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Built 2026-11-12 (12 November 2026)

SRP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 13 October to 12 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SRP was off by 29.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 17% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +26.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,095 MW (104.0%) too high at 27 Oct 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Phoenix).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SRP was off by 29.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026, and 17% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +26.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,095 MW (104.0%) too high at 27 Oct 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SRP came 50 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 724 MW, against average demand of 3,083 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 84% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 13 October to 12 November 2026
Average error29.1%
Bias+26.6%
Hours within 5%17%
Worst miss2,095 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+624 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 2,095 MW (104.0%) too high at 27 Oct 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 4,109 MW, reported 2,014 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-12. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
SRP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SRP over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 5 Nov, 06:006 Nov, 06:007 Nov, 06:008 Nov, 06:009 Nov, 06:0010 Nov, 06:0011 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SRP over the last 7 days of the window, to 12 Nov 2026, 05:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-12
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
5 Nov, 06:002,505 MW3,487 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,890 MW3,542 MW
5 Nov, 08:003,197 MW3,432 MW
5 Nov, 09:003,111 MW3,387 MW
5 Nov, 10:003,092 MW3,352 MW
5 Nov, 11:003,318 MW3,375 MW
5 Nov, 12:003,597 MW3,423 MW
5 Nov, 13:003,845 MW3,508 MW
5 Nov, 14:003,967 MW3,587 MW
5 Nov, 15:004,135 MW3,715 MW
5 Nov, 16:004,138 MW3,846 MW
5 Nov, 17:004,119 MW3,969 MW
5 Nov, 18:003,971 MW4,022 MW
5 Nov, 19:003,839 MW3,960 MW
5 Nov, 20:003,921 MW3,864 MW
5 Nov, 21:003,802 MW3,746 MW
5 Nov, 22:003,589 MW3,550 MW
5 Nov, 23:003,343 MW3,369 MW
6 Nov, 00:003,342 MW3,286 MW
6 Nov, 01:003,303 MW3,200 MW
6 Nov, 02:003,323 MW3,066 MW
6 Nov, 03:003,387 MW3,088 MW
6 Nov, 04:003,480 MW3,095 MW
6 Nov, 05:003,588 MW3,238 MW
6 Nov, 06:003,727 MW3,439 MW
6 Nov, 07:003,824 MW3,486 MW
6 Nov, 08:003,644 MW3,438 MW
6 Nov, 09:003,460 MW3,431 MW
6 Nov, 10:003,345 MW3,424 MW
6 Nov, 11:003,512 MW3,455 MW
6 Nov, 12:003,756 MW3,510 MW
6 Nov, 13:003,824 MW3,587 MW
6 Nov, 14:003,828 MW3,649 MW
6 Nov, 15:003,821 MW3,738 MW
6 Nov, 16:004,039 MW3,845 MW
6 Nov, 17:004,236 MW3,937 MW
6 Nov, 18:004,382 MW3,970 MW
6 Nov, 19:004,461 MW3,882 MW
6 Nov, 20:004,465 MW3,777 MW
6 Nov, 21:004,215 MW3,666 MW
6 Nov, 22:004,109 MW3,519 MW
6 Nov, 23:003,927 MW3,388 MW
7 Nov, 00:003,859 MW3,415 MW
7 Nov, 01:003,777 MW3,326 MW
7 Nov, 02:003,765 MW3,213 MW
7 Nov, 03:003,705 MW3,106 MW
7 Nov, 04:003,652 MW3,094 MW
7 Nov, 05:003,517 MW3,143 MW
7 Nov, 06:003,612 MW3,218 MW
7 Nov, 07:003,658 MW3,204 MW
7 Nov, 08:003,674 MW3,205 MW
7 Nov, 09:003,779 MW3,270 MW
7 Nov, 10:003,867 MW3,344 MW
7 Nov, 11:003,848 MW3,409 MW
7 Nov, 12:003,812 MW3,484 MW
7 Nov, 13:003,951 MW3,583 MW
7 Nov, 14:004,076 MW3,647 MW
7 Nov, 15:004,192 MW3,714 MW
7 Nov, 16:004,404 MW3,842 MW
7 Nov, 17:004,512 MW3,920 MW
