Nov 2026, 12:00 WET (UTC+00:00): forecast 6,175 MW, reported 7,610 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 WET (UTC+00:00)
Portugal day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Portugal over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 WET (UTC+00:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 5 Nov, 14:006 Nov, 14:007 Nov, 14:008 Nov, 14:009 Nov, 14:0010 Nov, 14:0011 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Portugal over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 13:00 WET (UTC+00:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 14:006,687 MW6,573 MW
5 Nov, 15:006,792 MW6,758 MW
5 Nov, 16:007,058 MW7,048 MW
5 Nov, 17:007,406 MW7,400 MW
5 Nov, 18:007,867 MW7,894 MW
5 Nov, 19:008,136 MW8,057 MW
5 Nov, 20:007,903 MW7,896 MW
5 Nov, 21:007,454 MW7,444 MW
5 Nov, 22:006,848 MW6,856 MW
5 Nov, 23:006,185 MW6,149 MW
6 Nov, 00:005,670 MW5,604 MW
6 Nov, 01:005,298 MW5,260 MW
6 Nov, 02:005,076 MW5,051 MW
6 Nov, 03:004,937 MW4,942 MW
6 Nov, 04:004,857 MW4,902 MW
6 Nov, 05:004,963 MW4,990 MW
6 Nov, 06:005,443 MW5,447 MW
6 Nov, 07:006,173 MW6,212 MW
6 Nov, 08:006,992 MW6,963 MW
6 Nov, 09:007,435 MW7,213 MW
6 Nov, 10:007,439 MW7,249 MW
6 Nov, 11:007,547 MW7,379 MW
6 Nov, 12:007,570 MW7,331 MW
6 Nov, 13:007,606 MW7,362 MW
6 Nov, 14:007,783 MW7,584 MW
6 Nov, 15:007,628 MW7,595 MW
6 Nov, 16:007,586 MW7,619 MW
6 Nov, 17:007,695 MW7,717 MW
6 Nov, 18:008,011 MW7,984 MW
6 Nov, 19:008,187 MW8,096 MW
6 Nov, 20:007,954 MW7,892 MW
6 Nov, 21:007,466 MW7,403 MW
6 Nov, 22:006,882 MW6,799 MW
6 Nov, 23:006,233 MW6,144 MW
7 Nov, 00:005,702 MW5,667 MW
7 Nov, 01:005,310 MW5,235 MW
7 Nov, 02:005,015 MW4,991 MW
7 Nov, 03:004,841 MW4,838 MW
7 Nov, 04:004,745 MW4,763 MW
7 Nov, 05:004,819 MW4,757 MW
7 Nov, 06:004,987 MW4,939 MW
7 Nov, 07:005,183 MW5,167 MW
7 Nov, 08:005,741 MW5,591 MW
7 Nov, 09:006,077 MW5,960 MW
7 Nov, 10:006,117 MW6,203 MW
7 Nov, 11:006,117 MW6,290 MW
7 Nov, 12:006,141 MW6,325 MW
7 Nov, 13:006,112 MW6,221 MW
7 Nov, 14:006,027 MW6,185 MW
7 Nov, 15:006,048 MW6,165 MW
7 Nov, 16:006,034 MW6,247 MW
7 Nov, 17:006,385 MW6,598 MW
7 Nov, 18:006,857 MW6,966 MW
7 Nov, 19:006,974 MW7,077 MW
7 Nov, 20:006,727 MW6,894 MW
7 Nov, 21:006,294 MW6,463 MW
7 Nov, 22:005,895 MW6,025 MW
7 Nov, 23:005,521 MW5,567 MW
8 Nov, 00:005,238 MW5,139 MW
8 Nov, 01:004,951 MW4,771 MW
8 Nov, 02:004,709 MW4,529 MW
8 Nov, 03:004,591 MW4,420 MW
8 Nov, 04:004,500 MW4,364 MW
8 Nov, 05:004,497 MW4,380 MW
8 Nov, 06:004,622 MW4,484 MW
8 Nov, 07:004,721 MW4,593 MW
8 Nov, 08:005,060 MW4,959 MW
8 Nov, 09:005,322 MW5,329 MW
8 Nov, 10:005,690 MW5,697 MW
8 Nov, 11:006,046 MW6,000 MW
8 Nov, 12:006,295 MW6,167 MW
8 Nov, 13:006,096 MW5,986 MW
8 Nov, 14:005,955 MW5,897 MW
8 Nov, 15:005,963 MW5,859 MW
8 Nov, 16:006,044 MW5,919 MW
8 Nov, 17:006,414 MW6,262 MW
8 Nov, 18:006,851 MW6,625 MW
8 Nov, 19:007,027 MW6,759 MW
8 Nov, 20:006,882 MW6,631 MW
8 Nov, 21:006,464 MW6,209 MW
8 Nov, 22:005,965 MW5,779 MW
8 Nov, 23:005,492 MW5,324 MW