7 Nov, 18:004,541 MW3,936 MW
7 Nov, 19:004,551 MW3,858 MW
7 Nov, 20:004,464 MW3,772 MW
7 Nov, 21:004,371 MW3,677 MW
7 Nov, 22:004,165 MW3,524 MW
7 Nov, 23:003,973 MW3,386 MW
8 Nov, 00:003,759 MW3,381 MW
8 Nov, 01:003,516 MW3,279 MW
8 Nov, 02:003,184 MW3,203 MW
8 Nov, 03:002,880 MW3,079 MW
8 Nov, 04:002,962 MW3,103 MW
8 Nov, 05:002,962 MW3,145 MW
8 Nov, 06:003,009 MW3,206 MW
8 Nov, 07:002,716 MW3,170 MW
8 Nov, 08:002,960 MW3,168 MW
8 Nov, 09:002,845 MW3,236 MW
8 Nov, 10:002,633 MW3,318 MW
8 Nov, 11:002,945 MW3,419 MW
8 Nov, 12:003,453 MW3,520 MW
8 Nov, 13:003,868 MW3,632 MW
8 Nov, 14:004,155 MW3,720 MW
8 Nov, 15:004,400 MW3,768 MW
8 Nov, 16:004,657 MW3,910 MW
8 Nov, 17:004,797 MW3,978 MW
8 Nov, 18:004,779 MW4,033 MW
8 Nov, 19:004,637 MW3,962 MW
8 Nov, 20:004,449 MW3,905 MW
8 Nov, 21:004,219 MW3,784 MW
8 Nov, 22:003,970 MW3,601 MW
8 Nov, 23:003,752 MW3,411 MW
9 Nov, 00:003,499 MW3,245 MW
9 Nov, 01:003,144 MW3,145 MW
9 Nov, 02:002,871 MW3,101 MW
9 Nov, 03:002,753 MW3,119 MW
9 Nov, 04:002,552 MW3,175 MW
9 Nov, 05:002,713 MW3,318 MW
9 Nov, 06:002,905 MW3,500 MW
9 Nov, 07:002,865 MW3,538 MW
9 Nov, 08:002,896 MW3,475 MW
9 Nov, 09:002,946 MW3,476 MW
9 Nov, 10:002,902 MW3,492 MW
9 Nov, 11:003,004 MW3,557 MW
9 Nov, 12:003,280 MW3,648 MW
9 Nov, 13:003,514 MW3,753 MW
9 Nov, 14:003,753 MW3,860 MW
9 Nov, 15:003,983 MW3,924 MW
9 Nov, 16:004,212 MW4,035 MW
9 Nov, 17:004,100 MW4,103 MW
9 Nov, 18:004,065 MW4,146 MW
9 Nov, 19:003,837 MW4,109 MW
9 Nov, 20:003,525 MW4,030 MW
9 Nov, 21:003,302 MW3,918 MW
9 Nov, 22:002,947 MW3,706 MW
9 Nov, 23:002,584 MW3,497 MW
10 Nov, 00:002,425 MW3,336 MW
10 Nov, 01:002,292 MW3,208 MW
10 Nov, 02:002,191 MW3,110 MW
10 Nov, 03:002,148 MW3,068 MW
10 Nov, 04:002,000 MW3,106 MW
10 Nov, 05:002,298 MW3,243 MW
10 Nov, 06:002,589 MW3,462 MW
10 Nov, 07:002,743 MW3,529 MW
10 Nov, 08:002,852 MW3,495 MW
10 Nov, 09:002,970 MW3,490 MW
10 Nov, 10:003,035 MW3,543 MW
10 Nov, 11:003,054 MW3,611 MW
10 Nov, 12:002,855 MW3,733 MW
10 Nov, 13:002,903 MW3,884 MW
10 Nov, 14:002,942 MW4,024 MW
10 Nov, 15:002,996 MW4,148 MW
10 Nov, 16:003,165 MW4,261 MW
10 Nov, 17:002,922 MW4,306 MW
10 Nov, 18:002,699 MW4,225 MW
10 Nov, 19:002,450 MW4,103 MW
10 Nov, 20:002,471 MW4,005 MW
10 Nov, 21:002,603 MW3,886 MW
10 Nov, 22:002,517 MW3,650 MW
10 Nov, 23:002,514 MW3,424 MW
11 Nov, 00:002,473 MW3,272 MW
11 Nov, 01:002,415 MW3,195 MW
11 Nov, 02:002,316 MW3,121 MW
11 Nov, 03:002,375 MW3,079 MW
11 Nov, 04:002,488 MW3,113 MW
11 Nov, 05:002,630 MW3,206 MW
11 Nov, 06:002,694 MW3,355 MW
11 Nov, 07:002,443 MW3,421 MW
11 Nov, 08:002,176 MW3,461 MW
11 Nov, 09:002,132 MW3,495 MW
11 Nov, 10:002,217 MW3,538 MW
11 Nov, 11:002,298 MW3,604 MW
11 Nov, 12:002,775 MW3,712 MW
11 Nov, 13:003,309 MW3,858 MW
11 Nov, 14:003,730 MW4,022 MW
11 Nov, 15:004,076 MW4,177 MW
11 Nov, 16:004,360 MW4,249 MW
11 Nov, 17:004,288 MW4,261 MW
11 Nov, 18:004,319 MW4,156 MW
11 Nov, 19:004,251 MW4,084 MW
11 Nov, 20:004,180 MW3,973 MW
11 Nov, 21:004,162 MW3,866 MW
11 Nov, 22:003,973 MW3,658 MW
11 Nov, 23:003,758 MW3,437 MW
12 Nov, 00:003,601 MW3,249 MW
12 Nov, 01:003,487 MW3,096 MW
12 Nov, 02:003,504 MW3,040 MW
12 Nov, 03:003,487 MW3,034 MW
12 Nov, 04:003,415 MW3,089 MW
12 Nov, 05:003,349 MW3,227 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SRP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/srp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SRP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/srp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_srp_2026,
  title = {{SRP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-12. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/srp/}
}

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