9 Nov, 00:005,172 MW5,013 MW
9 Nov, 01:004,891 MW4,770 MW
9 Nov, 02:004,724 MW4,575 MW
9 Nov, 03:004,639 MW4,493 MW
9 Nov, 04:004,557 MW4,473 MW
9 Nov, 05:004,643 MW4,613 MW
9 Nov, 06:005,245 MW5,116 MW
9 Nov, 07:005,933 MW5,860 MW
9 Nov, 08:006,730 MW6,720 MW
9 Nov, 09:006,931 MW7,079 MW
9 Nov, 10:007,003 MW7,157 MW
9 Nov, 11:007,287 MW7,420 MW
9 Nov, 12:007,322 MW7,413 MW
9 Nov, 13:007,192 MW7,337 MW
9 Nov, 14:007,434 MW7,455 MW
9 Nov, 15:007,482 MW7,398 MW
9 Nov, 16:007,434 MW7,421 MW
9 Nov, 17:007,574 MW7,564 MW
9 Nov, 18:007,869 MW7,814 MW
9 Nov, 19:008,049 MW7,951 MW
9 Nov, 20:007,808 MW7,733 MW
9 Nov, 21:007,302 MW7,230 MW
9 Nov, 22:006,679 MW6,621 MW
9 Nov, 23:006,066 MW5,956 MW
10 Nov, 00:005,749 MW5,527 MW
10 Nov, 01:005,440 MW5,204 MW
10 Nov, 02:005,193 MW5,006 MW
10 Nov, 03:005,068 MW4,883 MW
10 Nov, 04:004,978 MW4,842 MW
10 Nov, 05:005,079 MW4,957 MW
10 Nov, 06:005,523 MW5,404 MW
10 Nov, 07:006,203 MW6,104 MW
10 Nov, 08:006,978 MW6,900 MW
10 Nov, 09:007,256 MW7,293 MW
10 Nov, 10:007,387 MW7,372 MW
10 Nov, 11:007,559 MW7,462 MW
10 Nov, 12:007,514 MW7,327 MW
10 Nov, 13:007,479 MW7,284 MW
10 Nov, 14:007,602 MW7,515 MW
10 Nov, 15:007,630 MW7,536 MW
10 Nov, 16:007,642 MW7,538 MW
10 Nov, 17:007,732 MW7,736 MW
10 Nov, 18:008,004 MW7,856 MW
10 Nov, 19:008,180 MW7,944 MW
10 Nov, 20:007,953 MW7,732 MW
10 Nov, 21:007,431 MW7,193 MW
10 Nov, 22:006,861 MW6,626 MW
10 Nov, 23:006,215 MW5,991 MW
11 Nov, 00:005,733 MW5,593 MW
11 Nov, 01:005,407 MW5,269 MW
11 Nov, 02:005,169 MW5,049 MW
11 Nov, 03:004,963 MW4,920 MW
11 Nov, 04:004,863 MW4,864 MW
11 Nov, 05:004,938 MW4,904 MW
11 Nov, 06:005,158 MW5,161 MW
11 Nov, 07:005,503 MW5,534 MW
11 Nov, 08:006,319 MW6,153 MW
11 Nov, 09:006,899 MW6,379 MW
11 Nov, 10:007,215 MW6,326 MW
11 Nov, 11:007,545 MW6,261 MW
11 Nov, 12:007,610 MW6,175 MW
11 Nov, 13:007,455 MW6,078 MW
11 Nov, 14:007,333 MW6,229 MW
11 Nov, 15:007,169 MW6,264 MW
11 Nov, 16:007,127 MW6,336 MW
11 Nov, 17:007,284 MW6,438 MW
11 Nov, 18:007,573 MW6,692 MW
11 Nov, 19:007,701 MW7,118 MW
11 Nov, 20:007,350 MW7,241 MW
11 Nov, 21:006,794 MW7,126 MW
11 Nov, 22:006,265 MW6,631 MW
11 Nov, 23:005,725 MW6,045 MW
12 Nov, 00:005,284 MW5,433 MW
12 Nov, 01:005,053 MW5,138 MW
12 Nov, 02:004,842 MW4,944 MW
12 Nov, 03:004,767 MW4,850 MW
12 Nov, 04:004,772 MW4,825 MW
12 Nov, 05:004,842 MW4,946 MW
12 Nov, 06:005,216 MW5,394 MW
12 Nov, 07:006,048 MW6,134 MW
12 Nov, 08:006,745 MW6,924 MW
12 Nov, 09:007,003 MW7,180 MW
12 Nov, 10:006,500 MW7,144 MW
12 Nov, 11:006,536 MW7,186 MW
12 Nov, 12:006,440 MW7,009 MW
12 Nov, 13:006,402 MW6,977 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Portugal Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pt/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Portugal Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pt/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pt_2026,
  title = {{Portugal Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pt/}
}

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